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Talk baseball all season long with SI.com's Jacob Luft in Baseball Chatter, a journal for hot topic debates, Sabermetric ramblings and reader-driven discussions.
5/12/2006 12:52:00 PM

How is youth being served?

The Mets would rather keep Aaron Heilman in the bullpen than avoid a start by Jose Lima.
The Mets would rather keep Aaron Heilman in the bullpen than avoid a start by Jose Lima.
Chris Trotman/Getty Images
A first-place team is sending Jose Lima to the mound tonight, and it is doing so with a straight face. Injuries in the Mets' rotation have put them in a bind, and their solution somehow calls for the resurrection of Lima Time. They are calling up minor leaguer Jeremi Gonzalez to start on Saturday. Meanwhile, a suitable and willing option appears to be available in the form of young right-hander Aaron Heilman.

When New York announced in Spring Training that Brian Bannister, and not Heilman, would join the rotation, I believed it to be a mistake. Heilman was coming off of a vastly underrated season (108 IP, 106 Ks, 37 BB, 3.17 ERA, mostly in relief), and he had made his desire of being a starter clear. Then I saw Bannister pitch and was quite impressed with his stuff despite his control problems early on. More important, Heilman continued to excel in late-inning relief. I changed my mind on the issue. I now believe they made the right decision in choosing Bannister over Heilman.

However, Bannister is on the DL, as is Victor Zambrano. Is it the right time to bring Heilman into the rotation? How much is his mediocre performance as a starter last season (2-3, 4.71 ERA) factoring into the decision to keep him in the bullpen?

Maybe the Mets simply feel he doesn't have the repertoire of pitches needed to go deep into a ballgame, whereas one or two plus pitches is enough to be successful out of the 'pen, where he has played a crucial role. Baseball Prospectus has a statistic called "leverage" which measures how valuable a reliever's innings are to his team. The more a reliever is brought into pressure-packed situations, the higher his leverage. A leverage of 1.00 is the same importance as the start of a game. Heilman's leverage is 1.73, which is pretty high for a non-closer. Of more significance, he ranks in the top 20 in WXRL (Win Expectancy over Replacement Level), which measures a reliever's value in terms of wins added.

The Mets aren't the only club trying to figure out how best to use a talented young pitcher. Let's look at four others and see how they have been used so far:

  • Francisco Liriano, Twins: Minnesota's rotation has been awful. Meanwhile, Liriano has lived up to his billing as the next Johan Santana, striking out 28 batters and walking only four in 20 innings. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire put his starters on notice recently by stating that the kid is ready to start. He's brought Liriano along slowly; the kid has a leverage of only 0.71.

  • Brandon McCarthy, White Sox: His leverage is a healthy 1.29, though he has struggled a bit in terms of ERA (5.21). Reports have McCarthy making his first start of the season on Tuesday.

  • Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: Tony La Russa told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch this week that using the impressive Wainwright (15 Ks in 16 2/3 innings) to replace the injured Sidney Ponson in the rotation "is not real high up on the list of options." Wainwright hasn't been thrown into the fire but he hasn't been babied either, with a leverage of 0.96.

  • Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: The Red Sox could use an arm like Papelbon's in the rotation, but he has been so dominant as the closer that even the Sabermetric-minded Red Sox realize it doesn't make sense to move him out of that role now or in the near future. Besides, somebody with this haircut has to be a closer. If the Red Sox have to go with Lenny DiNardo every fifth day until David Wells gets back, so be it. Papelbon's leverage is about where it should be for a closer: 1.64.
    posted by JL | View comments |  
  • Comments:

    Posted: 2:17 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    Hello? Scott Proctor, anyone?
    Posted: 2:28 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    Winwright is the real deal and La Russa is wise to hold off on inserting him. However, with the Card's lack of pitching signed for next year, expect both Wainwright and Reyes to see quality time the second half of the season should the Card's puul ahead in the division after tha All-Star break like they have the last couple of years.
    Posted: 2:29 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    Dan Wheeler
    Up here in Minneapolis it is painfully obvious that Liriano deserves his shot. He inexplicably comes out of the bullpen and throws absolutely electric stuff, and yet despite the troubles of the rotation, he can't get an opportunity as a starter. Johan Santana had to go through the same routine when he first came up; back then it was common knowledge for everyone except for Twins management that we would be better served by having him as a starter rather than a reliever. It's the same scenario now, and Liriano may have even more upside than his predecessor. Enough already! In what is rapidly turning out to be a lost season, it's high time to get the kid in.
    -Blair Harmon/Minneapolis, MN
    Posted: 2:37 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    What about Zumaya?
    Posted: 2:37 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    Even though i bleed the Pinstripes, I dont agree with Scott Procter because but i don't think he has the duration and pitch-variation enough for the long-term. Plus, with Pavano slated to make his return within the month(lets hope he doesnt hurt his left buttcheek this time) yankees will be completely saturated (maybe not talent wise) at the starter position. Dotel is also coming back and you cant have 14 pitchers on the roster!! Look for Sturtze to be traded or put on waivers, b/c Procter seems to be our 7th inning guy (and a reliable one at that).
    Posted: 2:53 PM, May 12, 2006   by BB, Chicago
    McCarthy already started last year for most of September and was outstanding. He's actually pitched well most of the time this year despite the ERA. For example, the other night he came on in relief for four innings, and the only runs that scored happened in the 9th when Jenks came in and didn't have it, and he allowed the inherited runners to score.

    The only reason McCarthy isn't in the rotation already (he showed last year that he's ready) is that there's five proven guys already in the rotation. This isn't like some of the other teams who have starter problems -- the Sox need him more in the bullpen when their Fab Five are healthy.
    Posted: 2:59 PM, May 12, 2006   by matt brown
    as much as i'd love to see Papelbon in the rotation he has become an absolute weapon out of the pen. were it me, i would keep him as my closer forever. Finding a really good closer is hard to do, so why not keep this guy at the back of your bullpen and know you dont have to fill that position for the next 10 years. Besides it isnt like Boston doesnt have the resources to get another good quality starter. I know its far too early to compare but if he can do for boston what rivera has done for the spanks over the last 10 plus years you gotta keep him in that role.
    Posted: 3:07 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    The red sox don't need papelbon to be their long therm option at closer. Within the next two years, Craig Hansen will be closing for them. While Papelbon could become another Mariano Rivera, so could Hansen.
    Proctor is a hard thrower without enough pitches to get through the line-up a second time.
    Wheeler is 28-29 y.o. and has had a typical middle-reliever career -- a few up years, a few down. He too lacks variation in his pitches.
    What about the report out of Boston that the Sox may extend Hansen (a college and minor league closer) to take a role in the rotation?
    Posted: 3:13 PM, May 12, 2006   by Mike
    I agree, to a point, that Paps should be kept in the pen. He does have the stuff of a starter and we all know Schill only has one more season in him. Hopefully the Sox sign Beckett long term and Paps can make it into the rotation after next season with Henson taking on the closers role. Bottom line if the Papelbon pitches the way he is now in the rotation, and Lester and Henson are as good as they are said to be, the Red Sox front office has set the team up for pitching in a brilliant way.
    I think that the Mets have to use Heilman as a starter already. He pitched extremely well here in the Dominican Republic in the winter. So i think he's ready. McCarthy excels at what he's doing right now, besides thre ChiSox don't need a starter. As for Liriano, Gardenhire is doing the Santana-treatment on him, just like he did to his ace three years ago, he'll eventually start before the season ends. And Papelbon is the best young closer since Lidge a couple of years ago (i don't count Street).
    "finding a really good closer is hard to do, so why not keep this guy at the back of your bullpen and know you dont have to fill that position for the next 10 years. Besides it isnt like Boston doesnt have the resources to get another good quality starter."

    um...didn't you guys draft your closer or the next ten years, in last year's draft. craig hansen anyone?

    also, what about soriano in Seattle? or is he too injury prone to now serve as a starter?
    Posted: 3:33 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    The White Sox actually have seven guys who could be starters. The current five (Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras, Garland, and Vasquez), plus Neal Cotts and Brandon McCarthy.
    Posted: 3:33 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    I need to second the first Zumaya comment. He came up through the minors as a starter and almost won a spot this year. The kid repeatedly hits 100+ on the gun and has just wicked stuff.

    That said, he's the type that could become a Gagne/Rivera/Lidge-level closer if given the opportunity.

    I think a lot of where he ends up will have to do with how much faith the Tigers have in their other starters.
    Posted: 3:34 PM, May 12, 2006   by Andrew T.
    Scott Cassidy for the Padres - 19 K's in 19.2 innings. I would hate for the Pads to upset the balance that they have going right now, but Cassidy is the real deal and could be moved into the rotation if say, something should befall Woody Williams.
    Posted: 3:57 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    Very few closers are good to great year after year. As Joe Morgan is fond of saying "you need good starters to get you to a closer". The Bosox will need Papbleton to start because David Wells is about finished, Schilling is turning 40 and Clement is very inconsistent. Foulke might be able to handle the role until Hansen is ready. The Atlanta Braves won 14 division titles in a row with a different closer or two or three every year or so. Morgan is right: Closers are overrated and overpaid.
    Posted: 4:03 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    I don't think the Mets insistance on keeping Heilman in the bullpen is necessarily so perplexing. First of all, their bullpen (with the exception of Jorge Julio) has been lights out for most of the year. You don't mess with that. Second, it won't kill them to give Lima and Gonzalez, say, two starts each. At that point (hopefully), Bannister will be back from the DL and they can keep whoever did better as the fifth starter. If both Lima and Gonzalez struggle, then it's posslbe Heilman will be considered seriously again.
    Posted: 4:03 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    ease back on comparing any of these kids to Rivera. there are a lot of flash in the pan, young great arms, but no one has been able to have the impact Rivera has had from the pen.

    oh, and liriano is filthy.
    Posted: 4:11 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    with Ponson out only a couple weeks and the Cards only needing a fifth starter once during that time, why not give Wainwright an opportunity? He's already had a few multiple-inning relief appearances, is it too much to expect 5 innings? He had been a starter at every other level, and his pitching to this point has been terrific. He's earned a shot.
    Posted: 4:30 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    Hold on off Wainright. He's been too valuable coming out of the pen. I would rather see them bring up Reyes and see where he's at then start Wainright. Coming out of the pen in relief and preparing as a starter are two different animals. Why run the risk, when the Birds can keep him in a set up role, exposing him to big league hitting and then in the off season get him ready for a slot in the rotation.
    Posted: 4:42 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    It's time for the Mets to start working Julio into more pressurized situations late in the game. He has pitched much better lately and if he can be counted on in the 7th and 8th then moving Heilman into the rotation is a no brainer. You don't keep a potential 15 game winner in a marginal set-up role (Sanchez is the set-up guy) when you're two starters short.
    Posted: 4:49 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    It's incredibly important to not increase a pitcher's work load too much. Just look at the Cubs and how they seem to ruin young pitchers.

    I think the Twins played it perfectly with Santana. That should be a model for more teams to use.

    I'd also look at how the A's develop their young pitchers. They are establishing a pretty impressive track record with it.
    Posted: 5:11 PM, May 12, 2006   by Michael
    One young phenom I'd like to see starting but hasn't made his big league debut yet is the Dodgers Chad Billingsley. Their rotation (and especially their bullpen) has been subpar and I'd love to see them call him up to see what he can do.
    Posted: 5:15 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    There are a few problems with the Scott Proctor comparison.

    1) He is not young (29, which is middle aged to old for a baseball player)

    2) Up until the first few weeks of this year, he has not had a good career

    3) He doesn't seem to have anything except a decent fastball.

    Other than that he is a stud
    I think Cotts' days of starting are over, at least with the Sox. He is much to valuable to us in the 'pen. Besides Jenks and McCarthy he's the only one we can depend on.
    I'm pretty certain McCarthy will get Contreras' start against the Twins. McCarthy would have gotten the start against the Angels on Wednesday, but he had pitched in the previous two games and wasn't sufficiently stretched out to start. He pitched four solid innings in relief in that Wednesday game and looks to be in good position to start.

    -Jeeves
    www.chisoxblog.blogspot.com
    Posted: 5:30 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    The Mets bullpen has been one of its biggest srengths this year. I think that their decision to leave Heilman in the bullpen has more to do with the ineffectiveness of Jorge Julio. If Julio pitched better he could join Sanchez and Wagner as a 3 headed monster in their bullpen and they would be more comfortable with moving Heilman into the rotation. Right now I like the decision of keeping Heilman in the bullpen because Bannister should be back soon. I think if they could add another arm through a trade it would benefit them as they make a push to get into the playoffs.
    Echoing Blair's comments, why wouldn't you use Liriano as a starter? It's not the same situation as with the White Sox, where you have 5 proven and productive starters (when Contreras is healthy). Lohse, Radke and Silva have been absolutely atrocious this season, sporting a combined 8.1 ERA thus far. Get Liriano in there. There is no way that he can, even if he underperforms, do worse than any of those three. It makes sense for the future of the team--to give one of your most talented young pitchers a chance to learn the ropes--and for the present: He will help this offensively challenged team win far more games as a starter than he will as a reliever...
    Posted: 6:17 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    Papelbon' future is as a starter. PERIOD. The Red Sox can get much more out of him throwing 180+ innings with his stuff, then they can him only pitching 80 innings. Finding good closers is not that all that difficult go ask Billy Beane who went from Jason Isringhausen into Billy Koch into Keith Foulke into Huston Street. Every year there is some new closer(who throws in the mid 90's, with a decent hook) who goes out and saves 30-35 games with a sub 3 ERA, only to come back next season and get lit up like a Christmans tree. Closers are overrated, they always have been and will be. Having very good set-up men to get to your closer is alot more important then having a good closer. True finding a "Great" closer like a Billy Wagner or a Mo Rivera or even Gagne(pre-injury for his time was consistently dominant), who saves 40 games every season looking unhittable is very difficult. But there is a reason why front of the line starters get paid alot more then closers.
    Posted: 6:43 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    I agree with Mr. Luft. If the Mets are going to contend for a playoff berth, they need to place more emphasis on who starts. Their 2 aces, Pedro & Tom, have been awesome this year. After that, you got what? Traschel, an ordinary 500 pitcher. Bannister, completely unproven & hurt, who does not show command or belief in his pitches yet. Zambrano is a goner, perhaps from the Mets for good (can we have a do-over on that Kazmir trade)?
    The fact that Heilman clearly wishes to start might have a negative effect on his pitching short relief. Randolph & Minaya seem to love Julio's arm, so go ahead, make him the 8th inning guy. You gave away a serviceable starter for him (& a lovely wife, too).
    By July, the Mets rotation should be Pedro, Tom, Heilman, Pelfrey, and either Bannister, Traschel or Alay Soler (if he continues to improve down on the farm).
    If not, Lima, Maine, & Gonzalez will blow out games so early, you will not need effective short men anyway.
    Posted: 6:44 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    I'm a Cubs fan, but I know that Brandon McCarthy is the real deal for the boys on the South Side. He's really only had one or two bad outings whihc have killed his ERA, but this kid is going to be more than good. If Prior ever gets healthy, they're going to be dueling every year for a long time.
    Posted: 7:18 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    Scott Proctor seems like the type that would thrive in a starting rotation outside of NY. He just doesn't seem to have the "Yankee" blood flowing. Maybe in 20 years, after he's had a distinguished career, will Proctor come back to the Yankees as another overpaid has-been.

    Heilman is overrated as a starter and a reliever. He's not very effective against righties and when the pressure is on, he can't seem to get the tough out. The Mets need to import somebody quick. It doesn't have to be a superstar, but something needs to be done. I was wrong about the Cameron-Nady deal, but spot on with my assumption on the Benson-Julio deal. Julio only seems comfortable when Randolph throws him in with an 8+ run lead.

    I agree, Liriano is filthy. I wouldn't be quick to move him in to the rotation though. The Twins are in a monster of a Division. The few extra wins won't get them even close to the wild-card this year, so why risk it.
    Posted: 7:29 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    Scot Sheilds would have a solid starter, and I think the Angels know this.
    I believe the sox are waiting on Clemens to make a decision on what to do with Papelbon. If they sign Clemens then Papelbon is in the bullpen for the season. If Clemens signs with Houston then you'll see Papelbon moved to the rotation Foulke back as the closer and Hansen brought up and groomed into the role as a late inning impact pitcher like Papelbon was last season. As for the reports of making Hansen a starter.... that could be an awful idea. We KNOW Papelbon can start, and we believe strongly that Hansen can close... so why switch them? The sox have them makings of a very good young pitching staff in the next 2-3 years. with Schilling, Wakefield, and Wells retiring, Clement playing out his contract, you sign Beckett, move Papelbon to the rotation, bring up Lester, Alveraz, and Bucholz with Manny Delcarman, Edgar Martinez, and Lenny DiNardo setting up Craig Hansen.... I think Theo thinks too long term to not let that play out
    Posted: 10:26 PM, May 12, 2006   by Anonymous
    Everyone weighing in on Proctor saying he can't start are obviolusly forgetting the time he started a game last season and did a great job. Si x strong innings, I believe. I could be wrong about how long he pitched, but I do remember he did very well.

    Proctor has shown that he can pitch through pressure, having excelled in some tight situations this season (doing it all while his daughter was having serious health issues). He's also shown that he is in no way intimidated by big time hitters, throwing brush-back pitches to guys like Manny. I'm not saying that Proctor would be a Clemens caliber starter, but he would most certainly be able to hold his own in a starting role.
    Posted: 3:36 AM, May 13, 2006   by Anonymous
    I'm not sure about Proctor starting, and more importantly, the Yankees aren't hurting nearly as badly for a starter as they were last year...

    The Yankee's top 4 is good and solid enough to get them through the season (assuming that the real Randy Johnson will start showing up) the 5th spot is questionable but it would be real sad if Jaret Wright AND Carl Pavano combined can't get the job done..( that's 17 million combined salary.. Wang and Chacon combine for less than 4 Million and have been much more valuable)

    Proctor have been the most solid right handed non closer non set up guy out of the pen for the Yankees so far, combine that with their lack of starter needs.. I dont see why he will be a starter this year unless the injuires start recking up.

    I kinda agree that Papalbon should stay as the closer for the time being, the Sox's front four is fine, their 5th is bad but he doesn't need to come out that often .. unless someone in their front 4 goes down he should definately stay in a pretty shallow Boston pen ... (Papalbon, Timling and Foulke... and then..?)
    Posted: 5:45 PM, May 13, 2006   by Anonymous
    Where is the love for Dustin McGowen? As usual no thought for anyone on Canada's team...
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