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Talk baseball all season long with SI.com's Jacob Luft in Baseball Chatter, a journal for hot topic debates, Sabermetric ramblings and reader-driven discussions.6/02/2006 11:38:00 AM Dawn of the Dead
If we have learned anything from the past few seasons, it's that it's always too early to count a team out. How many of us know-it-all instapundits believed the Astros were dead and buried last season when they began 15-30? On June 15, Houston was 26-38. And they weren't even a good 26-38. They had been shut out 10 times, and they had lost games by scores of 16-0, 18-3 and 9-0. Shockingly, the Astros went 63-35 (.643) the rest of the season, won the wild card and their first NL pennant.
Rookie Francisco Liriano has won his first three starts since joining the Minnesota rotation.AP
The A's were thought to be done, too. Six feet under. Kaput. On May 29, 2005, they were 17-32. By June 9, they weren't much better at 23-36. Fast forward to the end of the season and there they were close to the 90-win mark again at 88-74 thanks to a 65-38 (.631) sprint to the finish. They didn't make the playoffs, but damned if anybody was going to second guess GM Billy Beane on his offseason strategies again.
In 2004 the bounceback team was the Atlanta Braves, who sat in fourth place in the NL East, 6.5 games back, as late as June 23 before making a blistering 64-28 (.696) charge and reclaiming their birthright as division champions. And let's not forget the Marlins of 2003 (19-29 on May 22) or the Angels of 2002, who started 6-14. Both of those clubs ended up sipping champagne in late October.
Will the trend continue this season? Is there a sleeping giant to be found? We can eliminate the following bottom-feeding ballclubs from consideration right away based on sheer lack of talent: Royals, Pirates, Marlins, Nationals, Mariners and Devil Rays. I feel 100 percent comfortable saying those teams are done. If you disagree, I'd love to hear why. I'd also like to have my buddy Erik Estrada sell you some real estate in Arkansas. Anyhow, here are five clubs that have looked terrible thus far but don't deserve the toe tag just yet:
Cubs (20-32)
A freefall has brought the Cubs to this unthinkable low: They are only two games better than the Pirates in the loss column. As tempting as it is to bury these guys right now -- just say the word and I'll go get my shovel -- I just can't do it. They have too much star power (Mark Prior and Derrek Lee) coming back and the bullpen isn't half-bad if Ryan Dempster can get hot again. The Jerry Hairston Jr.-for-Phil Nevin trade was a good first step; maybe now they realize that stockpiling second basemen is not the best way to build a roster.
Twins (24-29)
Using their best reliever, Joe Nathan, more often and in more high-leverage situations is a nice place to start, as is finding anybody to replace the out machines known as Rondell White and Tony Batista. Their über-contact pitchers -- Brad Radke and Carlos Silva -- have been shelled. Some of this could be bad luck -- the Twins are last in the majors in defensive efficiency (turning balls in play into outs) by a wide margin. Minnesota's saving grace is the potentially devastating one-two punch of Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano atop the rotation. They also have to hope first baseman Justin Morneau can blossom after a strong May (.839 OPS).
Angels (23-30)
Prospects are great until you actually have to use them. Jeff Mathis, Casey Kotchman and Dallas McPherson just haven't come through this season, and neither has a seasoned vet (Garret Anderson) who got old as soon as the ink dried on his lucrative contract extension. On the bright side, Bartolo Colon just made an impressive rehab start and they have the right Weaver in the rotation now. It's also reasonable to expect at least average production from Cuban defector Kendry Morales in one of the two corner infield spots that have been killing them all year.A's (25-29)
They are in much better shape than last year. They trail first-place Texas by only 3.5 games, and it's a good bet the Rangers will pull the same fade job they did last season. Once again, Oakland is a M*A*S*H unit, with Rich Harden still on the shelf and Mark Ellis going down this week with a broken thumb. But the way Barry Zito is pitching, you have to like their chances of getting hot once Harden returns. Huston Street's sophomore slump isn't helping matters any, that's for sure.
Brewers (26-28)
The offense is pretty good, especially with Bill Hall in the lineup every day. The problem has been pitching and defense -- they've allowed 34 more runs than any other NL team. Chalk much of that up to Ben Sheets' injury problems. Plus, they have been very poor defensively, leading the majors with 31 runners reached on errors. That's why it's so imperative to have a guy like Sheets making his starts every fifth day -- strikeout pitchers don't need much help from the defense.Comments:
The Twins' problems aren't a lack of talent, but how poorly that talent is deployed. Nathan doesn't pitch unless it's a save situation, Rondell White, Tony Batista and Juan Castro all get regular at bats, while some of their best young players rot. They also have Chicago, Cleveland and Detroit to contend with.The Cubs are D-U-N, done. While Derrick Lee maybe coming back, they've still got 7 other guys in the lineup who aren't playing well. Jacque Jones is having a much better May/June than April. Having an adequate Jones, a Derrick Lee who may not be as good after the injury, and 7 OPS black holes is not a good offense.
Tony Womack? Phil Nevin? An injury prone Prior and Wood? A manager who destroys his pitcher's arms? Real good combo there. Not to mention Maddox pitching like a 40 something after a hot April. And I'm failing to see why anyone would trade for him, Wood, or Prior as the rumor mill gets going.
The Cubs have no shot at the playoffs and will be lucky to not lose 95 or more games.I agree that Minnesotta, Oakland and the Angels are going to get better at season's end. But the Cubs are done, and the Central Division looks like a two team race once again, although Milwaukee can play .500 ball.
The thing i like about the Twins is what you noted: Santana and Liriano (My ROY pick in the offseason, darn Papelbon!!!).
The A's have too many injuries, and still their not all that bad. The team will eventually play better. They're the best team in the second half so far this decade.
The Angels will benefit when Bartolo comes, and Jerred Weaver is going to keep improving.I'll tell you why you can't eliminate the Pirates - because if so then you should take the Cubs and Brewers off your list. Did you see what they did to Milwaukee over the 4 game series they just swept? The first 3 were won by scores of 14-3, 12-1, 6-1, and they blanked the Cubs 8-0 the last time they played. Pittsburgh has a more potent offense than people think and they've been on fire since Sean Casey returned; the problem is their pitching keeps allowing the opponents to score one or two more. If they can get that under wraps, they can be a pretty decent team. Do I really think they're going anywhere this year - I wish, but not likely. But I also don't think the Cubs or Brewers are any better.the overrated snubs from chicago yes the cubs of course 98 years and counting without a world series title.and everyone picked these misfits to win it all this season just because that other team from chicago won last season, a team that is way more decent and classier the cubs winning the world series? Yeah OK they can't even hit a beachball with a tennis racket.What we want late bloomers every year ... Not happenign this year..
the top teams are so good, the middle and bottom feeders have no hope of catching up..
I just dont see the Cubs anywhere near the territory of a playoff bracket and Angels-Oakland-Rangers, one of them have to win right?
like the 05 PadresI wish people would forget about 2003 and get off the Cubs bandwagon. Prior and Wood are not the same pitchers they were in 2003. This team will finish no better than .500, even if everybody comes back healthy.Nice real estate. I'll be in touch with your buddy.
Go Nationals!I have a problem with calling the White Sox "classy" as long as you've got that bundle of sunshine names AJ on the team.I was willing to give the author of this article the benefit of the doubt until I saw that he picked the cubs as one of his possible late season contenders. As the joke goes C.U.B.S. (Completely Usless By September)What about the Astros? They've awakened from the dead the past 2 years. The Rocket is back!The Brewers are a year away from the big time, so much young talent and if they get healthy pitching. Wow.No mention of the Astros? after what they've done the last two summers? They looked atrocious in May, but young pitchers will struggle occasionally, and the load will be taken off a bit with the return on Clemens, and hopefully Brandon Backe. They may not catch the Cardinals, but the last two NLCS shows they can beat them in a 7 game series.Mr. Luft - There's a reason why you're a sports writer...because you aren't very intelligent.I'm with Jason of Arlington -- the Pirates' record is one thing, but the Pirates' RPI is better than the Astros', the Cubs' and the Brewers'. They should be 26-28, and none of those three teams should have more than 25 wins (apart from the Cardinals, the NL Central is horrendous this year). I doubt they'll contend, but at this point they seem to have a better chance of finishing in fifth place than the Cubs do.The Cubs are done and I'm a REAL Cubs fan, people either love 'em or loath 'em. I love them because I've been a fan since I knew what a baseball was and I refuse to jump on the most recent bandwagon - Chicago White Sox (although they are a stong team with a great manager who has heart). The Cubs lack a great manager (Dusty mumbles excuses every postgame interview) and a strong team. Pitching wins games and they don't have it. So, I'll remain a fan of a losing team until we get lucky enough to break our decades of losing like both the Sox teams did these past two years!!!White Sox classy? Haven't you heard of winning ugly... well they are the ugly of the "good, the bad & the ugly"!Thank you for actually saying that Rondell White and Tony Batista are problems. How long is Gardenhire gonna stick with these guys? Do we have to sit through another Bret Boone fiasco, it is just ridiculous when they have guys on the bench like Rodriguez who can play third better than Batista and numerous other outfielders in the minors that are better than White. Cut these two players and the team's offense will instantly be better.Hey I was disappointed to not see the Mariners get their due on your list. Then I re-read the link on cnn.com "Five MLB teams you just can't count out" I thought it was "Five MLB teams you just can't count on"Everyone seems to have forgoten how no one cared about the white sox until mid september of last year. If u turned on there games u saw maybe 10,000 people there but now there sellin the place out (i hate bandwagon fans) i also hate the white sox with all my heart.
And im sick of everyone counting the cubs out.... the astros have made a comeback 2 years in a row and u saw the '03 marlins and '02 angels were in the same boat and they won the title. I expect the cubs to make a trade like the astros did in '04 when they got beltran and he took them deep in the playoffs... it's destitany for the cubs to win it all.of all those teams you mentioned as DONE i just have a funny feeling about the mariners. as of this date, they are not in double digits in games behind the division leader and the offense can light up pertty soon. the problem is the pitching...as for the cubs...they are DONE! no miracle for them this year!Let's go Bucs!
Its no Moreno, Garner, Foli, Madlock, Parker, Stargell, Ott and Lacy/Easler, but the Pirates have been playing some great ball recently. I think it will continue.
Don't count the Pirates out of 4th place in the division.The Indians have to be on this list. They put up runs better than any team in the league, and CC is a bonafide ace. They just took 3 of 4 from the White Sox. Throw in the fact that the Tigers will fade now that they're playing real teams (Yanks, both Sox, and Jays), and the AL Central is going to be a crazy 3 way race.what tells you that the Rangers will "fade"? they are in a good position with their starting pitching. Adam Eaton returning after the all-star is just as good as making a mid-season trade. Not to mention, their offense has not been producing even close to their potential. Both Teixiera and Michael Young are poised to break-out soon. I think the AL west will be an interesting battle until the end.THe Angels need to make some front office changes first of all an get a GM that is going to do something. Next they need to offload Garret Anderson and his lazy attitude. With the depth in their farm system there is no reason BIll Stoneman hasn't offloaded the dead weight on this ship and brought in some guys that want to play some serious ball.The Cubs don't need a shovel? You've got to be kidding me! They haven't even had their annual June Swoon yet, so I know they are dead. As a Cardinal fan, it's sad our biggest rival can't push us in the standings, but then again, have they really ever done it? They are dead. The fat lady has sung!Yes, I bleed Cubbie blue... and it's just a silly honor for our team to even be mentioned here... but let's not allow the romanticism fool anyone.
For the Cubs to even win 81 games, so many aspects must click perfectly : a healthy Prior, an untiring Maddux, a mature Zambrano, a consistent Aramis, a linedrive-hitting Pierre, Lee actually being able to put strength in his swing, and an undistracted Dusty.
You take just one of these out of the equation, and the Cubs little flag on top of the Wrigley scoreboard will be flapping way underneath many others.With everyone thinking the Cubs are done this year, maybe we will come back.
you never know!No mention of the Royals here. What gives?Perhaps The Wilsonian forgot that the Astros made their first trip to the World Seris last year...
This of course means that the Astros did not win the 2004 NLCS in seven games, contrary to his belief.
Also, the Rocket will not save that offensive offense.Wow, lot of fired up Pirates fans on this thread. Well, I'm with you! Having been at the park for a couple of the recent series, I can tell you this young team isn't ready to call their season over. There are a lot of winnable series during June (Cards and Tigers probable exceptions)...don't be surprised at a 38-43 record by the end of the month.Of the five teams it's hard to count out, four are in the NL West.
Did you write this article before or after the Brewers got swept by the Pirates?White Sox...classy? You must be one of the many white sox bandwagon phonies. Funny how the white sox couldn't sell out a game unless they were playing the Cubs and now all of a sudden this year everyone claims they are big white sox fans. I'm sorry but when you have someone on your team that everyone in the league would like to punch, you're not classy. Ozzie...not classy, funny how just because he yells at people it makes him a genious.Unload Garret Anderson (dead weight?) the angeles did no load the dead weight last year and his name was Finley.
And I'm tried of hearing about the Black Sox guys everybodys wanting to talk about a team that had to cheat to get in to the World Series.The Angels are just one bold trade away from making the World Series this year. That move? Trade McPherson and Jeff Weaver for Barry Bonds. Everybody wins. Bonds continues his pursuit of the HR record as a DH. The Angels own the strongest 1-2 punch in baseball and the Giants can begin to focus on the future with a solid block to build upon in McPherson, Kotchman or one of the Angels other stud prospects. Anyone who disagrees with me, including the Giants or Angels front office, is an intellectual dwarf unworthy of my expert analysis.I agree with Oakland and the Angels on not eliminating them since they play in the AL West. However, the Cubs are a mess. They are horrible without Lee offensively, the pitching of Maddux and Zambrano have been inconsistent. Not even Derrek Lee's bat will get them back over the top. Plus, with St. Louis running away, Cincinnati being as good as advertised, and Houston getting Clemens back, it will be hard for Chicago to get back in this race. The same goes for Milwaukee especially if they have problems beating lower teams like Pittsburgh. Minnesota you can just forget. When you have only two or three guys hitting the ball and two of your better pitchers are getting shelled, it is hard to contend, and with Detroit and Chicago out to a huge start and Cleveland slowly getting it going, it will be impossible for the Twins to give those three trouble. Maybe they can play the Royals the next 100 games and then there might be a chance.Can't count out the blue jays, would be nice if they made the playoffs finally.The Cubs?? Hahaha.. What a joke. Thanks for the laugh... Go Cards!!Cubs? Are you serious? Put a fork in them, they're done!The Twins' just announced signing of Juan Gonzalez to play right field will get them into the playoffs. Mark my words! If they can sign Rafael Palmeiro, Vinny Castilla and Jose Canseco to score more runs for Johan Santana they'll win the whole thing!The Brewers will win the NL central.Did someone really just say that 4/5 teams listed are in the NL West?? Last I checked, none were in the NL West. There were two in the NL Central though.Oakland has a track record of getting better as the season progresses -- Beane himself has even said he uses the first few months to figure out what he has and what he doesn't, then tries to go get what he doesn't have if they at all have a chance. The Angels have injury problems, who knows what will happen with them, but they've got a lot of prospects that could help. The Brewers have a solid offense, they at least have a chance to surprise once Sheets is back (assuming he's in form).
The Twins, however, have three teams that are clearly superior in front of them in their own division -- the Sox have a vastly superior lineup, deeper starting pitching (though no one like Santana), and better team defense, the Indians are one of the best in the game on offense, and at least are in the ballpark of the Twins on pitching (good bullpen in particular), and the Tigers are pretty balanced. Forget the Twins.
And the Cubs? Even all my hardcore Cub fan friends think they're done. Marginal offense even when Lee is there, and extremely iffy starting pitching does not a contender make. That bullpen is useless if they have no lead to protect. It makes for a team that will be fighting the Pirates (and I still think the Reds by the end of the season, that pitching staff is awful) for the dishonor of being the only 6th place team in the majors.I hope the Brewers will make the Play Offs. Unfortunately they are in a strong NL Central with the Cards and the surprisingly good Reds.
The Brewers have continuously improved and built up a promissing team.
A Wild Card spot is realistic and they would certainly deserve it.
Yes, they have slightly underachieved so far but I still think they have a good offense as well as Pitching Rotation.I am a life long Cubbie fan so saying this hurts. Maybe next year..., but this year they are done. In my 30 years of watching the Cubs, this is by far the worst team they have ever fielded.Shouldn't the Indians be on this list over the Twins? Detroit will tail off int he second half as their pitching comes back down to earth. The Indians, notorious slow starters the last couple years, will inevitably be back in the Central race before long. The Twins? No way they leapfrog the big 3 in that division.If the Angels make a trade for a big bat this season, they will be in the world series. Perhaps Miguel Tejada or Barry Bonds.
GO ANGELSThe Cubs weren't that good to begin with - GM Jim Hendry put together an 82-85 win team assuming Prior/Wood were healthy. The free fall makes 75 wins a best case scenario.
The only real question for Cubs fans this year is whether they'll be stupid enough to give a multiyear contract extension to Dusty Baker.the only thing worse than the cubs are their fans. God do they suck.As a die hard Giants fan, how the HELL can you list the BREWERS as a playoff contender???
When have they contended for ANYTHING except last place???
Once the Brewers, or any other team wins like the Giants have....they have NO REASON to be on this listThe Twins: Good pitching and good hitting haven't lined up yet this season. But if you look at the fact that their first 8 or 9 wins this year were from behind, you can realize that they have heart and need the baseball "gods" to line up there luck a little better. Like Rondel White, every ball he hits hard, is at someone, and don't tell me he doesn't hit the ball hard! Also, can I hear some national props for Joe Mauer?It pains me to say this as a Cub fan, but give up, man, the season's lost. Looking at the Cardinals and the wild-card race, the Cubs most likely have to play .700 ball from now until the end of the season just to make the playoffs. That's NOT going to happen. Stop giving us false hope, all right? Deceiving us into four additional months of anguish isn't doing us any favors. Lee and Prior isn't going to change that. Lee has another month before he can swing the bat - even when he loses the cast, he still has to deal with muscle atrophy, then he has to regain his swing, his timing, etc. Mark Prior had trouble hitting 90 mph in his last start. It's going to be awhile before he gets his arm strength up, and even then, it may be awhile before he regains his control. End the madness, it's OVER. DONE.Although the Astros didn't win the 2004 NLCS, they showed that they could compete with the Cardinals and then they won the NLCS the next year. That's what The Wilsonian meant.when judging a team's chances of coming back to life, u have to look at the teams atop of their division and their likelyhood of remaining there. the cubs and brewers may get towards the .500 mark, but neither of one of them will come close to overtaking st. louis and houston. the teams with the best light at the end of the tunnel are oakland and anaheim. texas' roster is not as good as it was this time last yr b4 their free fall and oakland looks like they are about to surge. they're actually in the best position this yr theyve been in a while as any sort of two week .750 win mark will give them a comfortable lead in a division 85 games will win. the twins on paper are pretty darn good, i still like them to regroup and win the wildcard - cleveland is shaky and detroit's pitching staff and lackluster bullpen won't hold up.I can't believe the Twins signed Juan Gonzalez. He's washed up and should be Juan Gone from the league. Clearly the Twins have lost their minds. Even Kirby Puckett's ghost would be more productive in the Twins lineup.Bionicgenius is right on. He's rather cocky, but when you're right you're right. As a Giants fan, I think now's the perfect time to move Bonds and begin rebuilding. Let's face it, the Giants aren't going anywhere this year or next and Bonds's value is only going to diminish. The Giants might as well go after the "CREAM" of the Angels prospect crop, before it's "CLEAR" to everyone that Bonds' will never return to previous form. Too bad Bionicgenius isn't the Giant's GM!Stick a fork in the Cubs because they are done, they may have Prior to try to bring them back up to the second place spot, but really, do you think they are able to overtake the National League Central division with the Cardinals taking over for the 4th year in a row? No way, they may have a chance at a wild card birth but that's still a long shot. Dusty Baker needs to get his team's head in the right place. When you can score 12 runs in a game, and not win, that's saying something and unfortunatley thats a bad something.I totally agree with the Twins. I don't know why Liriano wasn't in the rotation at the beginning after last fall. I think their offense will eventually come around as well as their pitching. I don't know that I would be willing to sit White, as bad as he has been, but I would defenitely sit Batista. I really have no idea why the Twinkies got him. He is an automatic out, and he lacks serious range at third. Makes no sense at all.The Cubs have even less class than they have baseball talent. Maybe Barrett can sucker punch a few more people, Zambrano can throw a tantrum and plunk some more guys, and Baker can whine like a little Cub fan.This is indubitably the worst blog I've ever seen! No one reads anyone elses comments. Everyone just keeps repeating what everyone else just posted. If you don't have anything original to contribute to the CONVERSATION then just keep your fingers still and keep your repetitious thoughts to yourself. May your fingers be seized by arthritis otherwise.Go Bucs! The Pirates have some of the best young talent in the majors in Bay, Castillo, Sanchez, Wilson, Paulino, Duke, Maholm, Perez, and the rest of the guys. I think it took them a while to get grounded, but they are far better than their current record, and should do well this month, and into the second half of the season. Go Bucs!!Dear Lord! You think that the offense, or only a couple players in particular, are the Twins problems?!? There are just too many problem areas to believe that they'll get to .500, let alone the playoffs. The worst thing about this team, however, is what they're known for. The pitching this year is horrible! Santana, Liriano and Nathan are really the only bright spots on the entire staff. Sure, Rincon is still getting things done. But Radke's done, Silva will never get his slider back and Baker is just tanking. Add that Crain is a defensive run generator, and you get a formula for disappointment. Yeah, Batista and White were horrible ideas with their bats, but that's not the whole problem with offense. I love my Twinkies, but I have a feeling even .500 is wishful thinking this season...Why did you leave out the mariners? they obviously have no offense, pitching or defense so you definently should have included them on your list.Why didn't you include the Orioles? Do you think they really have a chance to compete in the A.L East with them damn Yanks?Life long Cubs fan here. If you think they still have a chance I want some of whatever you are smoking. This team has consistantly broken our hearts. sometimes in september usualy in May. I doubt we will catch St. louis and Houston. just too many teams in the NL centralThe Cubs don't need to win. Just recently they had their biggest crowd ever. The old lovable losers aren't going to spend any money as long as the stadium fills up. Come on down to the Southside for real winner.hey cubs fans stop your belly aching go see the white sox. buy your seats and over priced beer. The cubs are going to lose.Who said the mariners were out!!!! They had a 6 gaem losing streak I must admit but jsut a few weeks ago they were 2 games out of 1st place. They have the best pitching ing in the division and the offense is doing suitable. Don't count them out just yet.i think the twins have some great talent but they are coached poorley. if they get a new coach i think they can be a great team"hey cubs fans stop your belly aching go see the white sox. buy your seats and over priced beer. The cubs are going to lose." Typical sox fan. Real baseball fans stick with their team win or lose. Of all the people going to white sox games now about 5% of them cared at all before last year.What a piece of work Cubs fans are. Its not even fun to rip their lousy team because the fans are doing a better job of it than we could. I think they would actually lose interest if their team DID win.If the Angels are a team not to count out, why were the Mariners ahead of them in the standings a few weeks ago?haha. as bad as my Cubbies are, they have owned the cards for the last two years. have fun managing your injuries.6-2 versus the Cards this year
16-8 versus the Cards the past 2 seasons
4 wins in their last 5 games
Puljols on the DL
Prior, Miller & Lee coming back in the next 3 weeks
The Cubs have a chance, lets see how good the Cards are without a couple of bats (Puljols/Edmonds) and a stud pitcher (Carpenter). Not saying the Cubs will win the NL Central, but they have a chance in the Wild Card.
It's a marathon, not the 100-yard dash!
Also sick of Cubs fans also upset about the team, quit booing, show some support and enjoy Wrigley Field (the best park in the bigs!)The Seattle Mariners are gonna shock the world.cubs suck plain and simple. horrid offense, even with lee in it, teams will just pitch around him. nevin is not an everyday player. wood and prior you cant rely on. twins also have a horrid offense, and besides mauer dont have anyone who scares you. the back of the rotation is extremly weak as well, even if they do have two studs at the top. the angels offense is just as bad, all those rookies doing nothing to help this team, and they still are missing bartolo.Poor Cubbies. Nobody likes them. I'm not changing the trend and anything. But with Pujols out, the Central Division might be up for grabs. Who knows...Recent Posts
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