Chatter Up

Say "No" to Instant Replay

2007-05-11T11:56:00.001-04:00

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

I applauded when Major League Baseball expanded its postseason field from four to eight and added the wild cards. Interleague play? Even though it takes away from the All-Star Game and the World Series and creates unfair advantages in scheduling, as a whole the idea has grown on me over the years. It is what it is, as they say.

MLB in recent years even had a team switch leagues, bringing the Milwaukee Brewers to the NL from the AL, where they had played since their inception as the Seattle Pilots in 1969. As a longtime NL fan, that was probably the toughest one to swallow, but at least the Brewers look like they are shedding their perennial mantle of mediocrity.

There is perhaps another fundamental change to the game in store for us, one that may challenge even the most progressive of longtime baseball fans to balk at its inception: instant replay.

The mere mention of the words "instant replay" makes me shudder, and I wouldn't bring it up if not for the fact that earlier this week Rockies manager Clint Hurdle, upset over a couple of calls that took home runs away from his ballclub, stumped for the adoption of a replay system. He went so far as to talk with league officials about his support for replay, a move that says a lot more about why he has failed to post a winning record during his five-plus years as Colorado manager than it does about the state of the game.

Though it's been discussed in offseason meetings by MLB brass, no implementation of instant replay appears imminent. But you know it's coming. If not sooner than later, perhaps after the retirement of commissioner Bud Selig, who is on record as being anti-replay, or maybe on the heels of a critical blown call in a postseason game. It's only a matter of time. At first it may just be for home runs, and then it will extend to basestealing plays and so on. Just imagine how silly managers will look when they have to throw those little red flags onto the field to signal they want to challenge a ruling.

To answer your question, no I did not ride a horse and buggy to work today. (They haven't allowed those in the Lincoln Tunnel since the last FDR administration.) So then why am I so opposed to instant replay? Because baseball doesn't need it. Do umpires make mistakes? Yes, on occasion, they do. But as SI's Tom Verducci pointed out after his stint as an umpire this spring, umpires at the major-league level do an incredibly fine job. Calls are rarely missed, and even then you only know they were missed because you saw a super-slow motion replay of the play in question. Controversy and human error don't detract from the game; they add to the drama unfolding before our eyes. Besides, what is more human than making mistakes?

Moreover, replay systems often drain the emotion out of the most pivotal moments of a sporting event. In hoops, a buzzer-beater isn't a buzzer-beater until it's been reviewed by replay, and a 3-pointer isn't a 3-pointer until the referee double-checks the monitor to make sure the shooter's toe wasn't touching the line. In the NFL, your team may have just scored the game-winning touchdown ... or maybe it didn't. Find out after four more minutes of commercials.

But as far as baseball is concerned, it's not about replay adding to the length of games. As Rockies blogger Mark T.R. Donohue pointed out in Bad Altitude recently, it takes just as much time -- or longer -- for the manager to get done having his hissy fit over the controversial call than it does for the umpire to take a peek at the replay. But managers throwing a tantrum happens to be something I like to see. Lou Piniella having something to gripe about makes the game more colorful and fun, and that's more than can be said for having to watch an umpire stare into a replay screen.

A team that's full of surprises

2007-05-04T12:11:00.000-04:00

Hanley Ramirez is proving his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2006 was no fluke.

Richard C. Lewis/WireImage.com

The Marlins shocked the baseball world last season by winning 78 games with a cast of rookies and no-names and a payroll south of Alex Rodriguez's annual salary. They are playing well again this season, with a record of 13-14, which isn't all that surprising. But the way Florida is winning is once again turning heads around the league.

The Marlins are mashing. They lead the National League in runs scored per game at 5.59. In the DH-assisted American League, only the juggernaut Yankees (5.77) and Indians (5.60) have been more productive.

This early in the season, it's tempting to write off the Fish's offensive prowess as a small sample-size fluke. But a closer look at some key stats reveal otherwise.

The 2007 Marlins are essentially the same cast that ranked eighth in runs scored in the NL last season, but the way they are being used is quite different. First-year manager Fredi Gonzalez isn't nearly as devoted to smallball as his predecessor, Joe Girardi. Gonzalez has toned down a running game that resulted in 58 caught stealings last season, the second-highest total in the league, compared to 110 successful attempts. This year the Fish have only been caught four times (out of 16 attempts). How damaging are caught stealings? They are near-disastrous. A successful stolen base adds .24 runs; a caught stealing costs .68 runs. All that running they did last year actually cost the team about 13 runs. This year they are breaking even.

Also, Gonzalez doesn't kill promising rallies by having his key hitters sacrifice bunt the way Girardi often did. The Marlins had 40 sacrifice hits by non-pitchers last season; 12 of those came from NL Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez and All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla. This year the club only has only five such sacrifices, and three of those came from bench players. Sac bunting with your best hitters is a sure way to prevent your team from putting up a crooked number. (There's a sobering thought for Yankees fans who may have to cope with YES broadcaster Girardi as the club's next manager.)

The Hardball Times keeps a nifty stat called Gross Production Average (GPA for short), which is a variation of OPS except that it is park-adjusted and scaled down to resemble a regular batting average, with .200 being lousy, .265 about average and .300 outstanding. The Marlins' GPA is .273, just a shade behind the Phillies and Braves (.274 each) and the Mets (.276). Why is this important? Because it shows the Marlins' impressive run total isn't out of whack with the performances of its individual hitters.

The Marlins are batting .282 with runners in scoring position, which is high but not abnormally so; the Cubs (.285) and the Padres (.283) rank higher in the NL. Plus, the Fish are batting only .235 with runners in scoring position and two outs, which is usually another flukey stat that tends to inflate a team's run total.

Because it's a young lineup with players who are still on the upswing of their careers, it's difficult to say that any of these hitters are playing significantly over their heads. Perhaps first baseman Mike Jacobs, who is batting .307, will cool down, but it wouldn't be all that surprising if Miguel Cabrera finished the season at his current OPS of 1.075 or if Ramirez batted close to .327 all season. Even if there is some regression, part of that may be offset by increased production from Uggla (he's currently hitting .223) and catcher Miguel Olivo (.219).

The bench is strong. With outfielders Alejandro De Aza and Jeremy Hermida injured, reserves Alfredo Amezaga (.423 SLG) and Joe Borchard (.327 OBP) have proven to be solid replacements. And Cody Ross and Aaron Boone have combined to drive in 19 runs.

Is this an offense that can lead the NL in runs all season? Possibly, depending on when slow-starting Mets sluggers David Wright and Carlos Delgado break out of their slumps (Wright hit a three-run blast on Thursday night) or if Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson is going to be Joe Morgan all season. It's not a stretch to state the Marlins have an upper-tier offense, one that could finish in the top four in the league and one that should be feared.

Ranking the Closers

2007-05-02T12:22:00.000-04:00

Francisco Rodriguez is working on a third consecutive 40-plus save season.

Chuck Rydlewski/WireImage.com

Closers are like shooting stars. With rare exceptions, they shine brightly for a short while before burning out. Every few years, the top tier of closers resets with a new cast. Must be something about coming out of the bullpen every day and throwing as hard as you can for 20 pitches that isn't conducive to long-term success, though it does keep orthopedic surgeons gainfully employed.

Just five years ago, the top 10 saves leaders consisted of John Smoltz, Eric Gagne, Mike Williams, Eddie Guardado, Jose Mesa, Billy Koch, Robb Nen, Jose Jimenez, Troy Percival and Ugueth Urbina. Among that group, Gagne and Guardado are the only ones currently employed as a closer, and they are both injured. (Though for all I know Urbina may be leading the Venezuela Penal League in saves.)

Fast forward to April 2007, a month during which established closers performed so badly as a whole that it makes me wonder if we are in the midst of another major shift in the closer ranks. Here is how I would break down the current crop of closers into tiers with some comments tacked on below:

Light up a stogie

Joe Nathan, Twins
Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
Billy Wagner, Mets

Comments: As I write this, Papelbon gets taken deep by A's rookie Travis Buck for his first blown save of the season in nine opportunities. No matter. Papelbon still belongs among the elite. ... K-Rod's small frame and wicked mechanics always have critics ready to pounce, but he hasn't broken down yet. And it doesn't hurt to have two of the best setup men in the game (Scot Shields, Justin Speier) softening up the lineup for you, either. ... Wagner and Nathan just keep chugging along, year after year.

On the way up

Chad Cordero, Nationals
Francisco Cordero, Brewers
Brian Fuentes, Rockies
Bobby Jenks, White Sox
J.J. Putz, Mariners
Chris Ray, Orioles
Takashi Saito, Dodgers
Huston Street, A's

Comments: The Nationals trailed in nearly every ballgame they played in April, so opportunities were few and far between for Chad Cordero, who is still only 25 and should have a few more good years ahead of him. ... Francisco Cordero has been rock solid since being traded to the Brewers, and his 0.00 ERA in 12 games is a huge reason for their hot start this season. ... Fuentes is working on his third straight 30-save season. He deserves hazardous duty pay for getting the job done at Coors Field, where he saved 15 games last season. ... For sheer dominance, Putz is probably the best of this group. ... At 25, Ray also has a bright future in store. ... All Saito has done since coming over from Japan last season is blow hitters away. The 37-year-old Dodgers closer has struck out 122 batters in 92 innings while issuing only 24 walks. ... You'll know when Street will start to slip -- when Billy Beane pawns him off on an unsuspecting fellow GM.

On the way down

Armando Benitez, Giants
Joe Borowski, Indians
Ryan Dempster, Cubs
Tom Gordon, Phillies
Trevor Hoffman, Padres
Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
Todd Jones, Tigers
Brad Lidge, Astros
Mariano Rivera, Yankees
B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
Bob Wickman, Braves

Comments: It's safe to say that for all these guys, their best days are behind them. Hoffman and Rivera have such magnificent track records that a sudden turnaround to their slow starts wouldn't shock anybody. But they have to start declining sometime, don't they? For Rivera in particular, it's not a good sign that his manager feels like he has to treat him like a China doll. His days of getting more than three outs in an outing are over. ... Ryan is on the shelf with an ominous elbow injury. He's always had herky-jerky mechanics but somehow they never slowed him down -- until now. ... Jones overpowered hitters while with the Marlins in 2005, striking out 62 batters in 73 innings, but he's only whiffed 30 batters since signing with Detroit before '06. Jones is further proof that closing is more about moxie than stuff. Sooner or later, though, his inability to miss bats will catch up to him (see Kolb, Dan). ... Dempster is coming off a poor season (nine blown saves in '06) and I expect more of the same once the opportunities become more frequent.

Wait and see

Henry Owens, Marlins
Al Reyes, Devil Rays
Joakim Soria, Royals
Salomon Torres, Pirates
Jose Valverde, Diamondbacks
David Weathers, Reds
Dan Wheeler, Astros

Comments: Some of you fantasy leaguers have probably picked up Reyes without ever watching him pitch, though the truth is that the guy is such a journeyman (seven teams over 12 years) that you probably have seen him at some point. He's 36 and spent 2006 recovering from Tommy John surgery, so enjoy the ride while it lasts. ... Valverde is off to a nice start but it's tough to be a successful closer over the long-term if you have control problems. ... Soria is a rookie filling in for the injured Octavio Dotel and has shown flashes of dominance (e.g. four Ks in two innings against Detroit on April 18). ... Owens just notched consecutive saves against the Mets, so the Marlins' closer job is his for the foreseeable future. He's got a nice fastball that rides in the low-to-mid 90s and tails away from left-handed hitters. If he remains aggressive in the strike zone he might prove to be serviceable. ... Wheeler's peripherals have been outstanding in setup duty. Now let's see if he can do it in the pressure spot.

Five April Lessons

2007-05-01T12:45:00.001-04:00

Adrian Gonzalez leads a deceptively potent Padres offense.

Phil Ellsworth/WireImage.com

The first month of the 2007 season is in the books, and all I can say is, "thank goodness." It was an ugly month all the way around, and I'm not just talking about John Kruk's perm. From the foul weather (will anybody ever want to travel to Cleveland in April again?), to protracted batting slumps (paging Richie Sexson) to the endless string of closer meltdowns (et tu, Trevor Hoffman?), it's safe to say May 1 couldn't have come soon enough. The month was not without its lessons, though. Here are five things I learned in April ...

The Padres can hit

It's tough to evaluate teams that play in extreme pitchers' or hitters' parks, and the Padres definitely fall into the former category -- PETCO Park is a barn. Not only that, but the rest of the NL West, with the exception of Arizona, isn't overly friendly for hitters, either, especially since Coors Field is now playing under Humidor Ground Rules. Last season, only three NL teams scored fewer runs than the Padres. That's terrible, right? Not really, at least not when you consider that the Padres averaged 5.14 runs per game on the road, the fourth-best in the NL. This year they are once again fourth in the league in road runs (5.00 per game) and rank eighth in overall runs scored. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez (25 RBIs) is an emerging star, and second baseman Marcus Giles (.376 OBP) may have been the best pickup of the offseason. Plus, Brian Giles can still draw a walk and catcher Josh Bard just came back off the DL.

The Nationals are bad, but they aren't that bad

The 2003 Tigers notwithstanding, it's just as hard to lose more than one out of three games than it is to win more than one out of three. The Nationals, tabbed by many heading into this season as the next historically bad team (think '62 Mets), have played right around that .333 level (9-17, .346) despite getting very little from their top two pitchers (John Patterson, Chad Cordero), their best hitter (Ryan Zimmerman) and the continuing absence of injured first baseman Nick Johnson. What they do have going for them is the budding Ryan Church (140 OPS+), the solid Austin Kearns (118 OPS+) and the rebounding Dmitri Young (115 OPS+). Pitching wise, Shawn Hill and Jay Bergmann (who?) have been decent, and the relief duo of Micah Bowie (3.00 ERA) and Jesus Colome (2.45 ERA) have provided yeoman's work.

Playing center field isn't easy

Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki, Milwaukee's Bill Hall, Houston's Chris Burke and the Cubs' Alfonso Soriano moved to center field to start the season. Among the four, Burke and Soriano already have washed out as their teams decided to go with highly touted prospects -- Soriano moved back to left as Felix Pie took over center and Burke was benched in favor of Hunter Pence. Hall has struggled in the field and at the plate, batting only .239, raising the question of whether it's worth living with his glove in center if he isn't providing the same type of production at the plate as he did last season, when he hit 35 home runs. Ichiro is the only one who has appeared to make a seamless transition.

Tampa Bay has more than one good starter

If you haven't picked up James Shields yet in your fantasy league, then it's probably too late. The 6-foot-4 right-hander has been the Devil Rays' best starting pitcher this season, even more effective than the cannon-armed Scott Kazmir. Featuring a nasty change-up that already has the league buzzing, Shields has struck out 37 batters in 36 innings while issuing only seven walks. He's 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA compared to Kazmir's 2-1 record and 4.06 ERA.

Barry Bonds still can carry an offense

Can a team win a division with a 35-year-old Rich Aurilia batting third all season? It can if Barry Bonds is batting fourth and Matt Cain pitches every fifth day. It's the rotation that has carried the Giants to a 13-11 record so far -- San Francisco ranks third in the NL in fewest runs allowed per game but 13th in runs scored per game. Whatever offense it does get comes from Bonds. According to The Hardball Times, the controversial slugger leads the club with 25 Runs Created. The difference between Bonds and the runners-up, Ray Durham and Aurilia (12 Runs Created each), is the largest gap between the leader and runner-up on any team in the majors. (Alex Rodriguez has a 12 RC lead on teammate Jason Giambi, representing the second-largest gap.)

Look at me, I can be ... center field

2007-03-13T11:34:00.000-04:00

Bill Hall starred at shortstop last season, but he and a couple of other big names around the majors are moving to center.

Bob Levey/WireImage.com

I stopped by Brewers camp on my way through the Cactus League last week and couldn't help but be impressed with emerging star Bill Hall. For those of you who aren't familiar with Hall, it's because he came out of nowhere in 2006 -- he didn't have a spot in the everyday lineup when the season started -- to lead all shortstops with 35 home runs and set the stage for what may be a 40-home run season in '07. It might also be because he plays for the Brewers, who haven't given anybody much reason to watch since the original Bush Administration.

As impressive as Hall is at the plate -- he hit a home run to left-center field against the Giants on Thursday that cleared a bridge 50 feet past the scoreboard -- his presence in the clubhouse is just as pronounced. On a team relying on kids such as Prince Fielder (22), Rickie Weeks (24), J.J. Hardy (24) and Corey Hart (25), the 27-year-old Hall stands out as a an elder statesman with the established clout -- he signed a four-year, $24 million contract this winter -- to become the face of this franchise for the rest of the decade.

If he does so, it appears it will be while he's playing center field, his new position after being a sort of super-utility man the past couple of seasons, bouncing around between second base, third base, shortstop and a handful of starts in center. I watched and waited for a ball to be hit toward Hall to see what kind of jump he would get and to try to gauge where he was at in his transition to center. Alas, only one ball was hit his way during the game, a booming drive into the left-center field gap that turned him around and bounced over the fence for a ground-rule double.

After the game, Hall said he might have had a shot at the ball if he hadn't been playing so shallow, which he was doing as an experiment to see what he could and couldn't get away with in center.

"If I'm playing deeper, I might have a chance to catch it, but I might run into the wall, too, so it was going to be a tough play regardless," Hall said.

With his exceptional speed, he's not nearly as concerned with covering the gaps as he is with handling the line drives hit right toward him.

"The bigger guys tend to carry it over your head," he said. "You see a line drive you want to charge in on, but some guys hit them over your head."

Though I have little doubt that Hall will develop into a decent center fielder -- his manager, Ned Yost, said Hall is "already looking like a natural out there" -- I can't help but wonder if the Brewers are making the right decision in moving their bellweather slugger out of the infield.

After taking over at shortstop early in the season for an injured J.J. Hardy, Hall proved he could play the position at an above-average level; according to David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range, only Houston's Adam Everett displayed more range at short last season. With Hall at short, the Brewers enjoyed the best production of any regular shortstop in the National League.

2006 NL Shortstops ranked by Park-Adjusted OPS+ (100 is average; min. 502 PA)
Name, Team, OPS+
1. Hall, Brewers, 126
2. Jose Reyes, Mets, 118
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins, 116
T4. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers, 107
T4. Edgar Renteria, Braves, 107
6. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies, 103
Source: Baseball-Reference.com

As a center fielder, Hall's OPS+ would have ranked third behind Carlos Beltran (153) and Andruw Jones (129).

Understandably, the Brewers have made a commitment to play the homegrown Hardy at shortstop, and a healthy Corey Koskie at third base would make Hall's move to center a no-brainer. But Koskie is suffering from post-concussion syndrome and is out indefinitely, which means the Brewers will go with a punchless platoon of Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino at third base until prospect Ryan Braun improves his glovework.

Subsequently, the only real advantage you get by moving Hall to center field, besides his shortstop-quality arm, is to hide the bat of Brady Clark, who slumped badly last season (77 OPS+) after strong showings in 2004 and '05. Basically, it's a wash until Koskie comes back or Braun learns how to field, and that's assuming Hall makes the transition smoothly to center field.

What about Ichiro, Soriano and Burke?

Ichiro brings his dynamic range and plus-arm to center field.

Mike Ehrmann/WireImage.com

You would think it was an election year with so many shifts toward center going on. In addition to Hall, we also have Ichiro, Alfonso Soriano and Chris Burke of the Astros learning the position.

All four players are athletic enough to eventually settle in, though Ichiro sticks out as the most natural of the transitions. The Seattle superstar took over the position the last month of 2006 and looked terrific. This is unusual in that, historically speaking, players rarely move from an easier position to a more difficult position (as per Bill James' defensive spectrum). Then again, Ichiro is nothing if not an unusually amazing ballplayer.

Perhaps the best aspect of the shakeup for Seattle is that Jeremy Reed (.368 career slugging pct.) can move to a reserve role and veteran bat Jose Guillen was picked up as the corner outfielder du jour.

To illustrate how much better off the M's are with Ichiro in center field, look at these AL rankings of corner outfielders compared to center fielders from 2006:

2006 AL corner outfielders ranked by park-adjusted OPS+ (100 is average; min. 502 PA)
Player, OPS+
1. Manny Ramirez, 168
2. Jermaine Dye, 152
3. Vladimir Guerrero, 144
4. Raul Ibanez, 128
5. Nick Swisher, 126
6. Mike Cuddyer, 124
7. Reed Johnson, 121
8. Magglio Ordonez, 113
9. Carl Crawford, 111
10. Ichiro, 109

Expanded list from baseball-reference.com.

Now here's that same list with just the center fielders in the AL.

2006 AL center fielders ranked by OPS+ (100 is average; min. 502 PA)
Player, OPS+
1. Grady Sizemore, 135
2. Vernon Wells, 126
3. Johnny Damon, 120
4. Gary Matthews Jr., 119
5. Torii Hunter, 112
6. David Dejesus, 103
7. Curtis Granderson, 99
8. Mark Kotsay, 89
9. Chone Figgins, 89

Expanded list from baseball-reference.com.

So if Ichiro had played center last year, he would have ranked sixth among AL center fielders in OPS+ instead of ninth among corner outfielders, and he would have trailed the leader, Sizemore, by a substantially smaller margin than he did Manny. It's also worth noting that Ichiro's lifetime OPS+ is 119 and Sizemore's is 126.

I'm more skeptical about the Soriano scenario in Chicago. The Cubs have a rapidly developing future star in Felix Pie, who is being blocked by Soriano and his massive new contract. Early reports on Soriano's acclimation to the position are less than glowing. The best possible solution might be for the team to trade away Jacque Jones and play Pie in center with Soriano at one of the corners. Knowing the Cubs, they will use this whole situation to find a way to limit the at-bats of Matt Murton, one of the few guys on the roster who doesn't mind drawing a walk every now and then.

As for Burke, his situation reminds me of Hall's in that he's a middle infielder moving to center primarily because of his ability to hit. Burke posted a 94 OPS+ last season, which isn't great but should improve as he enters his prime years (he's 27) and represents a vast upgrade over former Astros center fielder Willy Taveras (career 75 OPS+). The fact remains though that Burke would be most valuable at second base but is blocked by Craig Biggio's limp toward 3,000 hits.

Sheffield vs. the Hall of Fame

2007-03-05T22:21:00.000-05:00

Ivan Rodriguez is probably headed to the Hall of Fame, but the steroid taint makes Gary Sheffield's (right) chances a lot iffier.

Weird. That's the best adjective to describe Gary Sheffield's career. What else can you say about a guy who has worn out his welcome at every stop despite consistently hitting the seams off the ball?

Detroit will be the seventh stop during his major-league odyssey. The first time he steps on the field this season for the Tigers, Sheffield will share an obscure, if not dubious, honor with Jose Canseco as the only players with at least 450 home runs who have played for at least seven teams. (Dave Kingman barely misses out at 442 home runs.)

Sheffield usually reserves his best stuff for when he's clamoring for a new contract. But this spring, flush with a two-year, $28 million extension through 2009, he's already in rare form. Last week, he went off on the MLB steroid investigation headed by former Sen. George Mitchell, calling it a "witch hunt." On Monday, while giving his take on Alex Rodriguez's latest soul-baring comments, Sheffield let it be known he has a beef with the Hall of Fame. When asked how important it is to him to be inducted into the Hall one day, he said, "not important at all."

And why is that?

"The best wasn't allowed to play this game for a lot of years," he told reporters. "So all the best players ain't in the Hall of Fame. That's what I'm saying. Not all of them. If it wasn't for that, a lot of them wouldn't be in. I don't concern myself with it, really at all. I don't think about it. It's nothing that I shoot for. It's nothing that I care about. It's as simple as that."

Forget for a moment that he said he doesn't care about achieving the highest honor the game has to offer. He might really mean that, but he probably doesn't. Think about his reasoning, though. To say the Hall is pointless because MLB wasn't integrated until well into the 20th century doesn't make any sense. The practice of segregation in the major leagues is shameful, but no less so than in any other part of American society during the same span. Baseball, for better or worse, has often reflected the values of our nation as a whole.

His comments make even less sense when you consider that many of the greatest players of the Negro Leagues are in fact in the Hall of Fame. Over the years, 35 players and special contributors to the Negro Leagues and pre-Negro League black baseball have been inducted, including 17 by a special committee last year that was organized specifically to make sure nobody deserving was being left out. There may be some slights nonetheless. Buck O'Neil comes to mind. But the same can be said of several white players as well, including Gil Hodges, Ron Santo and Bert Blyleven.

What are we really talking about here then, Sheff? Could it be that, just off the heels of a BBWAA vote that saw Mark McGwire get a paltry 128 votes (23.5 percent), Sheffield sees that his own chances aren't as rock solid as he had hoped? Baseball writers sent a clear message with the McGwire vote, and it's a message that Sheffield -- who, like Mac, has never tested positive but was touched by scandal at least tangentially when he was called to testify in the BALCO trial -- has to find hard to digest. (Also, it's worth noting that Sheffield told SI in 2004 that he took steroids unknowingly.)

Going strictly by the numbers and performance, Sheffield has Hall of Fame credentials. I know many of you will disagree with me on this, especially the "Small Hall" advocates out there, but consider that by the time he retires, he'll have 500 home runs (he's at 455 now) and more than 1,600 runs and RBIs. Only 10 players in history can make the same claim: Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, Rafael Palmeiro, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Mel Ott and Eddie Murray. Eight of those players are in; Bonds is one federal indictment away from kissing his plaque goodbye and Palmeiro will get fewer votes than Willie McGee

Sheffield's rate stats heading into this season are simply sparkling: .297 batting average, .398 on-base percentage, .525 slugging percentage. On the downside, he doesn't own any significant hardware (zero regular- or postseason MVPs) save for one batting title (1992). No home run titles. No RBI titles. But perhaps even more damning is the fact that even if he does get into the Hall, not one of the seven teams he played for will care much for having their logo on his cap.

Rethinking the 2006 Rookie Class -- AL

2007-02-07T12:52:00.000-05:00

Jonathan Papelbon, dominant out of the bullpen in 2006, looks to make the transition back to the starting rotation.

Jim Rogash/WireImage.com

And I thought the National League was tough. In case you missed the first installment of this exercise on Monday, I'm revisiting the talent-laden 2006 rookie classes from each league and trying to come up with the five players who will end up with the best careers, regardless of where they placed in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Now we're doing the American League, and I have to admit I have crashed into the wall Torii Hunter-style. So I'm going to cop out a little bit. Instead of narrowing the field down to five total, I'm going to do two lists: five hitters and five pitchers.

First, here's the final voting for last year's AL ROY, a race that fizzled down the stretch as Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Liriano went down with injuries:

2006 AL Rookie Voting
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers (133 points)
2. Papelbon, Red Sox (63)
3. Liriano, Twins (30)
4. Kenji Johjima, Mariners (10)
5. Jered Weaver, Angels (8)
6. Nick Markakis, Orioles (7)
7. Ian Kinsler, Rangers (1)

As I stated on the NL rookie redux, this is not a scientific endeavour by any means. I'm using some stats and scouting sources, but for the most part I'm basing this on naked-eye observations of their abilities and good, old-fashioned gut instincts. Players who retain their rookie status heading into 2007 (i.e. Matt Garza) were not considered for this list.

AL Hitters 5. Johjima, Catcher, Mariners
He turns 31 in June, so it's likely the .291-.332-.451 batting line he posted last year represents the latter few years of his peak. Still, I'll take the catcher with the decent batting average and power over the average first baseman (Ryan Shealy) and the second baseman with a good eye but little power (Dustin Pedroia).

4. Kinsler, 2B, Rangers
He's in a great ballpark to develop confidence as a young hitter. His production (.286 batting average, 14 home runs) last season looks better when you consider he was hampered by a thumb injury.

3. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
He showed flashes last season but still needs to live up to his minor-league hype. Returning to his natural position of second base should help.

2. Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees
I love the batting eye and mature approach he showed as a 21-year-old. His minor-league history shows that he can develop power, but that won't happen while sitting on the Yankees' bench. He needs at-bats right now more than anything, even if they come at Triple-A.

1. Markakis, OF, Orioles
He proved the Orioles didn't rush him as a 22-year-old last season by batting .291 with a .799 OPS after feasting on minor-league pitching for three years.

AL Pitchers
5. Jeremy Sowers, LHP, Indians He's a control-contact pitcher along the lines of Tom Glavine or John Tudor. The fact that he's a lefty makes it easier to get over the low strikeout rate (3.3/9.0 IP). He'll succeed as long as his defense helps out.

4. Liriano, LHP, Twins
Tommy John success stories aren't hard to find, but the setback is enough to drop him behind Verlander and Papelbon for now. (I'm trying my best to keep visions of Kerry Wood out of my head.)

3. Weaver, RHP, Angels
He's dominated the strike zone at every level he's played. Last season he struck out 105 batters while walking 33 in 123 innings with the Angels.

2. Verlander, RHP, Tigers Despite his triple-digit velocity, he doesn't compile an exceptional number of strikeouts, but is that such a bad thing? Maybe he's polished enough that he doesn't have to blow everybody away. Or maybe he was playing above his peripherals last season, thanks partly to the outstanding defense behind him.

1. Papelbon, RHP, Red Sox
He's a power right-hander at Fenway Park, where you can dominate if you can keep righties from pulling the ball. Papelbon has an uncanny ability to keep hitters in the ballpark. He allowed only three home runs in 68 1/3 innings last season. As a starter in 2004 at Class A Sarasota, he allowed only six home runs in 129 2/3 innings, so he has shown he can remain dominant as a member of the rotation as well as out of the bullpen.

Rethinking the 2006 Rookie Class -- NL

2007-02-05T17:47:00.000-05:00

Stephen Drew was nowhere to be found in last season's Rookie of the Year voting.

Richard C. Lewis/WireImage.com

The rookie class of 2006 was so ridiculously packed with talent that they should have given out two ROY awards for each league. Florida's Hanley Ramirez, the leader of the Marlins' kiddie brigade, ended up with the NL trophy while Detroit's Justin Verlander took home the AL honors.

I don't have a problem with either of those players winning but, as any Todd Hollandsworth fans know, winning the ROY and having the best career from a rookie class are often two separate things. (See 2003, Angel Berroa over Mark Teixeira.) Let's take a look back at the final voting tally in the National League.

2006 NL Rookie Voting
1. Ramirez, Marlins (105 points)
2. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals (101)
3. Dan Uggla, Marlins (55)
4. Josh Johnson, Marlins (11)
5. Matt Cain, Giants (4)
5. Andre Ethier, Dodgers (4)
7. Prince Fielder, Brewers, (2)
7. Takashi Saito, Dodgers (2)
9. Russell Martin, Dodgers (1)
9. Scott Olsen, Marlins (1)
9. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins (1)
9. Josh Willingham, Marlins (1)

Marlins much? The Marlins were so loaded with young studs that the cover boy of the 2006 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, Jeremy Hermida, didn't make this list. Neither did three players who could end up being better than any of these guys: Stephen Drew, Cole Hamels and Carlos Quentin.

For the sake of argument, I'm going to rank my top five 2006 rookies in terms of who I believe will have the best careers. This isn't a scientific enterprise by any means. I'm basing it mostly on naked-eye observations while mixing in some numbers and scouting info (BP's PECOTA, which has a database that compares the stats and physical attributes of players to predict future success, baseball-reference.com's Bill James-inspired similarity scores and various scouting publications -- i.e. the annual Prospect Handbook.) Come back Wednesday and we'll do the same thing with the American League rookie crop. For now, here's my top five NL rookies from 2006:

5. Quentin, RF, Diamondbacks
He's athletic enough to play center field but will settle in as a prototype corner outfielder. Quentin slugged .530 in 166 at-bats last season and should be a 20-plus home run threat every season. In four minor-league seasons, he walked (160) nearly as often as he struck out (173).

4. Fielder, 1B, Brewers
PECOTA is bullish on Fielder, projecting five consecutive seasons at or near the 30 home run-plateau. Baseball-reference.com also loves him -- his top comparable through age 22 is Kent Hrbek. I'm buying in.

3. Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals
He's a cornerstone player with maturity beyond his years. His top two comparables by age are Ken Keltner and Ron Santo. PECOTA has Carney Lansford in his future. Check out Zimmerman's defense, too. It's pretty good.

2. Drew, SS, Diamondbacks
There were questions about his ability to handle shortstop at the major-league level, but he proved himself with the glove last season. His top PECOTA comparable is Chase Utley. I'm giving him a slight nudge ahead of Zimmerman basically because of positional bias.

1. Ramirez, SS, Marlins
The voters got it right. Ramirez's offensive numbers speak for themselves: 119 runs, 46 doubles, 11 triples, 17 home runs, 51 steals. His defense is a topic of debate, however, after an error-filled (26) 2006. Only three shortstops made more errors than Ramirez, and one of them was Felipe Lopez. Ouch. But Ramirez's shortcomings in the field can be attributed to inexperience (15 throwing errors) and not a lack of range. (Check out how good he at going to his left.) His top four comparables through age 22, according to baseball-reference.com, are Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, Lou Boudreau and Joe Sewell. PECOTA is flat out in love with him, estimating WARPs above 6.00 for each of the next five years and a five-year MORP of more than $100 million.

I left pitchers off my top five because they are so unpredictable. My top three candidates were Hamels, Cain and Johnson, in that order. Johnson has the most polish of the three but has had some arm issues to deal with of late. I couldn't get over Cain's control issues and extreme flyball tendency. Hamels was the closest to making my top five. (For all you Dodgers fans out there, James Loney still has his rookie status for 2007, so I left him off even though he debuted last season.)

Rox roll dice by keeping Helton

2007-01-31T14:42:00.000-05:00

Todd Helton needs to return to his All-Star form or the Rockies will regret keeping him around.

Al Tielemans/SI

The Rockies blew it.

That was my initial reaction to the news that the Todd Helton-to-the-Red Sox trade had fallen through. Was Colorado ever going to have a better chance to dump the majority of Helton's Brobdingnagian contract than this?

Take a look at the remaining years and dollars of Helton's deal, which was originally nine years and $141.5 million:

2007: $16.6 million
2008: $16.6 million
2009: $16.6 million
2010: $16.6 million
2011: $19.1 million
2012: $23 million option ($4.6 million buyout)

Counting the buyout, that adds up to $90.1 million for Helton's age 33-37 seasons. The Red Sox reportedly were willing to take on more than $60 million of that. Sounds pretty good, huh? To top things off, the Rockies also stood to pick up a couple of quality pieces in return, better than the driftwood that usually floats in with these salary dumps. Mike Lowell, perhaps the best defensive third baseman in the majors, and Julian Tavarez, a shineballer extraordinaire who has proven to be a useful middle reliever in the past, would have come to Denver in return. Both of them have manageable one-year contracts (Lowell at $9 million and Tavarez at $3.1 million). Both could have been dealt at midseason, allowing the club to save even more cash. Somehow, that wasn't enough as, according to reports, the Rockies torpedoed the trade by insisting that Boston include a top prospect.

What did the Rockies have to lose by making this trade?

Actually, quite a bit. Aside from the public relations hit of trading a star player and subsequent downturn at the box office, Colorado may very well be better off keeping Helton. (At least in the short term, that is.) It's easy to dismiss the Rockies as a serious ballclub because they play their home games in a high-altitude rumpus room and store their baseballs in a humidor. I'll admit I've had them pegged squarely for last place in the NL West if for no other reason than the top three teams -- San Diego, Los Angeles and particularly Arizona -- look light years better on paper.

But after taking a closer look at Colorado's talent corps and the moves they made this winter, I have to admit I've been selling them short. They won only 76 games last season but played five games below their run differential, so they were really more like a .500 team. The difference between a .500 team and a wild-card contender is only about five victories, and keeping Helton in the fold gives them a better chance of getting those extra five wins than if he were gone. He is coming off two injury-plagued seasons, but if he's as healthy as has been reported, then he is still the type of hitter you can build an offense around for a few years. (Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system has him slated for a .303-.396-.501 batting line in 2007. This mostly explains what the Red Sox were thinking in trying to acquire him. For more on the Boston end of this, check out David Pinto's take comparing the defensive abilities of Helton and Kevin Youkilis.)

The Rockies have a solid middle-of-the-order trio in left fielder Matt Holliday (27), third baseman Garrett Atkins (27) and right fielder Brad Hawpe (27). The weakest link in their lineup last season, Clint Barmes (a grizzly .220-.264-.335 in 535 plate appearances), will be replaced by stud hitting prospect Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop. That should be good for a few extra victories right there. (Kaz Matsui is in the lineup too, but let's not talk about that right now.)

Jason Jennings, their best starting pitcher, will be missed after a trade to Houston. But they have two other starters who posted a park-adjusted ERA+ above 100 last season in Aaron Cook (114) and Jeff Francis (116). They also got a lot in return for Jennings -- tall right-hander Jason Hirsch, who was the pitcher of the year in the Double-A Texas League in 2005 and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in 2006, and speedy center fielder Willy Taveras, who will cover a ton of ground in the vast Coors outfield. (Pitcher Taylor Buchholz came over in the deal also.)

I'm not saying the Rockies will make the playoffs. A lot of breaks would have to go their way for that to happen. But remember that this is a franchise that once drew 3 million fans on a regular basis but hasn't come close to that mark since 2001. A surprise wild-card run would go a long way toward alleviating that problem, and having Helton in 2007 makes that more likely than not.

The Barry & Barry Show

2006-12-28T18:33:00.000-05:00

Barry Zito won't be enough to vault the Giants into the pennant race next season.

Chuck Solomon/SI

The Giants' signing of Barry Zito to the richest contract for a pitcher in history makes sense in some ways, but it won't be enough to lift them into contender status for next season. Maybe that would be the case if the Giants were in the NL Central, but in the loaded NL West they still look like they are headed for fourth place.

On the bright side, San Francisco now has somebody it can put on the media guide cover after Barry Bonds leaves. The Giants also get a younger replacement for the departed Jason Schmidt, who left for the Dodgers earlier this winter. In fact, their numbers are pretty similar when you adjust their 2006 stats to a neutralized run environment. In other words, taking out ballpark factors and league differences. (Thank you baseball-reference.com!):

Schmidt's neutralized 2006 statistics: 14-9, 3.46 ERA
Zito's neutralized 2006 statistics: 14-10, 3.63 ERA

With or without Zito, the Giants have a lineup full of players who could have voted for Ronald Reagan ... twice. And the same bullpen that ranked 15th in the NL in ERA doesn't look to be in any better shape.

The biggest problem of all for San Francisco is the competition in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have a strong, young corps of everyday players and a trio of workhorses (Brandon Webb, Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis) at the front of the rotation. Arizona is my early pick to finish in first place. The Padres and Dodgers both made the playoffs last year and made major changes, mostly for the better, this offseason.

As far as winter acquisitions who will have the most bearing on the pennant races next season, the Zito signing isn't one of them. At least not for 2007. (Zito is young enough at 28 that they can build around him and Matt Cain for 2008.)

Here's my top five impact moves of the Hot Stove season:

Eric Gagne, Closer, Rangers
It's tough to build a contender while playing your home games in an extreme hitter's park. History shows that the best way to go about it is to assemble a lineup full of mashers and have a hammer at the end of the bullpen. If Gagne can come back healthy, he will pair up with Akinori Otsuka to give the Rangers' an eighth- and ninth-inning duo that will win them a lot of games.

Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs The Cubs were the worst team in the National League last season, but it only took 83 victories for the Cardinals to win the NL Central and it might not take much more than that in 2007. Adding Soriano to Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez gives Chicago a legitimate lineup, and the signing of Ted Lilly should help stabilize the rotation. The Cardinals are going with the kids in the rotation and the Astros lost Andy Pettitte for sure and probably Roger Clemens too. The division is so ripe for the taking that the Brewers may even be contenders now.

Mike Piazza, DH, Athletics
Even with Zito gone, the A's will have enough pitching to get their customary 90 wins. But Piazza has to be a reasonable facsimile of Frank Thomas for the offense to be anywhere near respectable.

Marcus Giles, 2B, Padres
Forget that he was non-tendered by the cash-strapped Braves. Giles is a solid all-around player who will give San Diego offense from a defensive position. Picking him up means the Padres' gamble of trading Josh Barfield to the Indians for third base prospect Kevin Kouzmanoff paid off.

Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays He's not a new acquisition, but I'm going to list his long-term extension (7 years, $126 million) here because of the message it shows to the Blue Jays players and fans that they are serious about winning. Otherwise, the Blue Jays would have had the distraction of a possible Wells trade to deal with all season during his walk year. This isn't a stathead thing to say, but I believe that will be worth at least a couple of wins in what will be a tight AL wild-card race.

What's the damage?

2006-12-07T15:17:00.000-05:00

In light of the Gil Meche signing, the Dodgers have to be ecstatic with their Jason Schmidt deal.

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

We now have the answer to the question of what is the worst signing of the offseason.

Ladies and gentleman ... Gil Meche!

The Royals forked over Dreifort Money (five years, $55 million) for a pitcher who couldn't post an ERA below 4.00 the past four seasons with the Mariners, who play their home games in a pitcher's haven.

Meche has a career record of 55-44 and a 4.65 ERA. His park-adjusted ERA-plus has failed to crack 100 (which is average) since a blip of 121 back in 2003.

As much as we might want to slay the Royals for this signing, however, we have to keep in mind that in the paradoxical world of baseball free agency, the small-market, low-revenue teams have to pay more for talent than the rich contenders. That makes as much sense as celebrities and pro athletes never having to pay for any meals and indulging in all the swag they can get their grubby hands on while the rest of us have to pay for everything.

Here is some quick-and-dirty analysis of the deals that have gone down in the past couple of days:

Dodgers sign Jason Schmidt (three years, $47 million)
I liked this contract even before the Meche signing. Why spend $10 million for an average pitcher when you can get an All-Star for $6 million more? This also serves the dual purpose of further crippling the rival Giants, who will have to sign Barry Bonds if they want to finish out of last place next season.

A's sign Mike Piazza (one year, $8.5 million)
Billy Beane's answer to losing Frank Thomas to the Blue Jays. To paraphrase the Guinness commercial: "Piazza as a full-time DH? BRILLIANT!" The only downside is that I'm going to miss the Padres' stellar catching platoon of Piazza and Josh Bard from last season; they combined to hit 31 home runs with 108 RBIs.

Phillies trade for Freddy Garcia
Philly GM Pat Gillick atones for the unfortunate Adam Eaton contract in a nice way. Garcia is an innings-eater who is already used to pitching in a homer-happy ballpark (The Cell), so Citizens Bank won't faze him. Though he struggled for much of last season, he looked pretty good toward the end (2.49 ERA in his final six starts.) The top four of the Phillies' rotation suddenly looks respectable: Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Garcia, Jamie Moyer. The White Sox got to dump salary and picked up two young arms (Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez) in the deal.

Cubs sign Ted Lilly (four years, $40 million)
Not to be glib about it but I would probably have to go in for an angioplasty too if I were about to fork over $40 million for Lilly. With Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Wade Miller as big question marks, the Cubs needed to add innings. Even though Lilly is no workhorse, having never crossed the 200-inning barrier, at his best he's at least an above-average starting pitcher. Lilly is battle-tested -- he's pitched in the AL his entire career and the AL East for most of it. Besides, if you are the Cubs, why are you going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on bats and not throw in an arm or two?

Giants sign Bengie Molina (three years, $16 million)
It's a reasonable enough deal for a team still trying to fill out a 25-man roster. Molina can catch pretty well, hit OK and run not at all.

Indians sign Joe Borowski (one year, $4.25 million)
Yet another graduate of the Marlins' School For Down And Out Closers. In case you haven't caught on to its game, Florida annually fills its closer slot by bringing in a downtrodden reliever on a one-year deal then sitting back and enjoying the view as he vastly outplays his contract. At the end of the season, he's free to sign for a lot more money elsewhere in the offseason. Borowski follows in the footsteps of Todd Jones (40 saves in '05) and Armando Benitez (47 saves in '04), two closers who have yet to match the success they had while with the Fish.

Boston digs deep

2006-12-06T16:19:00.000-05:00

Red Sox fans will love J.D. Drew ... when he's in the lineup.

Robert Beck/SI

Boston's signing of J.D. Drew to a five-year, $70 million deal is sure to drive a splinter between his longtime detractors, of which there are many, and statheads who can't help but love a hitter with good rate stats. Even the most ardent Drew-haters have to admit that a career batting line of .286-.393-.512 looks pretty good behind David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez in a lineup.

Julio Lugo also joins the Red Sox at a hefty rate of four years, $36 million. I've always seen Lugo as a poor man's Edgar Renteria; he produces close to the same numbers as Renteria while making a lot less money. Now he's making Renteria money, so your verdict on this deal depends on you much you like ... Renteria.

I don't have a problem with either signing. If the plan was for the Red Sox to replace Ramirez with Drew, then that would have been a tough sell. But with both Drew and Ramirez in the fold, the Red Sox suddenly are proud owners of a legitimate American League outfield. Wily Mo Pena is better off as a fourth outfielder; he can spell Ramirez in left field while avoiding the difficult right field at Fenway Park altogether.

If nothing else, the Red Sox should be lauded for embracing the identity of a large-market superpower. Last year, they approached the Hot Stove season as if they were Bill Clinton-era democrats, trying to account for every penny spent with a corresponding move. It was painful watching the Red Sox move heaven and earth to acquire such mediocre talents as Coco Crisp and Wily Mo Pena while allowing the blue-chip talents to go elsewhere. They were like Johnny Chan showing up at the Taj with a short stack. It was unbecoming.

They let Johnny Damon walk away to the Yankees because they drew the line in the sand at $40 million based on The Pedro Principle of not committing longterm dollars to aging players. Well, Drew will be 31 on Opening Day, as will Lugo. (Damon will be 33 on Opening Day 2007 with three years left on his four-year, $52 million.) I bring this up not to rub salt in any old wounds but to emphasize something that may be lost on any Red Sox fans with rose-colored glasses: Damon is a better player than Drew. At least he was last year and will be again the next couple of seasons.

It is only through this prism -- what might have been -- that I can find a bone to pick with the Drew signing. In and of itself, it's a wise investment for a team that needs help in a lot of places. I've watched Drew play his entire career, dating to when he was in college at Florida State. He is what he is -- a fabulous talent who gets hurt a lot.

It's hard for players like Drew to get a fair shake. Rate stats players are difficult to appreciate because it's hard to discern with the naked eye how one or two extra walks per week helps the team's run production. Hee Seop Choi is a good example of this syndrome. You have to look at the numbers to appreciate what they bring to the table.

Do the Drew and Lugo signings make the Red Sox a better team? Absolutely. At the same time, I think it's fair to ask if the Sox would be just as good if they had simply kept Damon and Renteria. Toward that end, I asked Nate Silver from Baseball Prospectus if he could provide the outlooks (the devastatingly accurate PECOTAs) for all four of these players for the next four seasons and he graciously came through. (Pre-order your copy of Baseball Prospectus 2007 here.) Check it out:

(NOTE: VORP is Value Over Replacement Player; WARP is Wins Above Replacement Player)

J.D. Drew
Year, VORP, WARP
2007, 20.9, 4.7
2008, 14.8, 4.1
2009, 11.3, 3.3
2010, 9.2, 2.3

Johnny Damon
Year, VORP, WARP
2007, 33.6, 5.6
2008, 24.4, 4.6
2009, 23.9, 4.2
2010, 17.8, 3.3

Julio Lugo
Year, VORP, WARP
2007, 16.5, 4.7
2008, 16.6, 4.1
2009, 10.8, 3.1
2010, 10.7, 2.6

Edgar Renteria
Year, VORP, WARP
2007, 26.4, 4.3
2008, 19, 3.6
2009, 14.6, 2.8
2010, 11.4, 2.3

Thumbs Up, Thumbs Down

2006-12-05T12:22:00.000-05:00

The Dodgers did well to bring back Nomar Garciaparra.

Robert Beck/SI

Let's play a little game of catch-up on the key offseason moves to date as the Winter Meetings get into full swing. We'll update with new posts as major moves go down this week, but for now let's review the story so far:

Five Deals I like

Gary Sheffield, OF-DH, Tigers (via trade)
By the time he's through, Sheffield will have had the most itinerant career for a Hall of Famer since Gaylord Perry. As great a hitter as he is, he simply cannot avoid wearing out his welcome. Look at his career. Do you realize he's going to go into the Hall with a Marlins cap? But that's of no concern for the Tigers, who found an anchor for their uneven lineup by trading from a position of strength. The Yankees may end up winners in this deal too if one of the three quality young arms they acquired from Detroit (notably Humberto Sanchez) prove to be useful.

Nomar Garciaparra, 1B, Dodgers (2 years, $18.5 million)
He both dominated and struggled at times last season, but the Dodgers couldn't afford to let him go. If he gets hurt, then we'll see if James Loney is ready to take over full time. With J.D. Drew gone, the Dodgers might need to find a way to get them both in the lineup, especially if the rumored Manny Ramirez trade doesn't happen.

Gary Matthews Jr., CF, Angels (5 years, $50 million)
This is one of the most heavily criticized moves of the winter, and I tend to agree that it's too much money for a 32-year-old journeyman coming off of a career year. Matthews is not likely to repeat his 2006 numbers again during the course of this contract, but he might come close on a fairly consistent basis. Look at the Angels' lineup from last season. Other than Vladimir Guerrero and Juan Rivera, they stunk. Their two primary center fielders, Chone Figgins and Darin Erstad, posted an OPS-plus of 89 and 60, respectively. (An OPS-plus of 100 is average; the statistic is park-adjusted.) That'terrible. Even if Matthews is average, it's a major upgrade for them.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs (5 years, $75 million)
He'll be 28 on Opening Day, so the length of the deal isn't a major drawback. Besides, if the Cubs let this guy get away, it might take them another 30 years to find a decent third baseman.

The Matsuzaka bid
Yes, the Red Sox outbid themselves with the $51.1 million posting fee, but look at it this way: Boston has money to burn and it desperately needs pitching. Ergo, the posting fee and whatever they end up paying Daisuke Matsuzaka makes sense. The Japanese ace is entering his prime years and it won't cost any talent to sign him -- just cash. Even if ticket prices go up at Fenway as a result, Red Sox fans already are paying the equivalent of a second mortgage to watch their team play. It's Monopoly money at this point, for the team and the fans, and Matsuzaka is talented enough to get them over the top in the AL playoff race.

Honorable mention: Mike Mussina agreeing to stay in the Bronx; the Mets' signing Orlando Hernandez, Tom Glavine and Moises Alou; both ends of the Indians-Padres trade, which sent second baseman Josh Barfield to Cleveland and third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff to San Diego; the Cardinals keeping Jim Edmonds for two seasons at $19 million; the D'backs getting underrated left-hander Doug Davis from Milwaukee; Texas snagging the useful Frank Catalanottto away from Toronto; Sean Casey, overrated as he is, at the bargain-basement rate of one year, $4 million.

Five Deals I Don't Like

Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs (8 years, $136 million)
Soriano is never going to be patient enough to be the bellwether of an offense the way Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez are, but he is a dynamic player who can hit 40 home runs in any park, especially Wrigley Field. Eight years, though? That is an awfully long time to expect a player to live up to his contract. Soriano will be 31 on Opening Day. It would take some Weimar Republic-like inflation for him to be worth anywhere close to $17 million a year in his late thirties.

Juan Pierre, CF, Dodgers (5 years, $44 million)
Pierre's been living on reputation for a while now. He hasn't posted an OBP above .350 since 2004. He makes at least 500 outs a year. He can still chase 'em down in center but he has a popgun arm. The White Sox kept Scott Podsednik for one year, $2.9 million. The Giants signed Dave Roberts for $18 million over three years. I don't see how Pierre is any better than either of those other two players.

Carlos Lee, OF, Astros (6 years, $100 million)
He's a lot like Soriano in that he puts up the shiny numbers that most people care about -- home runs and RBIs. But look deeper and you see a guy who doesn't walk much, has never posted an OPS-plus higher than 125 and is now on the wrong side of 30.

Frank Thomas, DH, Blue Jays (2 years, $18 million)
Paying full price for last year's bargain does not a Moneyball team make, but at least Thomas is a difference-maker when healthy, which is more than I can say for Toronto's new shortstop, Royce Clayton.

Alex Gonzalez, SS, Reds (3 years, $14,000,000)
The Red Sox had the right idea with him -- he's a potentially decent stopgap. He might enjoy a one-year resurgence in power thanks to the GABP, but otherwise Reds fans can expect more of the same from a player with a career .292 OBP and fading defense. This isn't nearly as bad news for Reds fans as the hiring of Thom "Amaaaazing" Brennaman and Jeff Brantley to the announcing team. Shudders.

Dis-honorable mention: Philly giving two years and $5.45 million to role player Wes Helms (yet another consequence of the awful Placido Polanco trade) and $24.5 million to the below-average Adam Eaton (career ERA-plus of 92); the Angels breaking the bank for setup man Justin Speier when they already have a loaded bullpen; pretty much anything done by Baltimore (Kevin Millar, Jaret Wright and a string of overpriced relievers).

Hot Stove preview

2006-11-10T12:42:00.000-05:00

Who else is fired up to see the Wily Mo Pena adventure in right field?

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

The deadline for free agents to file is Saturday. After that, the signings will come fast and furious. Before the Hot Stove fray begins in earnest, let's take a look at which items will be on each team's shopping list. I've compiled the American League list below, ranked by order of finish in each division. For the Senior Circuit fans, I haven't forgotten you ...

CLICK HERE for the NL breakdown from SI.com's Jon Weisman. Afterward, come back to the blog and have your say.

AL East

New York Yankees
Top Needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, first base
Even if Mike Mussina comes back, the Yankees still have to account for the fact that Randy Johnson is done as a true No. 1 and that they may never get much or any use out of Carl Pavano or Jaret Wright. Their two best pitchers next season might be Chien-Ming Wang and Philip Hughes. That's not a bad thing, but it might not be enough to win the AL East again, especially since Wang is due for some regression next year. The bullpen needs some depth behind Mariano Rivera, Scott Proctor and Kyle Farnsworth, and first base will need to addressed now that the Gary Sheffield experiment is officially a failure.

Toronto Blue Jays
Top Needs: Starting pitching, shortstop, catcher
Both their catchers -- Gregg Zaun and Bengie Molina -- are free agents and they stand to lose pitchers Ted Lilly and Justin Speier in free agency. Shortstop was a black hole for them last season and they will need to shop for a replacement. But those are minor concerns in comparison to the major challenge facing Toronto: locking up the supremely talented Vernon Wells to a long-term contract. It will be hard to take this franchise seriously if they don't do what is necessary to keep him.

Boston Red Sox
Top Needs: Relief pitching, starting pitching, shortstop, second baseman, outfield Even with Jonathan Papelbon moving into the rotation, the Red Sox will need at least one more capable starter, especially if Josh Beckett is going to post another ERA-plus of 92 (100 is average). The Sox can go cheap to fill second base (Dustin Pedroia) and right field (Wily Mo Pena), but if they really want to unseat the Yankees, it's time to open up the pocketbook and stop obsessing over value buys.

Baltimore Orioles
Top Needs: Relief pitching, first base, outfield
Save for Rodrigo Lopez, the starting pitching is in good shape. The problem is the bullpen, which has to be rebuilt around closer Chris Ray. The lineup is in bad shape, too. They need to buy thumpers to fill first base and one of the corner outfield spots, and it's time to search for a replacement for Melvin Mora, who will be 35 by opening day and is coming off a poor season.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Top Needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, first base
If Delmon Young plays the whole season, they won't lose 100 games again in 2007. But if they are going to get serious, they have to develop some pitchers to go along with the young position players they have, because you know they won't go out on the market to buy any decent arms.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins
Top Needs: Starting pitching, outfield
Francisco Liriano isn't coming back until 2008 and Brad Radke is retiring. That leaves Boof Bonser and -- gulp! -- Carlos Silva as the primary starters behind Johan Santana. Minnesota is already planning on spending a whopping $70 million on next year's club, having picked up the $12 million option for center fielder Torii Hunter. Right fielder Michael Cuddyer is solid in right field but they need some insurance for left field in case Jason Kubel can't cut it again.

Detroit Tigers
Top Needs: First base, outfield
The worst thing Tigers fans can do is fall in love with Sean Casey. His big hits in the postseason aside, he's not the long-term solution for Detroit at first base. Left field is another spot they can upgrade, even if another 20-plus homer season from Four-A player Marcus Thames is possible. This team hit 203 home runs last season, so it has power. What it lacks are tough outs up and down the lineup. Last season, only Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez were capable of consistently producing quality at-bats. (UPDATE -- The Tigers have traded for Gary Sheffield. That should satisfy the need for a power-hitting outfielder.)

Chicago White Sox
Top Needs: Center field, Relief pitching, shortstop
Can we all agree now that Brian Anderson isn't the answer in center field? His OPS-plus was 65 last season. I don't care how good his defense is if he is going to hit like that. (And, for the record, his glovework wasn't that great.) Relievers Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte were unsung heroes in 2005 but flopped in '06, leading to the collapse of the bullpen. Brandon McCarthy is headed to the rotation, so maybe they can flip one of their other starters for help in the 'pen or the outfield.

Cleveland Indians
Top Needs: Relief pitching, outfield/first base
You know how easy it is to get a save nowadays? Well, not for these guys. The Indians converted a league-low 24 saves last season. That's hard to do, and it goes a long way toward explaining why they finished 11 games below their run differential. The other culprit was poor defense, and the Indians have already begun to address that by trading for second baseman Josh Barfield. Now if they can figure out how to upgrade from Jhonny Peralta at shortstop and move catcher Victor Martinez to first base, they're in business.

Kansas City Royals
Top Needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, first base, outfield ...
The worst pitching staff in club history doesn't stand to get much better until prospect Luke Hochevar arrives and Zack Greinke resurfaces. When that happens and Billy Butler and Alex Gordon come up, then you'll see some progress.

AL West

Oakland Athletics
Top Needs: Frank Thomas, outfield, starting pitcher, manager
Losing Barry Zito won't be as much of a blow as you would think because this club is loaded with pitching. Keeping The Big Hurt at DH is of paramount importance, because most of the other A's can't hit a lick. Nick Swisher's ability to play outfield and first base gives them some leeway as far as finding another useful corner bat.

Los Angeles Angels
Top Needs: Outfield, third base, first base
A healthy Garret Anderson can go a long way toward solving the offensive woes for a team that ranked 11th in the league in runs last season. Even so, they need to add legitimate power at their infield corner spots and at least one outfield position (Anderson can DH). Alfonso Soriano would be a perfect fit.

Texas Rangers
Top Needs: Outfield, starting pitching
The Rangers ranked in the bottom half of the AL in home runs last season. That's not acceptable for a team that plays in a launching pad for a home stadium. Carlos Lee and Gary Matthews Jr. are free agents, and they will be hard-pressed to keep either of them. Before they spend tens of millions on a blockbuster deal for a pitcher, they need to construct an offense that suits their ballpark.

Seattle Mariners
Top Needs: Starting pitching, outfield, DH
They have the same problem as the Rangers -– they aren't built for their home ballpark. Playing at Safeco Field, they need to be a pitching-rich team, but last season they ranked in the lower half of the AL in runs allowed. (Predictably, they were 13th in runs scored.) They didn't have a single pitcher with an ERA below 4.00. It doesn't help that Jamie Moyer is gone to Philly and isn't coming back. Picking up another hefty bat to complement Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez in the power game should be a priority as well.

In case you missed my link to it earlier, here's the National League Hot Stove preview.

Game 5 Grades

2006-10-28T01:32:00.000-04:00

Elsa/Getty Images

Congrats to Cardinals Nation. There will be a great deal of fretting from purists who don't like to see an 83-win team win it all, but this isn't the time to debate that right now. (Just tell them to go take a horse-and-buggy ride off a cliff.) The loyal Redbird fans have waited a long time for this and deserve to celebrate. Personally, I can't help feel empty inside, as I always do this time of year, knowing that we have to wait five months before the start of next season. This World Series ended just when it was starting to get good. I thought a seven-game classic was still possible up until the last out of Game 5.

Aside from their 10th ring in franchise history, Cardinals fans can take pride in knowing that the main course at every Baseball Writers Association of America dinners this winter will be crow, crow and more crow. Somebody pass the Tabasco sauce. Now that Jeanne Zelasko's annual tradition of awkward trophy presentations is over with, let's get on with the grades one last time.

Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitching
Justin Verlander settled down after a frenetic first inning that featured three walks, two wild pitches, about a dozen mound visits and, somehow, zero runs. His finest moment came in the third inning when he brought momentum back to the Tigers with a strike-‘em-out, throw-‘em-out double play. He gave it right back, however, with yet another example of terrible fielding by a Detroit pitcher (more on that below.)
Grade: B

Bullpen
Fernando Rodney issued a walk for the third consecutive outing and it ended up helping the Cardinals get an insurance run in the seventh.
Grade: C

Offense
They would have been better off with Ivan Rodriguez batting eighth. He killed so many rallies I had to double check to make sure that wasn’t Neifi Perez taking his at-bats for him. Brandon Inge's baserunning gaffe in the top of the third -- getting caught off second base on a comebacker to the pitcher -- was the biggest play of the game. When Sean Casey is the only real threat in your lineup, you've got problems.
Grade: C-

Defense
I know what these guys are doing on the first day of spring training: Pitching Fielding Practice. The pitchers weren't alone in their incompetence. Inge had a brutal Series defensively, which is too bad because he's better than that. Inge belongs among the top tier of defensive third basemen in the AL along with Eric Chavez and Joe Crede. Shortstop Carlos Guillen, who made a sweet play on a roller up the middle to end the first inning, set up the Cardinals' insurance run when he double-clutched the throw on David Eckstein's grounder in the hole.
Grade: F

Managing
Is it Jim Leyland's fault that the Tigers decided to play like the Devil Rays for three consecutive World Series games? The blame has to start somewhere. His players consistently vapor locked in key spots during these three straight losses. The Tigers better hope they can get back to the Series before Leyland's pilot light burns out again.
Grade: C-

St. Louis Cardinals

Starting Pitching
Back in spring training, I was ROFL when John Donovan filed this story about how Jeff Weaver would blossom into a star someday. He didn't mention it would be for another team after ruining the Angels' season but, hey, nobody's perfect. Weaver nearly was tonight, though. His stuff had so much movement within the strike zone tonight that he didn't give the Tigers much to hit, and when you do that to an impatient lineup like Detroit's, then you're going to be successful. More than anything, Weaver finally showed some backbone this postseason. He didn't get down on himself when things started to go wrong. Case in point: Top of the sixth, Chris Duncan turns an easy fly ball into a double, Weaver whiffs I-Rod to end the inning.
Grade: A+

Bullpen
Adam Wainwright closed out another series with a clutch save. Let the debate begin for next season: starter or closer? I vote for the former. The kid's stuff is so good you need to get 200 innings out of him.
Grade: A

Offense
Twelve years ago on a sunny spring day in Gainesville, Fla., I went out to the ballpark to interview a walk-on second baseman named Eckstein for the first baseball story of my fledgling career. If you think he's scrawny now, you should have seen him back then. I walked away from the interview thinking, "I don't know if he can play, but he's got spirit." Yeah, the kid can play. Way to go, David. You've made Gator Nation proud once again. Now get ready for a whole offseason of stats geeks trying to explain to all of us why Eckstein is not a good ballplayer.
Grade: A

Defense
Earlier this Series, Tony La Russa took issue with a scouting report in USA Today that referred to Duncan as a butcher in right field. "Whoever wrote that better stay away from [pitching coach and father] Dave Duncan," La Russa said. "Because that's awful." Hate to say this Tony but the scouting report was correct. Duncan botched two plays in the outfield, each of which could have turned the Series around. I was having flashbacks to Manny Ramirez's misadventures in right field for the Indians. FOX analyst Tim McCarver was right to call out La Russa for not removing Duncan from the game with a one-run lead and 12 outs to go.
Grade: B-

Managing
Weaver was rolling after eight but La Russa was correct in taking him out because Casey was due to bat second in the ninth. But I've always thought game strategy was an overrated part of managing, anyway. Where La Russa and his pitching coach deserve credit is for turning Weaver into a useful pitcher again. They also cobbled together a dominant bullpen out of a bunch of rookies. Ultimately, that's how this Series was won.
Grade: A

Game 4 Grades

2006-10-27T01:29:00.000-04:00

Does this mean the Tigers aren't winning in three?

What, no rain delay? I was so looking forward to another mini-marathon of The War At Home, which fills the Married With Children template (buxom wife, bumbling husband) admirably. Next time would it be too much to ask for some classic TWIB reruns? How about MASH, Sanford and Son or Andy Griffith? You know The Baseball Bunch would hit the spot. On to the grades for a game that was easily the best of this Series but was marred by the return of Scooter.

Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitching
If not for a couple of two-out hits by the Cardinals, we might have seen Jeremy Bonderman follow the pattern of dominant pitching performances with a gem of his own. Bonderman set the tone for Detroit early by retiring Albert Pujols the first two times through the order. The way he was throwing his slider to righties, it was surprising that David Eckstein and Yadier Molina would end up hurting him with RBI doubles. Either the Cardinals made the right adjustments or Bonderman didn't stick with what was working. Or maybe both.
Grade: B

Bullpen
Fernando Rodney was the first guy in and he got the Tigers out of a first-and-third, one-out jam by blowing away two Cardinals with strikeouts. Rodney's pitching was fine, but his fielding let him down in the seventh inning. (See below.) Joel Zumaya has yet to regain his ALCS form.
Grade: C

Offense
Forget all the talk about improving their plate discipline. The Tigers got back to what they do best: see the ball and hit it hard. They pounded four extra-base hits on the night, keyed by Sean Casey's home run to open the scoring. Ivan Rodriguez (three hits) finally contributed, but they are still waiting for a big hit from ALCS hero Magglio Ordonez.
Grade: B

Defense
The outfield was so soggy, it's not fair to rip on Curtis Granderson for falling down on Eckstein's double in the seventh. The bigger play in that inning was Rodney chucking So Taguchi's sac bunt over the first baseman's head. The error allowed the tying run to score and Preston Wilson put the Cardinals ahead four batters later with a two-out RBI single. Craig Monroe contributing to the Eckstein Doubles Fund didn't help matters any.
Grade: D

Managing
The Tigers could have gotten a rally going in the sixth inning but Jim Leyland decided to let Bonderman bat with a runner on first and one out. This was a mistake. Scott Rolen, who had hit Bonderman hard in his first two at-bats, was due to lead off the bottom of the inning. Detroit needed to pinch-hit here and go for the big inning. Instead, Bonderman laid down a sac bunt and they ended up getting nothing. Bonderman then gave up a leadoff double to Rolen and left a mess for the Tigers' bullpen to clean up.
Grade: C

St. Louis Cardinals

Starting Pitching
Jeff Suppan gave the Cardinals another good effort. He looked finished in the fifth inning when Casey victimized him again with his third hit of the night, but Suppan retired Rodriguez to end the rally and ended up going six strong innings.
Grade: B

Bullpen
Save for Game 4 against the Mets, this group has been fantastic all postseason. Four relievers combined to allow two hits and zero walks in three innings. The only blemish was the game-tying double Adam Wainwright yielded to his first batter, Brandon Inge.
Grade: A-

Offense
There are a lot of statheads out there who don't have nice things to say about Eckstein, an OPS-challenged, average defensive player who just happens to be one win away from earning his second ring as a starting shortstop. Call him whatever you want, just make sure to give him his proper due as a winning ballplayer. His four hits (three doubles) ignited the St. Louis attack and evoked images of the God of Clutch himself, Derek Jeter.
Grade: A

Defense
Maybe they were better accustomed to how this field drains (or doesn't, as the case may be) after heavy rain. Unlike Detroit, the Cards avoided the big mistakes and played a clean game.
Grade: A

Managing
La Russa was all about taking chances tonight. In the third inning, he ordered up a hit-and-run with Aaron Miles at first and Suppan up to bat. Miles stole second on the play and later scored on an Eckstein double. Allowing Suppan to face Casey a third time in the fifth inning was questionable, especially with a runner on first base, two outs in the inning and a lefty warmed up in the bullpen. And then there was his biggest call of the night, bringing in Wainwright for a five-out save in the eighth inning. The rookie closer failed to hold the lead, but he came back strong in the ninth to close out the game. Like many of La Russa's moves lately, it worked out in the end.
Grade: A

Joe Buck the Meteorologist

That was some nifty telestrator work with the Doppler radar on Wednesday night, Joe. Your forecasts were so bad you made us look like Nostradamus with our postseason picks. Hopefully you will quit your regular job on FOX and devote yourself full time to this weatherman gig. Please.
Grade: F

New York, New York

2006-10-25T19:37:00.000-04:00

We don't need the World Series here in New York, not when we've got the world's largest candied apple to enjoy.

This is some World Series, huh? The first three games each have been won by a dominant pitching performance, which is fine -- if you love pitching. That doesn't do much for the drama quotient, though. There haven't been many strategy points to debate, either. How could there be when the Cardinals and Tigers are taking turns completely shutting each other down? This is like the Bob Gibson and Mickey Lolich show all over again.

Working in New York, the most enjoyable aspect of this week has been watching Mets and Yankees fans cringe at the mere mention of Tigers-Cardinals. That's if they acknowledge that there is a World Series going on at all. Mets fans have it particularly tough, having been so close to beating St. Louis in Game 7. Many are still in denial. And it can't be easy for Yankees fans to see Kenny Rogers continue his Sandy Koufax impersonation after emasculating Murderer's Row & Cano in the first round. To make matters worse, we all have to wait until the Series is over to get new episodes of House.

You know, maybe there is something we could do to help the downtrodden Big Apple baseball fans. Let's see if we can't come up with things for them to do so they can keep busy while the Cardinals and Tigers compete for that elusive World Series trophy. Here's my top five suggestions. Don't be shy about adding your own. The first person to mention "East Coast Bias" in their post gets a free food or drink.

1) Relive your glorious pasts! YES Network and SNY have a full slate of Mets Classics and Yankees Classics broadcast planned. This week alone, YES is showing Game 3 of the 1999 World Series and Game 6 from the '96 Fall Classic. On Sunday, while the Tigers and Cardinals may be staging a Game 7, Mets and Yankees fans can huddle close together by the fire and take in the rebroadcast of Game 5 of the 2000 Subway Series. (I totally thought Mike Piazza got all of that one in the ninth, didn't you?)

Of course, SNY is badly outgunned in this department by YES. Earlier today, for instance, SNY showed the Carlos Beltran-walk-off-homer game against the Cardinals from this August. Was that supposed to ease the sting of Beltran ending the NLCS with the bat still on his shoulder? Or make it worse? Does the "S" in SNY stand for "Sadistic?" No matter. They will make up for it on Friday by showing Game 7 of the 1986 World Series.

2) Make your final preps for next month's New York City Marathon. Nothing like good run to shake off that October hangover.

3) How about some homespun activities? Make candy apples for the kids or go out and pick pumpkins the way Brian Cashman does on the free agent market.

4) Are you ready for some football? The Jets and Giants have winning records and may contend for the playoffs. Out here in Jersey, you know we're proud of our undefeated Rutgers Scarlet Knights. And for comic relief there's always the Knicks.

5) Make voodoo dolls of Rogers and Jeff Weaver and set them over an open flame.

Game 3 Grades

2006-10-25T00:56:00.000-04:00

So Taguchi denied Magglio Ordonez of a base hit in the seventh inning with this diving catch.

Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitching
Nate Robertson doesn’t have the best stuff, but he moves the ball in and out and has a knack for avoiding the big inning. The Cardinals loaded the bases with no outs in the fourth and were held to two runs. He was lifted for a pinch-hitter after five solid innings.
Grade: B

Bullpen
The good news for Detroit is that Joel Zumaya’s velocity and stuff are still there after a 14-day layoff. His location was lacking, though, as he walked the first two batters to lead off the seventh, including Preston Wilson, which is really hard to do. So what was Fernando Rodney’s excuse? It wasn’t rust -- he pitched an inning in Game 1 on Saturday. In the eighth inning, he also committed the egregious sin of walking Wilson. Rodney also walked So Taguchi and allowed a single to David Eckstein and left without recording an out.
Grade: C-

Offense
The Tigers failed to get the leadoff hitter on base in every inning. It’s hard to score when you do that. This was a team that was consistently shut down by good pitching this season, and Chris Carpenter is the definition of a good pitcher.
Grade: C

Defense
Zumaya botched an easy double play on a comebacker hit by Albert Pujols in the seventh inning, opting to go for the rare 1-5-3 DP instead of taking the easier route at second base. Zumaya's throwing error resulted in two huge add-on runs for the Cardinals. Otherwise, the defense was solid. In the fourth, third baseman Brandon Inge made the right decision by throwing to the plate for the forceout instead of trying to go around the horn for a double play, and substitute Neifi Perez turned a sweet two-fer to get the Tigers out of a jam in the eighth.
Grade: C

Managing
Jim Leyland's best move of the night was allowing Robertson to face Pujols in the fifth inning and let him work his way through one last jam. Few of his bullpen moves worked tonight, especially the Zumaya-Rodney power combo that has been so effective this season. Leyland’s biggest problem may not be something he can fix: In two losses, the Tigers’ hitters walked a grand total of one time (none in Game 3). This is not a patient ballclub and it’s a little late in the game for these Tigers to change their stripes.
Grade: C

St. Louis Cardinals

Starting Pitching
Carpenter had it all working tonight, especially his curveball. He didn’t go to a three-ball count on any batter and allowed zero extra-base hits. He injured his hand during his second at-bat, in the fourth inning, which limited the use of his curve. But he compensated by spotting his fastball, including a perfect low-and-inside heater to Inge that induced an inning-ending double play in the eighth.
Grade: A+

Bullpen
Not much to see here. Braden Looper pitched the ninth inning and, upon seeing no New York Mets anywhere in sight, set them down in order.
Grade: A

Offense
Sooner or later, Tony La Russa’s insistence on playing Wilson and batting him second had to pay off, didn’t it? Wilson was the key to the St. Louis offense. He singled to lead off the fourth to spark a two-run rally and set up two other rallies with walks. Meanwhile, has anybody noticed that Yadier Molina has three more hits this series than Ivan Rodriguez?
Grade: B+

Defense
Carpenter didn’t allow for much hard contact tonight, but he did get a couple of nice plays in the seventh: Pujols robbing Placido Polanco on a line drive and So Taguchi diving to deny Magglio Ordonez of a base hit to right field.
Grade: A

Managing
La Russa kept all of his bullets in his holster, sending no pinch-hitters to the plate. Carpenter’s dominance made the point moot, but it’s fair to ask why La Russa allowed his pitcher to bat in the bottom of the eighth after Taguchi led off with a walk. With right-hander Rodney pitching, it would have made sense to go with lefty-hitting Chris Duncan to try to break open a 4-0 game. Instead, Carpenter laid down a sac bunt and the Cardinals ended up with only one run to extend their lead to 5-0. La Russa ended up pulling Carpenter before the ninth, anyway. La Russa also had Scott Spiezio available to hit and couldn’t find the right spot for him, either.
Grade: B

Catch him if you can

2006-10-23T16:44:00.000-04:00

Is Kenny Rogers a latter-day Gaylord Perry?

Herb Scharfman/SI

"All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand."
-- Lady Macbeth

I figured that quote was appropriate since the discovery of a smudge on Kenny Rogers' pitching hand in Game 2 is being treated as a tragedy of Shakespearian proportions. Somehow, The Smudge -- as it may forever be known in the annals of postseason controversies -- overshadowed another brilliant outing by Rogers. At least that's what many of the headlines around the nation are saying today. But I don't buy it.

Even if that was pine tar or turpentine or chocolate icing on his hand, I don't see how it had an impact on the outcome of the game. After the first inning, he was warned by his teammates to wipe his hand clean. After that point, his stuff got better, not worse. I reviewed the video to see if he shied away from any of his pitches after the first inning, to see if maybe the substance was helping him grip his curveball more or spot his fastball better, but his approach remained the same -- cut fastball on the corner, sinking fastball on the black (to righties) and the looping curveball that induces soft contact.

Nobody can point to The Smudge and take anything away from his performance. Besides, even if he was cheating -- and skeptics can say that he merely moved the substance elsewhere, like the bill of his cap -- this is baseball, not golf. The culture of baseball is different than perhaps any other sport in that it tolerates -- if not embraces -- getting any kind of edge that you can. The runner on second is always going to try to steal a sign from the catcher, and the third-base coach's signs are fair game for those who can decipher them. The burden is on the umpires and the opposing team to catch the offender; in golf, the onus is on the individual to abide by the honor system. I'm not saying that cheating on your taxes or on your SATs or in anything else that happens in everyday life is right. I'm just saying that's the way it is in baseball from time immemorial -- you cheat until you get caught. And if you don't get caught, then you get a congratulations for getting away with it. I don't see the Giants offering to give back the Dodgers the 1951 pennant anytime soon, do you?

If anything, I'm impressed that Rogers has been getting away with doctoring the ball for this long. This series of photos clearly shows he has smudged before, in the ALCS against Oakland and even going back to a July start against the White Sox. It's amazing that nobody cared to notice this until the FOX cameraman focused in on it Sunday. If he really has been getting over this whole time, then you just have to tip your cap to him and try to catch him in the act the next time around. (SI.com's Jon Heyman spoke to a bullpen coach who has a good theory on what Rogers was doing.)

This isn't the first time in recent years that this facet of the game has come to conflict with our society's newfound and complete intolerance for cheaters and liars of any sort. (Maybe this is all fallout from the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal. Who knows?) I was stunned at how much the corked bat incident damaged Sammy Sosa's image; allegations of something else ruined whatever was left. Speaking of which, has Rafael Palmeiro even come out of his bunker yet? Palmeiro's biggest sin wasn't taking the stuff, it was lying to us about it. In that sense, I was disappointed with Rogers' explanation after the game ("It was a big clump of dirt"), which strained any sense of credulity and bordered on the same sin Palmeiro committed -- underestimating our collective intelligence. But we need to separate any judgments on Rogers' character with his on-field performance.

What Rogers needs to do is play up this controversy. He needs to come out in Game 6 with unexplained smudges all over his uniform and a filthy cap that he keeps rubbing between pitches. Gaylord Perry is in the Hall of Fame partly because of antics like this; even when he wasn't cheating, he knew any psychological edge he could get on a hitter was important.

Game 2 Grades

2006-10-23T00:44:00.000-04:00

Todd Jones nearly booted away Game 2.

St. Louis Cardinals

Starting Pitching
Jeff Weaver once again showed the moxie we never knew he had prior to this postseason, especially in the fourth inning when he emerged unscathed out of a bases-loaded, nobody out pickle. He had another fine moment in the third inning when, with two runners on and two outs, he rallied from a 3-1 count to retire Pudge Rodriguez. Weaver left after allowing three runs in five innings, but he kept his team in the ballgame and remained aggressive in the strike zone.
Grade: B

Bullpen
Once again the Cardinals’ young bullpen came through as five relievers combined to limit Detroit to one hit in three innings. The ‘pen was the unsung element to the Cardinals’ NLCS upset. The Tigers will have to crack it sooner or later to win this Series.
Grade: A

Offense
First the Yankees, then the A’s and now the Cardinals. Neither of these three offenses were able to score a run off Kenny Rogers, so we can’t come down too hard on the St. Louis batters. Still, I can’t help thinking that Juan Encarnacion could have batted a dozen more times against Rogers without having a prayer of getting a hit.
Grade: C

Defense
Weaver put himself in a hole when he got in Pujols’ way while trying to field a sac bunt attempt in the fourth. Overall, though, this was another solid effort, with the highlights being the play turned in by Aaron Miles and David Eckstein in the second to double up speedster Curtis Granderson.
Grade: B

Managing
It’s hard to do much managing when your team only gets one hit in the first seven innings. As always, Tony La Russa did a nice job matching up his bullpen in the late innings. My main critique is with his lineup: What does So Taguchi have to do to earn more playing time? Much like Encarnacion, Preston Wilson had no chance of doing damage off of The Gambler.
Grade: B-

Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitching
Between his great fielding plays and the way he was spotting his fastball on the black, Rogers was the closest thing to a left-handed Greg Maddux you will ever see. Rogers hasn’t allowed a run in 23 postseason innings, yet New Yorkers still aren’t buying into him as a clutch pitcher.
Grade: A+

Bullpen
Todd Jones nearly blew the Series with his implosion in the ninth. Two games now and we have yet to see Joel Zumaya, which leads me to wonder if all is well with the fireballer.
Grade: D

Offense
Craig Monroe’s first-inning home run was the biggest hit of the night, and Carlos Guillen again showed he’s the best hitter on this team, going 3-for-3 with a walk. Overall, however, it wasn’t a strong performance as they failed to deliver the knockout blow to Weaver. Detroit managed only three runs on 10 hits, two walks, two hit batters and an error.
Grade: B-

Defense
Rogers was the star here again as he robbed Wilson and Miles of base hits on comebackers. Rogers also had to work out of a jam in the first inning thanks to third baseman Brandon Inge’s misplay on Scott Rolen’s grounder. Jones’ ninth-inning error almost caused the whole game to unravel for Detroit.
Grade: B

Managing
Jim Leyland needed to leave Rogers in for the ninth inning. He had thrown only 99 pitches and was nearly untouchable. To hand the game over to Jones, who is the nominal closer but is really about the third-best pitcher in the bullpen, nearly put his club in an 0-2 hole.
Grade: C

Game 1 Grades

2006-10-21T23:55:00.000-04:00

The Cardinals shattered the Tigers' dream of a World Series sweep in Game 1.

St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching
Rookie Anthony Reyes struggled this season, but it wasn't for a lack of talent. He's a big-time prospect who has dominated at every level of the minor leagues. He harnessed that talent tonight in shutting down the Tigers. The big adjustment after allowing a run in the first inning was to rely more on his fastball since Detroit was sitting on his change. Now Tony La Russa can feel good about bringing Reyes back for Game 5 and keeping his big three -- Chris Carpenter, Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan -- on regular rest.
Grade: A

Bullpen
Reyes only left the relievers one inning of work, and Braden Looper got through the ninth unscathed.
Grade: A

Offense
Scott Rolen appears to be healthy again, or at least close to it. His second-inning home run tied the score at 1 and took some momentum away from the Tigers. Albert Pujols' two-run homer was the biggest hit of the game, and it came after yet another key hit by Yadier Molina started the rally.
Grade: A

Defense
Rolen's glovework is still shaky, as evidenced by his error in the ninth. Juan Encarnacion bobbled a ball in the first inning but it didn't come back to haunt them. Otherwise, the Cardinals were solid-if-unspectacular in the field.
Grade: C

Managing
La Russa showed he hasn't forgotten how to manage in the AL, where you have to ride a hot pitcher as long as you can, leaving Reyes in all the way into the ninth. This lineup works a lot better with whiffmeister Preston Wilson on the bench instead of the No. 2 slot. I like Chris Duncan in there against righties and hopefully La Russa will use So Taguchi as his No. 2 hitter against Kenny Rogers in Game 2.
Grade: A

Detroit Tigers

Starting pitching
Justin Verlander's curveball was working but he got hurt with his high fastball all night, which wasn't high enough or fast enough to get by the Cardinals. (Speaking of which, was FOX's radar gun busted? They didn't clock a pitch above 90 mph all night, and we know Verlander can hit triple digits.) His lack of experience betrayed him in the pivotal Pujols at-bat in the third inning. Given the edict by his manager to pitch around him, Verlander missed his spot and ended up grooving a fastball to the best hitter in the game. The result: two-run home run.
Grade: C-

Bullpen
The two inherited runners that scored were huge, but you can't blame Jason Grilli for that. Brandon Inge blew the play by throwing wildly to home plate on Encarnacion's grounder to third. Overall, five relievers combined to allow two hits, zero runs.
Grade: A

Offense
Are the hackers back? The Tigers walked only once in this game after showing a newfound dose of plate discipline during the AL playoffs. In fairness, it's got to be tough to hit after a week off. The timing just can't be right.
Grade: C

Defense
See above. Inge's misplays in the sixth inning -- the throwing error and then interfering with baserunner Rolen -- allowed the Cardinals to blow the game open. Just prior to that, Verlander's errant pickoff throw to first put Pujols on third base with nobody out, setting up the three-run inning.
Grade: D

Managing
Allowing Verlander to pitch to Pujols with a base open in the third is the hot topic of second-guessers in this game, but I didn't have that big of a problem with it. Jim Leyland trusted Verlander to pitch carefully to Pujols and the kid just vapor locked. It happens. The move I would question is starting Verlander in Game 1 in the first place. The week off afforded Leyland the luxury of using any of his fearsome foursome and he chose the one with the least experience. I understand he wants Rogers to pitch two games at home by going in Games 2 and 6, but it's the first game and I'd want my best man on the mound regardless of what will happen five days later.
Grade: C

Episode III: Cardinals-Tigers

2006-10-21T15:42:00.000-04:00

Joe "Ducky" Medwick was peppered with debris after a hard slide into Tigers third baseman Merv Owen in Game 7 of the 1934 World Series.

This rubber match is a long time coming. The Cardinals won the first World Series meeting against the Tigers, back in 1934, as Dizzy and Daffy Dean combined for all four St. Louis victories and Ducky Medwick had to be escorted off the field in Game 7 for fear of a riot breaking out at old Tiger Stadium. Detroit waited 34 years for revenge, coming back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the defending champion Cardinals for the 1968 World Series crown.

The Tigers are heavily favored heading into Round 3. Nonetheless, here's hoping that we have another classic on our hands, even if the big-market towns will be too busy playing ostrich to care. There's history and subplots galore with this matchup. And the best part is that I no longer have to schlep from Flushing, Queens to Hoboken, N.J., in the middle of the night.

Before we move on to our staff picks, I have to issue this disclaimer: We here at the SI.com Brand Picks Column™ can in no way gaurantee that all or any of our guesses, er, picks will in fact come true. We are in no way legally responsible for any betting losses you may incur for taking our expert advice. Besides, it's not like the other guys have fared any better.

Tom Verducci

OK, it's been a weird postseason that has reminded us that anything can happen. The Yankees couldn't hit, the Twins couldn't field, Kenny Rogers and Jeff Weaver are clutch October pitchers, the Mets can't keep a .216-hitting catcher with little power in the park, the Mets don't use their $10 million closer in the ninth inning of a tie game at home with the pennant on the line and the Dodgers and Padres -- wait, remind me because I blinked: Was the NL West included in the postseason? So yes, maybe there is a way for the Cardinals to win the World Series. It's just that, like two homers of Yadier Molina in the NLCS, it's difficult to imagine.

St. Louis cannot beat an AL team with an NLCS Game 7 starting outfield (Preston Wilson, Jim Edmonds, Juan Encarnacion) that hit .197 and slugged .344 in the NLCS with seven RBI in seven games. Encarnacion was just awful. In 24 plate appearance he saw a three-ball count only three times and swung at 52 of the 92 pitches he saw -- missing 11 of them and managing just three hits. Think about that efficiency: 52 swings, three hits. Manager Tony La Russa can't continue to allow Wilson (who has no hope against Detroit's hard throwers) and Encarnacion to keep wasting at-bats, especially anywhere near the middle of the order.

The Cardinals, who foolishly chase too many high fastballs, just didn't show enough quality at-bats and tough outs against the Mets to think they can hang with Detroit. And give the Tigers credit: a home-run dependent, free-swinging team during the season has raised its game in the postseason. They've been much more selective on balls out of the zone, with no more better example than leadoff hitter Curtis Granderson, who has improved his walk-to-whiff ratio from 0.38:1 during the regular season to 1.33:1 in the postseason.

There is no too much on the side of the Tigers. They have home-field advantage, they have the deeper starting pitching and, most importantly, they have more quality at-bats than St. Louis. On paper, this should be a four- or five-game series. But I'll give the Cardinals two wins because I'm convinced of their toughness after they bounced back from nearly out-collapsing the '64 Phillies and after they beat the Mets at their own game -- a bullpen game in New York's own backyard -- to get to the World Series. New York's bullpen had lost only one game at home in the previous four months. The layoff effect on Detroit is being overrated. What's more important is the Tigers are a fully confident team with power pitching and tough at-bats up and down the lineup.
Tigers in six.

Jon Heyman

The Tigers have better starting pitching, better relief pitching and a better lineup. Plus, there's no reason to think the National League turns things around now. I'll give the Cardinals one game for La Russa. And I think I'm being generous at that.
Tigers in five.

John Donovan

OK, not that I'm keeping track of my postseason picks or anything -- I mean, who'd want to? -- but ... 1-for-4 in the Division Series and 0-for-2 in the Championship Series? Man, I'm making Scott Rolen look like a clutch player this October. Back at the beginning of the month, a Detroit-St. Louis World Series was about the longest of possible longshots, in anybody's book. But here we are, with the wild-card Tigers -- they looked like absolute dogfood at the end of the regular season -- against the Cardinals, who won only 83 games in 2006. How can you pick between those two? Here's how: Go with the team with the pitching, the home-field advantage, go with the more rested team and the team that, right now, happens to be swinging the bats better. Why believe me? Well, you have to admit: I'm due.
Tigers in six.

Albert Chen

FOX's worst nightmare is here: a massive mismatch between a pair of cities that don't rank in the country's top 10 media markets. MLB badly needs a competitive series, but its not going to get one. Detroit has the made-for-October power pitching to shut down a mediocre lineup. Even if St. Louis were at full strength -- Rolen, Edmonds, and David Eckstein are all badly banged up, and Albert Pujols isn't quite the same with his hamstring injury -- Detroit would have the edge. Look for Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney to shine in the late innings -- and for TV ratings to be even worse than last year's Series, the least watched in history.
Tigers in four.

Jacob Luft

The Cardinals will have to punt on Game 1, but they can put up a fight behind Weaver in Game 2 and then they have Chris Carpenter and Jeff Suppan locked and loaded for Games 3 and 4 at home. Inspired by Admiral Adama getting the colonists off of New Caprica and back to the Rag Tag Fleet, I'm going with St. Louis. I just hope Craig the Cardinals Fan doesn't break the Blogger comments engine by submitting a 5,000-word post afterward.
Cardinals in seven. So say we all.

Alex Belth

I am tempted to say that Detroit will sweep 'em, but I'll give the Cards some credit and figure they've got some magic left in them. Why two games instead of one? Prince Albert, bad hamstring and all, will win a game with a late-inning dinger, and Carpenter will pitch a gem. Otherwise, though the Tigers are group of hackers (albeit ones with more than enough pop), they've got the arms. One thing I would be interested in seeing is Kenny Rogers pitching a pressure game. Jeff Weaver made a believer out of me with his performance in NLCS Game 5. I'd like to see how the rejuvinated Gambler handles a really big spot.
Tigers in six.

Jon Weisman

Oh, if only we lived in a world where you weren't compelled to make predictions. In the end, if you're right, you've only stated what's become obvious to the whole world. If you're wrong, you're there to mock like the kid who showed up to take his SATs in his underwear. The Cardinals lack the hitting and the pitching to defeat the Tigers, and no amount of Jefftacular starts by Weaver and Suppan will dissuade me from that belief. That doesn't mean the Cardinals won't find a way to an upset, just like they did in the NLDS and NLCS. Nonetheless, here are my predictions: Rainn Wilson wins the 2007 Best Supporting Actor Emmy, spinach sales stage a dramatic comeback, and ...
Tigers in six.

Sounds of Silence

2006-10-20T00:31:00.000-04:00

The Mets' season ended with Carlos Beltran's bat still on his shoulder.

NEW YORK -- Caught looking.

Carlos Beltran ends the Mets’ dream season by watching a curveball bend over the outside corner for strike three.

Never mind that Beltran, a certified Cardinals killer, was the man the Mets wanted up at the plate with the bases loaded, two outs and a 3-1 deficit staring at them from that huge Shea Stadium scoreboard in right field. Adam Wainwright, a rookie closer with all of five career saves, regular and postseason, was on the mound trying to close out the biggest game of his life.

So what happens?

Beltran whiffs on three pitches.

Of course he does. Why not? Nothing else in this series has made any sense, either. If anything we should have become used to the unexpected by now.

Yadier Molina batted .348 with six RBIs in the NLCS, including the jaw-dropping, game-winning two-run bomb off of filthy Mets reliever Aaron Heilman in the ninth inning. Anybody who watches NL baseball regularly knows that Molina is one of the worst hitters in the National League. He owns a career .291 on-base percentage and batted .216 this season. He’s the closest thing to an automatic out as there is in the game. I would have predicted him to find a cure for cancer before he ever played the role of a hitting star in a postseason series. But here he is, Mr. Game-Winning Two-Run Homer in Game 7.

But that home run was not even the most surprising thing that happened tonight. That would be the performance of Oliver Perez, who wasn’t expected to last past the third inning tonight yet matched a superb Jeff Suppan nearly pitch for pitch for six innings.

Then there was the catch by Endy Chavez that, had the Mets won, might have been spoken about in the same breadth as Willie Mays’ robbery of Vic Wertz in the 1954 World Series. Chavez’s grab was that good, and that big -- it robbed Scott Rolen of the go-ahead, two-run home run and resulted in a double play. When the ball left Rolen’s bat, myself and 50,000-plus other people here at Shea didn’t think there was any chance Chavez would catch it. With all due respect to Gary Matthews, Jr., this was the catch of the year. (I think Chavez knew it too, since he came out and gave a curtain call between innings.)

Come to think of it, the fact that this series would end with one of the most classic Game 7s of all time is a shocker in itself. Then again, the previous six games also offered no shortage of mystifying events. In Game 6, rookie John Maine outpitched the man who won last year’s Cy Young award and probably will win this year’s Cy Young, Chris Carpenter. Jeff Weaver pitched two outstanding ballgames, including a victory against Hall of Famer Tom Glavine in Game 5. The Cardinals won four games despite getting next-to-nothing from Jim Edmonds, Rolen, Preston Wilson (perhaps the worst No. 2 hitter the postseason has seen in a long time) and Juan Encarnacion. Albert Pujols contributed a grand total of one home run and one RBI.

More than anything, I still can’t get that image of Beltran going down looking out of my head. That will be what I take most from this series. And, yes, I know that I am once again putting the Mets’ failures ahead of the Cardinals’ successes by saying that. I’ve been doing that all series and frankly it’s a hard habit to break. In fact, I’ve picked against the Cardinals at every turn -- the division series and the NLCS. (There’s no way I’m picking them to beat the Tigers in the World Series, either.)

But that’s what I love about baseball –- being wrong. At the end of the day, no matter how much we think we know, the game humbles us and makes us realize that we actually don’t know bleep.

Game 7 picks

2006-10-19T15:17:00.000-04:00

Before this NLCS started, you had a better chance of finding somebody who owns an ESPN phone than an "expert" picking the Cardinals to upset the Mets. Since none of us here at SI.com originally picked St. Louis, we decided to revisit our predictions and give the Cardinals a second look here as Game 7 approaches tonight. (Mobile ESPN pitchman Trey Wingo could not be reached for his pick.)

Tom Verducci

New York manager Willie Randolph will go to his bullpen early and often, and the Cardinals just don't have enough quality at-bats in their lineup to match up against those arms. If the Mets don't let Albert Pujols beat them (and they won't), who will? The better team wins.
Mets 5, Cardinals 3

Jon Heyman

The Mets' starting situation paucity will catch up to them in Game 7. Jeff Suppan isn't Bob Gibson but he's better and more experienced than Oliver Perez, Darren Oliver and Co. Suppan will end the Mets' nice season and send the Cardinals to a World Series. The Mets will do what they can to avoid Pujols, but the other clutch Cardinals -- perhaps Scott Spiezio, David Eckstein or Juan Encarnacion -- will do enough to support Suppan.
Cardinals 7, Mets 5

John Donovan

Game 7s aren't always classics. Both managers will break out the quick hooks on their starters in this one, leaving it up to the bullpens. And that favors the Mets, who have a 2.88 bullpen ERA in the NLCS, even with Billy Wagner messing around.
Mets 7, Cardinals 5

Albert Chen

At last, a winner-take-all game in this drama-starved postseason. Expect some crazy managerial machinations -- the over/under on the number of hurlers that Randolph deploys tonight is six -- but in the end the Cards pitching is more reliable than the Mets'. Adam Wainwright records four outs to send the Redbirds to Motown.
Cardinals 6, Mets 4

Jacob Luft

The Mets lost with a Hall of Famer on the mound in Game 5, and the Cardinals lost with a Cy Young winner in Game 6. And that was after a Game 4 which featured one of the worst pitching matchups in postseason history. That's the kind of series it's been, equal parts unpredictable and unwatchable. I left Shea Stadium last night convinced the Mets will have 10 runs on the board by the fifth inning of Game 7, but I've been wrong about almost everything in this series so far. Against my better judgment, I'm going with the Cardinals to cap off the upset and send FOX executives scrambling for the Pepto.
Cardinals 7, Mets 6

Alex Belth

Suppan isn't a horrible pitcher; the Mets certainly have more question marks tonight as far as their starting pitching goes. But in spite of Jeff Weaver's two solid outings in this series, I am skeptical that Suppan can repeat his Game 3 effort. And I think the Mets can patch together a game with their bullpen. I see the Mets scoring early, padding it in the middle innings, and running away with this one. They won't even need to get to Wagner.
Mets 8, Cardinals 3

Jon Weisman

New York survives a shaky Perez long enough for its bullpen to take over, while solving St. Louis starter Suppan the second time around this series and finishing things off against the Cardinals relievers. But the game is up in the air to the end.
Mets 7, Cardinals 5

Not Easy Being Green

2006-10-18T14:12:00.000-04:00

For want of a nail ... the Mets are having a hard time overcoming Shawn Green's defensive miscues.

It's been a tough series for Shawn Green. He hasn't done much at the plate, producing only one extra-base hit and one RBI in five games. Last night, he failed to come through with a clutch hit with runners on second and third base in a 4-2 game in the eighth inning. In the field, he's been a horror story. In fact, his range in right field has proved so limiting that the only prediction I feel comfortable making about the rest of this topsy-turvy NLCS is that Green will play at least one more ball into a triple. Why not? He's done it in four consecutive games now.

As much as it hurts to single out a fellow member of The Tribe, Green's misadventures in the outfield have been so damaging to the Mets' cause that they deserve a quick recap:

Game 2: Scott Spiezio hits a fly ball that appears to be headed over the fence. In a rare moment of grace, Green times his jump perfectly and looks like he is about to rob Spiezio of a go-ahead three-run home run. Alas, the baseball caromed off of Green's glove and rolled back into play, allowing Spiezio to reach third base and the tying runs to score in the seventh. The play proved to be the turning point of St. Louis' 9-6 victory.

Game 3: Spiezio lofts a blooper down the right-field line with two runners on and two outs in the bottom of the first. Green is slow to arrive and dives instead of playing it on a bounce. The ball hits the turf, bounces up and hits him in the chest before rolling into foul territory. Another triple for Spiezio. Two runs score. Cards up 2-0 and win the game 5-0.

Game 4: Juan Encarnacion rips a ball into the gap in the third inning with a runner on first. Green looks like he has a shot to cut it off but he doesn't get to the ball until it reaches the warning track, and then he fails to pick it up on the first attempt. Result: triple. Tie game. Later, the Mets' offensive outburst would make this a moot point as New York won 12-5.

Game 5: In the bottom of the fifth with the score tied 2-2, Preston Wilson hits a line drive to the right-center field gap. It goes over and to the left of Green and ends up as an RBI double for Wilson. This is a tough one to get on Green's case about, because it would have taken quicker set of feet (Lastings Milledge?) to catch. Still, it was a play that could have been made if not for Green's stunning lack of range. Later in Game 5, Aaron Miles hit a ball down the right-field line that took Green the better part of a fortnight to get back into the infield, extending his streak of consecutive games with a triple allowed.

Sometimes bad defense doesn't matter because opposing lineups fail to capitalize on the mistakes or a team scores enough runs to make up for some miscues with the glove. (See: 2004 Red Sox.) The Mets are not a poor defensive team, but they have had the misfortune of having their two weakest spots exposed in this series: Green and Carlos Delgado, who has yet to make any play of consequence at first base.

I have yet to find an advanced defensive metric that I completely trust (fielding percentage is a useless 19th century relic, in case you didn't know that already). But when many of the different metrics agree on a player being below average, then it's safe to say that he is, in fact, not very good with the glove. Such is the case with Green (see below), whose NLCS showing has been so abysmal that the Mets should seriously consider eating his contract for 2007 (when Green will be 34) and giving the job to Milledge or finding somebody on the open market.

Range Factor (Put-outs plus assists/innings)
Green's 1.77 rating ranks last among right fielders who played at least 700 innings this season. Washington's Austin Kearns was first (2.59).

Zone Rating (percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone")
Green's .848 ranks only ahead of Colorado's Brad Hawpe (.835) among right fielders with at least 700 innings. Juan Encarnacion was the leader at .912.

Defensive Win Shares
Green ranks 50th among NL outfielders at 1.9, just ahead of the barely ambulatory Moises Alou.

Over at BaseballMusings.com, David Pinto has Probabilistic Model of Range charts for Green as recently as 2004, where you can see that he was subpar in right field back then as well.

Update

Green acquitted himself well in Game 6 with a couple of singles, including a key RBI in the fourth inning, and an uneventful night in the field.