Braves-Cubs Division Series Preview
John Smoltz is confident that his elbow will hold up through October, pain and all.
Craig Jones/Getty Images |
| SEASON SERIES STATS |
| |
Braves |
Cubs |
| Wins |
4 |
2 |
| Runs |
46 |
36 |
| HR |
11 |
6 |
| Avg. |
.288 |
.326 |
| ERA |
5.60 |
6.96 |
| SB |
1 |
4 |
| Errors |
6 |
6 |
|
By John Donovan, SI.com
A load of good starting pitching can be a wonderful thing. Nobody knows that better than the Braves. Yet a good rotation doesn't guarantee anything in October.
Nobody knows that better than the Braves, either.
The Braves, in the postseason for the 12th straight time, pulled a 180 this year, going from pitching strong to hitting terrors while coasting to another National League East title. Atlanta has the best hitting team in the league, and the Braves have smacked more homers and scored more runs than anyone, too. They also strike out less than anyone in the NL.
In this division series they'll run into Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Clement and the rest of the Cubs, the NL Central champs. Pitching, and almost pitching alone, has delivered Cubs fans into their first postseason since 1998.
These aren't completely one-dimensional teams. The Braves have Russ Ortiz, the league's only 20-game winner. Greg Maddux has had a fine September. Mike Hampton has resurrected his career after falling off the edge in Coors. John Smoltz, if healthy, will be the best closer in the postseason.
But the Braves' hitting is what will carry them, if they're to be carried at all. Just as the Cubs' pitching will carry them, even though Sammy Sosa, Moises Alou and Aramis Ramirez are no slouches.
There are always the peripheral storylines. Dusty Baker quieted a lot of critics last season when he took the Giants to within a few outs of a World Series win. Now he's delivered the Cubs into the playoffs in his first try.
But the Cubs have not won a postseason series since they won the Series in 1908. Since 1945, when they won their last National League pennant (but lost to the Tigers in the World Series), they have won exactly four postseason games.
The Braves, of course, have their own postseason woes. They have only the one World Series title (1995) to show for their lengthy string of appearances in the postseason.
The downward postseason trend at least will start to change for one of these teams in this series.
The question is whether it'll be pitching or hitting that does it.
|
|
OFFENSE
|
Braves
This is the best lineup the Braves have had in this admirable run. It starts with Rafael Furcal (.293, 130 runs) and Marcus Giles (.317, 49 doubles), goes through Gary Sheffield (.331, a combined on-base/slugging percentage over 1.000), then comes Chipper Jones (.303, 106 RBIs) and Andruw Jones (36 homers, 116 RBIs) -- and then you get Javy Lopez (.330, 43 homers). You can strike out the Braves -- Andruw is susceptible, especially -- but they only need a couple of bad pitches a game to crank a homer (they had 235 in 161 games) and get the lead.
|
Cubs
It all starts with Sosa, who has had a huge year (40 homers, 103 RBIs) despite injuries and suspension. But Ramirez has come alive in Chicago (15 homers in 62 games since coming over from Pittsburgh), and Alou (22 homers, 91 RBIs) is always dangerous. Don't discount Lofton, who is hitting .327 since his arrival from the Pirates. And Mark Grudzielanek (.315, with a team-high 38 doubles)? Sosa has hit only .182 in three career postseason games. They probably can't hang with the Braves in a slugfest (the Cubs are 13th in on-base percentage). Their hopes are these won't be slugfests.
|
| The Edge: |
 |
|
DEFENSE
|
Braves
Any outfield with Andruw Jones can't be bad. And Sheffield's arm in right has to be respected. Giles has improved his range remarkably at second base. Furcal, though he'll boot one at short once in a while, has a huge arm. True, Lopez is not a great catcher, but he's fine. The Braves won't beat themselves here.
|
Cubs
Ramirez was brutal at third with the Pirates. He's been a little better, but his 32 total errors are the worst in baseball. Lofton's arm is weak in center, and he's lost a step, but he plays it smart out there. Catcher Damian Miller is solid, with a pretty good arm, and he handles the staff wonderfully. Eric Karros and Randall Simon give Baker a righty-lefty platoon at first.
|
| The Edge: |
|
|
STARTING PITCHING
|
Braves
Ortiz (21-7, 3.81 ERA) is the league's only 20-game winner. He may not be a strikeout guy, but he's 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA in three division series starts. Maddux (15-11, 3.99) has been hot and cold, and he's just 6-11 in the postseason. But he's Maddux. He can always beat you. Hampton (14-8, 3.84) has been here. He was in the World Series with the 2000 Mets. They're not the Braves of old, but they can keep this team in games until the offense clicks.
|
Cubs
Each one of the big four have pitched more than 200 innings this season, and that could lead to some fatigue. If the Cubs lose, you know people will wonder. Wood (14-11, 3.20 overall) has been strangely inconsistent in the second half (5-5, 3.21), but he's always a danger. Zambrano (13-11, 3.11) has had a rough last couple of outings (1-2 in five September starts, with a 4.41 ERA). At just 23 years old, Prior (18-6, 2.43) is simply amazing.
|
| The Edge: |
 |
|
BULLPEN
|
Braves
The trick for the Braves is getting to closer Smoltz and his 45 saves. Ray King has been one of the main innings-eaters out of the pen, along with rookie Trey Hodges, but neither is particularly effective. Darren Holmes is probably out for October. That leaves a lot on guys like Kent Mercker. It's not pretty.
|
Cubs
Their closer is Joe Borowski (33 saves). Former Braves reliever Mike Remlinger is his lefty setup. Dave Veres is a right-handed setup man, and the Cubs also have righties Antonio Alfonseco and Kyle Farnsworth out there. ERA-wise, both the Braves and the Cubs have similar pens. But if it's Borowski or Smoltz at the end, we'll take Smoltz. As long as the elbow's OK.
|
| The Edge: |
|
|
INTANGIBLES
|
Braves
Experience? The Braves have it. That'll help them, especially in the games in Wrigley Field. Atlanta won't have much of a home-field advantage -- no sellouts yet in Atlanta -- but, again, the Braves are used to that. As for the manager, you can nitpick Bobby Cox's decisions. But, come on, he knows what he's doing.
|
Cubs
It'll be up to Baker to keep his team under control under the pressures of the postseason. There may not be a better manager for the job. If they can get past the games in Atlanta, the Wrigley crowd will help tremendously. The two teams' benches are, essentially, equal.
|
| The Edge: |
|
| RECAP |
| Offense |
 |
| Defense |
|
| Starting Pitching |
 |
| Bullpen |
|
| Intangibles |
|
|
| PREDICTION |
The Braves have the second-best on-base percentage in the NL. Barring a collapse, they will score some runs. They've even shown that they can hit Prior, knocking him around for six runs in 4 2/3 innings in an Atlanta win on July 11. The question is whether a so-so Cubs hitting attack can stay with the Braves against a so-so Atlanta rotation. And the thinking here is that, no-no, they can't. Braves in four.
|
|
|
|
|
