Giants-Marlins Division Series Preview
In 20 games against Florida over the past three seasons, Barry Bonds has a .388 average with 10 home runs and 22 RBIs.
Craig Jones/Getty Images |
| SEASON SERIES STATS |
| |
Giants |
Marlins |
| Wins |
5 |
1 |
| Runs |
23 |
19 |
| HR |
4 |
5 |
| Avg. |
.275 |
.240 |
| ERA |
2.83 |
3.81 |
| SB |
2 |
4 |
| Errors |
2 |
2 |
|
By John Donovan, SI.com
Two wise old baseball managers, new to their teams, both making their first trips to the postseason. One is in charge of a hugely surprising wild-card team. The other inherited a team that was just a few outs away from a World Series win a year ago.
If you're into feel-good stories about paying your dues and finally reaching the Promised Land, this is the Division Series for you.
Felipe Alou, after years of struggles with the under-funded, under appreciated Expos, is taking Barry Bonds and the National League West champion Giants back to the playoffs. There they'll run into the Marlins, who found new life with an early-season change to 72-year-old skipper Jack McKeon and stormed through the second half to win the NL wild card.
The Giants could have crumbled after last year's trip to the Series, when manager Dusty Baker left and several other key players bolted for greener pastures. But Alou provided the steadying hand, and general manager Brian Sabean gave him the talent he needed and the Giants ran away with the NL West.
The Marlins were drowning under Jeff Torborg in May when they called McKeon out of retirement. He took a young pitching staff and a good young lineup and made them believe, and GM Larry Beinfest pulled off a couple of midseason moves that pushed Florida past Philadelphia in the wild-card race.
There are still a few Giants around who remember the heartbreak of losing to the Angels in the Series last season. Tops among them is Bonds, who has had another fantastic year despite the death of his father and another year full of walks. The Giants go as Bonds go.
On the other hand, the Marlins haven't been to the postseason since they won the 1997 World Series as a wild card.
The Giants will be favorite in this in a lot of people's eyes for a couple of reasons. First, they just missed last year. Second ... and third and fourth and keep going ... is Bonds. He changes the whole series.
But the Marlins can't be dismissed that easily. They have live arms, they don't give up a lot of home runs and, maybe more than anything else, they believe.
They're the feel-good story of the playoffs. We'll see if everyone feels that way about the Marlins after they run up against Mr. Bonds.
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OFFENSE
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Giants
The Giants are a mediocre offensive team, on the whole, even with Bonds. Nobody other than Bonds has more than 20 homers. Other than Bonds (.341), the only regular anywhere near .300 is center fielder Marquis Grissom. They have guys who can hit -- Rich Aurilia, Jose Cruz Jr., Ray Durham -- but they can be handled, if Bonds is handled. How to do that? The trick is to walk him, if at all possible. If it's not possible ... well, that's where it really gets tricky. Without Bonds, the Marlins have a better offense. Bonds is the difference maker.
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Marlins
The top of this order is dangerous. Leadoff man Juan Pierre (.305, .361 on-base percentage) sparks this team, then the Marlins follow with Luis Castillo (.314, .381 on-base), catcher Pudge Rodriguez (.297, 16 homers, 85 RBIs) and big first baseman Derrek Lee (31 homers, 92 RBIs). Right fielder Juan Encarnacion has 94 RBIs, and left fielder Jeff Conine practically wrecked the Phils by himself (three homers, 10 RBIs in the last six games). At .266, they had the fifth-best offense in the league. And Mike Lowell, out for most of the second half with a broken hand, is ready to play.
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| The Edge: |
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DEFENSE
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Giants
They're not exactly spry youngsters. Grissom is a little iffy in center, and Bonds doesn't cover near the ground he used to. Aurilia has limited range. With the exception of J.T. Snow, when he's in at first, this is just a mediocre defensive team. Expect the Marlins to run on Santiago, too.
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Marlins
Lee can pick it at first, and Castillo is among the best in the league at second. Pierre can cover a lot of ground in center, and Conine ... yeah, he burned the Phillies with his glove, too. Nobody's going to mistake the Marlins for a bunch of Gold Glovers. But they're solid enough.
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| The Edge: |
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STARTING PITCHING
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Giants
Bonds makes this offense run, but it's the pitching that has put the Giants into the playoffs. Throw Jason Schmidt (17-5, 2.34 ERA) in as a Cy Young contender.. Sidney Ponson, acquired from the Orioles in thedeadline-day deal, is 3-6 with a 3.71 ERA in San Francisco, but he's done the proverbial "pitching better than that." The Giants (second in the league with a 3.73 ERA) also have won the last five starts for Kirk Rueter. They can pitch.
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Marlins
Rookie lefty Dontrelle Willis (14-6, 3.30 ERA) energized this staff, but the Marlins have to be concerned about his second half (4-5, 4.91 ERA). Josh Beckett (6-4, 2.55 ERA in the second half) and Brad Penny (6-4, 3.50 ERA after the break) have been solid, and McKeon can also choose from Carl Pavano and Mark Redman. A good, young, deep staff, although depth in the first round is kind of wasted.
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| The Edge: |
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BULLPEN
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Giants
Tim Worrell has 37 saves and has made people forget about Robb Nen not being around. The real workhorse is righty Joe Nathan (12-4, 2.96 ERA), who has 83 strikeouts in 79 innings. Expect to see a lot of Jim Brower, too, and Felix Rodriguez. Scott Eyre is the lefty out of the pen. Worrell has seven blown saves, so he can be had. But if the Marlins are seeing him, it's not a good thing.
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Marlins
Ugueth Urbina has bumped Braden Looper out as closer, and that's good for the Marlins. When Urbina's on, he's better than most. With Looper now in a set-up role, McKeon has another option to get to Urbina, and that's good, too, considering the rest of the pen is kind of mix and match. The pen is middle-of-the-pack in terms of ERA. Like many teams, getting to the closer is the tricky part.
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| The Edge: |
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INTANGIBLES
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Giants
Alou is not afraid to go to his bench. He loves Neifi Perez and Andres Galarraga, and has used them both beautifully. Alou's confidence in all of his players has endeared him to the club, and they'll play hard for him. Experience doesn't hurt, either.
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Marlins
If Lowell comes back strong, he adds a huge dimension to this team, giving the Marlins some much-needed pop. Even if he can't play full time, he should be dangerous off the bench. McKeon has this team believing, and that can be dangerous at this time of year.
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| The Edge: |
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| RECAP |
| Offense |
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| Defense |
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| Starting Pitching |
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| Bullpen |
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| Intangibles |
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| PREDICTION |
The Marlins are one of the more balanced playoff teams, with good pitching (ranked eighth in the NL) and a decent offense (fifth). The problem is, you just never know about a team with Bonds. He changes a game so much, just by his presence. He showed last year he could play in the postseason (three homers in the division series in 2002). This year, he has some business to finish, too. Giants in five.
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