A's-Red Sox Division Series Preview
Only GM Theo Epstien knew David Ortiz would compile a .995 OPS after the All-Star break.
AP |
| SEASON SERIES STATS |
| |
A's |
Red Sox |
| Wins |
4 |
3 |
| Runs |
30 |
36 |
| HR |
7 |
6 |
| Avg. |
.224 |
.266 |
| ERA |
4.86 |
4.21 |
| SB |
3 |
3 |
| Errors |
2 |
4 |
|
By John Donovan, SI.com
Get ready for all the peripheral stuff. The subplots. The stories behind
the stories. The off-the-field nonsense.
You know. The master vs. pupil angle. The genius vs. the boy genius.
Computer vs. computer. Our printouts vs. your printouts.
Arrrghhhhh! They're holding a Sabermetrics convention and a Division
Series is breaking out!
The American League West champion A's and the wild-card Red Sox meet in
a showdown tailor-made for baseball geeks. They are two
forward-thinking teams under the forward-thinking ways of their
respective general managers, Oakland's Billy Beane (aka "the master") and
young Theo Epstein of Boston.
Beane and Epstein have challenged baseball protocol with their methods
of evaluating talent and building their teams, relying on ... let's say,
some of the more esoteric statistics and tendencies favored by
stats-heads known as Sabermatricians (after the Society for American
Baseball Research). But Epstein and Beane -- who reportedly turned down the
Boston job last winter and suggested Epstein for it -- have vastly
different teams.
The A's are doing things on a shoestring budget, while the Red Sox have
the second-biggest payroll in the bigs, behind only the Yankees. The A's
are winning with pitching, pitching and more pitching. They have some of
the best starters in the game. The Red Sox, back in the postseason for
the first time in four years, are winning with hitting, hitting and more
hitting.
The A's are first in the AL in pitching, with a 3.60 ERA. The Red Sox
are the best hitting team in the AL, with a .289 average.
The two franchises have some postseason history, too. The A's swept the
Red Sox out of the AL Championship series in both 1988 and '90, though
they lost the World Series both times. In '75, it was the Red Sox who
swept the A's, though the Red Sox lost to the Reds in that Series.
All those statistics and history aside, this one seemingly comes down to
the big bats of Boston vs. Oakland's arms. For sure, Boston can pitch, too.
The Red Sox have Pedro Martinez, after all. And Oakland's reigning AL
MVP Miguel Tejada, along with Eric Chavez, can drive in some runs.
But few teams can bash with Boston, and few can hang with Oakland's
arms. Something has to give.
Let's go to the computer to see exactly what gives:
|
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OFFENSE
|
Red Sox
What a machine. Manny Ramirez (a combined on-base/slugging percentage
over 1.000), batting champ Bill Mueller, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason
Varitek ... these guys just keep coming. The Red Sox are second in
walks, second in homers and first in on-base percentage. It's almost
impossible to pitch around them. And don't forget DH David Ortiz (31
homers, 101 RBIs), a difference-maker in this lineup.
|
A's
Tejada (27 homers, 106 RBIs) has carried this team in the second
half (.326, 12 homers, 50 RBIs), along with third baseman Chavez
(.313, 12, 51). From there, though, the dropoff is steep. Catcher Ramon
Hernandez will chip in, as will DH Erubiel Durazo. After that, though
... let's just say the A's are no Red Sox in the hitting department.
|
| The Edge: |
 |
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DEFENSE
|
Red Sox
There's no threat in the arms of Johnny Damon or Trot Nixon. Ramirez can
throw a runner out once in a while. Garciaparra is a couple notches
below Alex Rodriguez, but he's fine at short. Varitek tied for the AL
lead in errors and he throws out only 27 percent of basestealers. All in
all, the Red Sox are OK in the field, but they won't win many games
there.
|
A's
Overall, Oakland ranks better than the Red Sox in the field, but Eric
Chavez is the only Gold Glover out there. Tejada is fine at short.
Hernandez is middle-of-the-pack in throwing out runners. Oakland may
have a bit of a disadvantage in playing the quirks of Fenway in the
middle games. Otherwise, these two teams are both just OK defensively.
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| The Edge: |
 |
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STARTING PITCHING
|
Red Sox
If not for a shaky bullpen, you could put at least a couple more wins
down for Boston ace Pedro Martinez (14-4, 2.22 ERA). Still, he's the
most feared No. 1 in this postseason (206 strikeouts in 186 2/3
innings). Derek Lowe (17-7, 4.47) has benefited from Boston's big
hitters. After that, it's Tim Wakefield and John Burkett, both of whom
have ERAs over 4.00 (or 5.00, in Burkett's case).
|
A's
Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Ted Lilly are the top three in Oakland. Zito
has been a little inconsistent, but it's more because of his lousy run
support than his ERA (which is 3.30). Lilly has made up for the loss of
Mark Mulder by going 7-0 with a 3.00 ERA in the second half. Rookie Rich
Harden has been good, too, though he slipped after a spectaculatr first month.
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| The Edge: |
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BULLPEN
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Red Sox
The Red Sox have a closer in Byung-Hyun Kim (16 saves), but to say
anything else out there in the pen is settled would be an overstatement.
Guys that were supposed to help, like righty Scott Williamson and lefty
Scott Sauerbeck, have been ineffective. That has forced the Sox to
scramble all year long. They're still scrambling.
|
A's
Keith Foulke is solid as the A's closer (43 saves). Righty Chad Bradford
has been stellar (3.04 ERA) and a workhorse (76 innings). Former starter
John Halama has been effective in limited use. All in all, Ken Macha
seems to be a little more settled in his pen than Grady Little is in
his.
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| The Edge: |
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INTANGIBLES
|
Red Sox
Oh, the expectations of Red Sox nation. They will be felt. There are
also questions about Martinez's stamina (in case they need him on short
rest), about how Little will handle things in the pen, about how Ramirez
will react to all the hoopla. You never know with the Red Sox. That's
the beauty of them.
|
A's
The A's have had a great run in the past four years, but they have yet
to make it out of the Division Series, losing last season to the Twins
and the two seasons before that to the Yankees. Though there's a heavy
turnover in Oakland, you can bet everyone on the team feels those past
failures haunting them.
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| The Edge: |
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| RECAP |
| Offense |
 |
| Defense |
 |
| Starting Pitching |
|
| Bullpen |
|
| Intangibles |
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| PREDICTION |
Good pitching trumps all, and that means Zito and Hudson. Lilly may be
the key, though (wins in the last six games he started). The Sox have
Martinez, but after him, the Sox are definitely trumpable. So, as long
as Tejada and Chavez don't go completely cold -- and they haven't this
half-the A's should have just enough hitting (and plenty of pitching) to
stop the Boston bats. A's in five.
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