New-look Nuggets should be much improved

By John Hollinger, SI.com

Nuggets at a Glance Head coach: Jeff Bzdelik 2002-03: 17-65 2002-03 Stats Key Additions SF Carmelo Anthony (draft) PG Andre Miller (Clippers) PG Earl Boykins (Warriors) SG Jon Barry (Pistons) SG Voshon Lenard (Raptors) C Francisco Elson (Spain) Key Losses PF Juwan Howard (Magic) PF Donnell Harvey (free agent) PG Shammond Williams (free agent) Projected Lineup Starters Reserves PG  A. Miller E. Boykins SG  J. Barry V. Lenard SF  C. Anthony R. White PF  M. Camby N. Tskitishvili C  Nene F. Elson

Considering that last year's Nuggets were probably the worst offensive team in history, and that the only credible scorer from that team left as a free agent, you might think that they would be looking at being one of the worst teams of all-time.

But thanks to some offseason acquisitions, the Nuggets might not be that bad. First and foremost is first-round draft choice Carmelo Anthony, a natural scorer who led Syracuse to the NCAA title a year ago and figures to spike the offense with an easy 20 points a game.

Second is the massively upgraded backcourt. Last year the Nuggets started undrafted rookie Lorinza Harrington and second-round draft pick Vincent Yarbrough for much of the season. Both were woefully unprepared for the assignment, particularly on offense, and together they formed the worst backcourt since Bill Murray and Daffy Duck in Space Jam.

But in the offseason, the Nuggets made a splash in the free-agent market, adding point guard Andre Miller from the Clippers and shooting guard Jon Barry from the Pistons to immediately form a competent backcourt. The addition of Earl Boykins to back up Miller should energize a second unit that last year had trouble even locating the basket, let alone putting the ball in it.

Up front, the Nuggets lost Juwan Howard, who was their only reliable offensive weapon last season. But they can look forward to another year of improvement from The Artist Formerly Known As Nene Hilario, who changed his name to just Nene after a promising rookie season at center. In addition, oft-injured center Marcus Camby played just 29 games last year; while expecting 82 from him is unrealistic, he could play twice as many games this season, and he is still one of the best rebounders and shot-blockers in basketball.

Defense. The reason the Nuggets managed to win 17 games despite an offense that couldn't score at a swinger's convention is their commitment to playing outstanding defense. No-name coach Jeff Bzdelik got his cast of no-name players to hold opponents to 92.4 points per game (eighth in the league) by scrapping and trapping -- they forced more turnovers than any team except Philadelphia.

The key was the frontcourt. While most bad teams have awful big men, the 2002-03 Nuggets were an odd bird. In Camby, Howard, Nene and Chris Andersen, they had a reliable foursome of big men who could bang in the post, block shots and crash the boards. That allowed the perimeter players to gamble and helped compensate for their awful backcourt.

The challenge for the Nuggets will be for this year's newcomers to match last year's enthusiasm. The addition of Anthony, Miller, Boykins, Barry and Voshon Lenard will vastly improve what was a pathetic situation on the perimeter, but none of the four is known for his defense. As a result, Bzdelik will have to ensure that the defense doesn't take a step back to offset the near-certain offensive improvement.

The Bench. Denver's likely starting five of Miller, Barry, Anthony, Camby and Hilario is rock solid. The problem is what happens when one of them leaves the game. The Nuggets project to have just one reliable bench player -- the 5-foot-5 Boykins, who comes off a career year in Golden State and will be asked to carry the second unit. As for the rest, trouble looms. Rodney White and Nikoloz Tskitishvili both looked woefully unprepared last year, backup center Francisco Elson was a non-scorer even in Europe, and Ryan Bowen is known more for floorburns than point production.

One way the Nuggets could improve their bench production would be to bring Barry off the pine. As the leader of the Pistons' "Alternatorz," his shooting, passing and general enthusiasm was one of the keys to arguably the league's best bench, and he seems naturally suited for the role. The problem is that nobody is qualified to start ahead of him. Lenard is the best alternative, but he's not the automatic shooter that Barry is and lacks his passing flair.

The Nuggets also have to be very worried about the frontcourt depth, particuarly if they can't re-sign Andersen, who is still a free agent at this writing. In addition to the offensively challenged Elson, they're counting on an undersized Bowen and an allegedly bulked-up Tskitishvili to help out at the forward spots -- a duo that combined for more fouls than field goals last year. White is also a candidate, but he shot just 40.8 percent last year and a lowly 24 percent on 3-pointers, and when he's not missing shots he's destroying the offense with turnovers (he averaged one every 10 minutes). And remember, at least one of these guys likely will be pressed into service as a starter, as Camby is virtually guaranteed to get injured.

Will they ever get it turned around? The Nuggets have been bad for ages and will be again this year. They've won one playoff series in the past 15 years and haven't been to the postseason since 1995, while enduring three 60-loss seasons (a fourth was prevented only by the lockout in 1998-99).

They hoped to change things this offseason by waving around more free-agent money than anyone else but came away with a surprisingly modest haul. Superstars like Jason Kidd, Tim Duncan and Jermaine O'Neal wouldn't even give the Nuggets the time of the day, leaving them with Miller, Barry and Boykins -- not exactly the difference-makers Denver needs to turn the team around.

The Nuggets will get another chance next summer because they still have plenty of cap space left, but in an NBA where attractive free agents want to go to winning teams, Denver is caught in a familiar Catch-22. After nearly a decade of losing, third-year general manager Kiki Vandeweghe has to figure out a way to extricate the team from this situation.

Getting better. The upgrade to the backcourt means the Nuggets won't be anywhere near as bad as they were a year ago, especially in the unlikely event that Camby stays healthy all year. While expecting a playoff appearance would be wildly optimistic, a 30+-win season is realistic. The Nuggets are still at least a year away from getting things turned around, but some light is appearing at the end of the tunnel. 

John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.