Heat's on Odom

Free agent will need to deliver for Miami to break losing cycle

Heat at a Glance Head coach: Pat Riley 2002-03: 25-57 2002-03 Stats Key Additions PG Dwyane Wade (draft) SF Lamar Odom (Clippers) C Samaki Walker (Lakers) PF Loren Woods (T'wolves) PG Rafer Alston (Raptors) Key Losses C Alonzo Mourning (Nets) PG Travis Best (Mavericks) PG Mike James (Celtics) PG Anthony Carter (Spurs) SG Eddie House (Clippers) C Vladimir Stepania (free agent) Projected Lineup Starters Reserves PG  D. Wade R. Alston SG  E. Jones R. Butler SF  C. Butler S. Lampley PF  L. Odom M. Allen C  B. Grant S. Walker

The Heat entered the summer in a state of despair after an uninspired 25-win season, one in which they played depressingly low-scoring games in front of largely empty crowds. Thanks to unexpected gift, however, the Heat can be a little more optimistic about the coming season.

Miami looked to have little salary-cap space to improve the team, until Anthony Carter mistakenly failed to exercise the option on his contract, giving the Heat a $4 million windfall that they used to sign forward Lamar Odom. The Heat almost certainly overpaid for Odom, giving a $65 million deal to a player that has missed more than half his team's games the past two seasons due to injuries and suspensions. But their situation was desperate enough to roll the dice on one of the summer's last remaining major free agents, and Odom has the talent to earn his salary if he can stay healthy and clean up his act.

Odom will join Dwyane Wade in a rebuilt starting five that also includes one of last year's top rookies, Caron Butler. The facelift didn't stop there. Miami let all three of last year's point guards walk (Carter, Mike James and Travis Best) and brought in two new ones to replace them (Wade and dribbling whiz Rafer Alston). The Heat also lost several members of their frontcourt -- most notably franchise icon Alonzo Mourning, who left as a free agent, but also LaPhonso Ellis and Vladimir Stepania. As a result, Pat Riley will have to use his considerable coaching skill to mask a major size deficit.

Quickness. If the Heat can do one thing, it's get to the basket. Despite lacking a true point guard, they may have more overall quickness than any team in the league. Rookie Wade, who will be shoehorned into the point guard spot, has a dynamite first step, and gets to the basket with ease. Eddie Jones is one of the quickest off guards in the league, and his backup Rasual Butler is another natural slasher. Caron Butler's game is built on getting to the basket, and he figures to be more assertive in his sophomore season. Additionally, Odom gives the Heat a new look, because he'll be able to destroy opposing power forwards off the dribble and use his passing skills to locate teammates cutting to the rim.

The one exception in the lineup is Brian Grant, who prefers to spot up for 15-foot jumpers rather than put the ball on the floor, but his ability to pull centers a few feet away from the basket should help his teammates on their forays to the hoop.

Size. It says something about the Heat's plight that I was actually debating several possible answers to this question (shooting, depth, point guard, etc.). But size is clearly the biggest problem. The Heat weren't a big team last year, but they are going to be positively Lilliputian this year. Throughout his career, Riley has used some of the biggest lineups in the league (most notably, Charles Smith, Charles Oakley and Patrick Ewing in New York), but now he's come full circle. 

At 6-foot-9, Grant isn't even big for a power forward, but he's starting at center. Backup Walker is another converted power forward forced into the middle by the Heat's lack of other options. With those two conscripted into service as centers, it leaves another opening at power forward. Despite being a natural small forward, Odom has to be the starter if Riley is going to get his best lineup on the court. The only other options are Loren Woods, who is 7 feet tall but about 7 inches wide, or Malik Allen, who has the requisite size but was pretty much scraped from the bottom of the NBA's talent barrel.

Miami's lack of muscle shows itself in numerous ways. First, the Heat were below average on the boards a year ago; they will be much worse with the loss of Stepania, who on a per-minute basis was the second-best rebounder in the league. Second, the Heat had an inability to generate post offense that resulted in the second-fewest free throw attempts in the league; only the Knicks shot fewer. Finally, their so-called center, Grant, was second in the NBA with 300 fouls and barely averaged 30 minutes a night because he was in such constant foul trouble.

Has Riley finally changed his stripes? As a coach, Riley is still virtually without peer in the NBA. Unfortunately, he's also in charge of the Heat's front office, and that's where the problem starts. Riley continually has tried to build for the present rather than the future, despite the very obvious fact that the Heat's roster needed to be nuked about three years ago when Mourning was diagnosed with a career-altering kidney ailment.

Since then, he has been hell bent on importing veteran mediocrities to try to scratch and claw his team into the playoffs, and the results have been disastrous. Overpaying for Grant and Jones has left his team with virtually no salary-cap room, especially when he supplemented that strategy by seemingly targeting the oldest players available to fill in the rest of the roster. Because almost all of these players have been on one-year contracts, the Heat have also had to rebuild half their roster each of the past three seasons. Worst of all, Riley's focus on the present has blinded him to players who could have significantly altered his future, most poignantly when he traded Ricky Davis to Cleveland for Chris Gatling.

The one hope this past offseason represents is the possibility that he's changed his stripes. Instead of a 35-year-old retread, he opted for the younger Alston as his backup point guard. Ellis, Best and Carter were allowed to take a hike while in the last two years they've brought in the two Butlers, Wade, Sean Lampley, Allen and now Odom. The Heat still are hemmed in by the contracts of Grant and Jones, but it's a positive start.

Maybe next year. If Odom delivers on his promise and can play passable defense at power forward, the Heat will be good enough to stay in the playoff chase for most of the season. But there's no way they're good enough to actually finish in the top eight. They have zero ability to withstand an injury and have a copious lack of size, and not even Riley's masterful motivation techniques can overcome those shortcomings.

John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.