Cavs look to LeBron as franchise savior

By John Hollinger, SI.com

Cavaliers at a Glance Head coach: Paul Silas 2002-03: 17-65 2002-03 Stats Key Additions G/F LeBron James (draft) PG Kevin Ollie (Sonics) SF Ira Newble (Hawks) PG J.R. Bremer (Celtics) Key Losses SF Jumaine Jones (Celtics) PG Milt Palacio (Raptors) Projected Lineup Starters Reserves PG  L. James K. Ollie SG  R. Davis D. Wagner SF  D. Miles I. Newble PF  C. Boozer C. Mihm C  Z. Ilgauskas D. Diop

Can a single, grand stroke of good fortune undo several years of incompetence?

That's the hope of basketball fans on the banks of Lake Erie, where the memory of an abysmal 17-65 season was wiped away in one fell swoop by winning the draft lottery.

Their prize, of course, is multitalented high school phenom LeBron James. James may be the most overexposed teenage athlete since Anna Kournikova, with his high school games telecast nationally and his mug having already appeared on several magazine covers. That doesn't change the fact that he's still an 18-year-old kid who is about to experience a quantum leap in the quality of competition he faces.

While few seriously doubt that James is a superstar in the making, the ridiculously high expectations may work against him while he's learning the game. Realistically, if he can score in the high teens and throw in five or so rebounds and assists a night, it will be a spectacular accomplishment. Anything beyond that would be totally unprecedented. But Cavs fans will have to restrain themselves from expecting him to be Magic Johnson from Day 1.

And then there's the fact that this is still the Cavaliers. Cleveland squandered its free-agent money on two middling backups (Kevin Ollie and Ira Newble), and the Cavs' track record of pathetic drafts has left them with a diminished talent base despite several years of picking in the lottery.

One undeniably good move, however, was the hiring of Paul Silas. Last year's team was probably the least disciplined and worst organized unit in the league, and Silas will take care of that problem in a hurry. Cleveland's young players also should respond well to his teaching, if his track record as coach of the Hornets is any indication, and the hope is that he can squeeze more out of disappointing but talented players like Darius Miles and Dajuan Wagner.

Rebounding. The Cavaliers are one of the league's most athletic teams, and they're taller than the league average at every position except power forward. As a result, last year they rebounded 51.7 percent of missed shots in their games, which was the fourth best mark in the league.

They should be even better this year. Carlos Boozer, an outstanding rebounder whom the Cavs stole in the second round of the 2002 Draft (even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while), took over the starting power forward spot in the second half of the season and will be there for a full season this time around. Miles also should provide much more oomph on the glass now that he appears to be over the knee problems that plagued him all of last season. James will be one of the best rebounding guards in the league, and 7-foot-3 Zydrunas Ilguaskas more than holds his own as well.

Outside Shooting. The Cavs will need to be good rebounders, unfortunately, because nobody can shoot. Only four Cavs made more than 10 3-pointers last year, and two of them are gone -- including Jumaine Jones, who led the team by a mile with 111. Nobody of similar caliber was brought in to replace him. The offseason pickups were defensive specialists with the exception of J.R. Bremer, who may not play much. Wagner and Miles are well-regarded talents who have been held back by an inability to convert jump shots, and Ricky Davis, their best backcourt scorer, is a slasher who is average at best from the perimeter. And while James provides a dynamic offensive weapon, his Achilles' heel is -- you guessed it -- outside shooting.

It doubly hurts the Cavs because they have an All-Star center in Ilgauskas, who is so big he can shoot over opposing centers in the post and thus requires opponents to double-team him. If the Cavs could make opponents pay from downtown, not only would it add to their offense directly but also have the knock-on effect of giving Z more room to operate on the block. (On a side note, this discussion also presumes the Cavs can figure out how to throw an entry pass, a skill they obviously spent very little time practicing in 2002-03.)

How long is LeBron's road to stardom? Ilgauskas may be the Cavs' best player this year, but any discussion of the Cavaliers begins and ends with LeBron James. He has as much upside as any player who has ever entered the league. Unlike most players who arrive in the NBA at a young age, he's already plenty strong enough to take the pounding, and his passing skills are far beyond his years.

But there's no guarantee that those physical skills will translate into immediate success. James showed during his brief summer league stint that he still has plenty to learn about NBA defense, and teams will lay off him until he proves he can knock down jumpers consistently. Fortunately, James' physical skills alone can make him a quality starter, and he'll be relying on them to get him through the year while he adjusts to the competition and complexity of the NBA. 

But the bigger question is how long it will take him to become a transcendent, perennial MVP-candidate type of player. As much as the Cavs may want James to take the league by storm, they have to realize it could be three years or more before he can carry a team on his back and be patient enough not to rush it.

Welcome to the NBA. The Cavs are about to become respectable. Between adding a credible coach, throwing James into the lineup and expected improvement from Miles, Wagner and Boozer, Cleveland could find itself in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. If everything breaks right, the Cavs could even make the postseason, but Ilgauskas' questionable health and a lack of quality depth in the frontcourt (DeSagana Diop's next good game will be his first) likely will send them back to the lottery. However, they'll be improved enough that the few brave souls who paid money to enter Gund Arena a year ago will barely recognize the product on the court. If they can get a ticket, that is.

John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.