Roll of the Dyess

Knicks hope forward's return can lead them to playoffs

John Hollinger, SI.com

Knicks at a Glance Head coach: Don Chaney 2002-03: 37-45 2002-03 Stats Key Additions PF Mike Sweetney (draft) PF Maciej Lampe (draft) SF Keith Van Horn (76ers) Key Losses SF Latrell Sprewell (T'wolves) SF Lee Nailon (free agent) Projected Lineup Starters Reserves PG  H. Eisley C. Ward SG  A. Houston S. Anderson SF  K. Van Horn M. Lampe PF  A. McDyess M. Sweetney C  K. Thomas M. Doleac

No team has provided a worse return on investment than the New York Knicks. Despite a roster littered with gaudy contracts, New York has finished in the lottery two straight years and could be headed for a third.

The team's best hope of avoiding a permanent seat in Secaucus rests on the gimpy knee of forward Antonio McDyess. Last year, the Knicks mortagaged some of the few remaining scraps of their future by trading the sixth pick in the draft and Marcus Camby to the Nuggets for McDyess, only to watch him fracture his kneecap in the preseason. To add insult to injury, the draft pick (the artist formerly known as Nene Hilario) is rapidly turning into the solid defensive center the Knicks have lacked since Patrick Ewing left.

But hope springs eternal in the offseason, and McDyess has been rehabbing his knee all summer. The Knicks are cautiously optimistic that he can rejoin the team early in the season, and even if he doesn't revert to the All-Star form he showed in Denver, his presence would improve the team considerably.

The Knicks made one other significant change, sending out franchise icon Latrell Sprewell in return for Keith Van Horn. The trade was a no-brainer in several respects -- Van Horn is five years younger, a more accomplished scorer, a far better rebounder and finally gives the Knicks a true small forward -- but Sprewell's defensive intensity will be missed.

Power forward depth. OK, that was a cheap shot. But the Knicks have amazed friend and foe alike in recent years with their ability to accumulate 6-foot-9 guys. The Knicks are to this position what Imelda Marcos is to footwear. 

Consider their 2003 offseason. They entered the summer needing another power forward like Mike Tyson needs another face tatto, but that didn't stop them from drafting Mike Sweetney with the ninth pick in the draft. Guess what -- he plays power forward. Then they took Maciej Lampe in the second round, who has fantastic promise, but also plays power forward. In addition to those two and holdovers Clarence Weatherspoon, Othella Harrington, Kurt Thomas and McDyess, the Knicks also traded for Van Horn -- who can fill in at power forward if need be. Somehow I don't think it will come up.

Any plausible list of the Knicks' top 12 players includes six guys whose best position is power forward and a seventh who is just as good there as anywhere else (Van Horn). Obviously the Knicks aren't going to be able to find minutes for all of these guys, especially if McDyess is playing 40 minutes a night. But there's a silver lining to all those big bodies, which is that at some point the Knicks can exchange one or more of them to fill the more pressing needs that dog their team, such as the lack of an NBA center and spotty point guard play. Until they make the exchange, however, they're stuck with the glut of power forwards and no place to play guys like Weatherspoon, Lampe and Harrington.

Defense. Knicks fans might point to the lack of a true center and the dueling mediocrities at point guard as the team's weakest link, and you could make a case for both. But even if those problems were fixed, the Knicks would still be faced with one other defining weakness: a lack of defensive mettle.

It starts at the top, where Don Chaney's laid-back demeanor isn't exactly conducive to a hell-hath-no-fury fighting spirit in the troops. But the Knicks also regressed in the offseason. Trading Sprewell for Van Horn was the right decision, but it will hurt the defense. Sprewell was both intense and athletic, and could defend against the Kobes and McGradys that overmatched Allan Houston.

That would be OK if the Knicks had a stopper ready to fill Sprewell's role, but they don't. On the wings they're stuck with Houston, Van Horn and Shandon Anderson trying to defend against the McGradys and Pierces of the East. The only quality defensive player on the perimeter is Charlie Ward, who a) doesn't start, and b) the Knicks are actively trying to get rid of.

Up front, their quantity of power forwards hasn't produced much quality on the defensive end, and they still don't have a center. Kurt Thomas fights like crazy but is hopelessly overmatched in the middle. As a result, he led the NBA in fouls by a wide margin, and that foul trouble keeps one of the Knicks' most efficient scorers on the bench.

How long will they keep riding the treadmill? At some point, the Knicks are going to have to rebuild for real. The question is how long they can go on importing high-priced 30-somethings before they have to pay the piper. To general manager Scott Layden's credit, he did make the Knicks a bit younger in the offseason by drafting Sweetney and Lampe and gaining five years in the Van Horn trade. But besides the rookies there isn't a key player younger than 28. The point guard is 30, the shooting guard is 32 and the key backup is 30, and the best healthy power forward is 33. Those four are signed through 2006, and their bloated contracts combine to eat up nearly the entire salary cap.

In other words, unless the current group ages unusually well or the Knicks find some young guys who can play, this thing could get real ugly. Until now New York's main response to the need to rebuild has been to import even more veterans and delay the process for as long as possible. That has failed the past two years, and as all the key players age, the odds of success aren't likely to improve.

Since they're capped out anyway, the Knicks will be tempted to keep trying this approach for the next four years, and it might help them win, say, 34 games instead of 30. But if McDyess can't make it back, the Knicks would be well advised to nuke the roster and start over. The question is whether they have the willpower to make that decision, or if a deal for another declining veteran will tempt them to forestall it further.

Dyessy. Despite the assorted complaints about the centers, the point guards, the defense and the team's age, the Knicks are still a playoff team if McDyess comes back and plays 65-to-70 games. Combining him with Houston will provide a deadly inside-outside combo and allow Van Horn and Thomas to snipe away from the perimeter. Subtract McDyess, however, and the Knicks are the same soft, unathletic team that stumbled through last year. Given that he's missed most of the past two seasons, McDyess faces long odds. As a result, so do the Knicks.

John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.