Pretend contenders?

Mavs will pile up the points but need to dial up postseason D

By John Hollinger, SI.com

Mavericks at a Glance Head coach: Don Nelson 2002-03: 60-22 2002-03 Stats Key Additions SG Josh Howard (draft) PF Antoine Walker (Celtics) SG Tony Delk (Celtics) SF Antawn Jamison (Warriors) PG Travis Best (Heat) C Danny Fortson (Warriors) Key Losses PG Nick Van Exel (Warriors) SF Raja Bell (Jazz) C Raef LaFrentz (Celtics) SF Adrian Griffin (Rockets) Projected Lineup Starters Reserves PG  S. Nash T. Best SG  M. Finley T. Delk SF  A. Jamison E. Najera PF  A. Walker D. Fortson C  D. Nowitzki S. Bradley

The Dallas Mavericks tied San Antonio for the NBA's best record last season. Yet you'd be hard-pressed to find a soul outside the state of Texas who either picked them to win the title last year, or is betting on them this year.

Dallas' brand of basketball, though undeniably entertaining, has its detractors, who correctly point out that the Mavs can't get any stops in the postseason. In fact, they rarely even manage a yield.

That explains why the Mavs weren't content to stand pat even after coming close last year, losing in the Western Conference finals to San Antonio. First, they pulled the trigger on a daring nine-player trade with Golden State over the summer that sent out playoff hero Nick Van Exel. In return, the Mavericks hope they filled two holes in their lineup by acquiring high-scoring small forward Antawn Jamison and board beast Danny Fortson. They followed that up with another blockbuster, prying power forward Antoine Walker and reserve guard Tony Delk from the Celtics in exchange for disappointing center Raef LaFrentz.

Those wasn't the only move, as eight of last year's Mavs have a new address. With Jamison in tow, Dallas felt free to let Adrian Griffin and Raja Bell depart as free agents. The Mavs also added Travis Best to take over Van Exel's job backing up Steve Nash -- an important job given Nash's tendency to run out of gas in March. First-round pick Josh Howard could also play a role.

Scoring. Offensively, the Mavericks were head and shoulders above the league last year. Their 103 points per game led they league; they were third in 3-point percentage (38.1 percent); second only to the crazed Celtics in made 3-pointers; and led the league in free-throw percentage (82.9 percent). But what really sets the Mavs apart is how rarely they make mistakes. The Mavs committed just 11 turnovers per game last year, shattering their own mark for the fewest in NBA history.

Leading the way is the dynamic duo of Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki. Both have that rare combination of being able to create lots of shots without many miscues. Nowitzki pumped in 25 points per game last year with his usual array of soft jumpers, and adds more variety to his game every season. As a center this year, he should leave most opponents completely overmatched. Nash, meanwhile, continues to be the engine of the offense by keeping the petal to the medal without ever losing control of the wheel.

Yet the Mavs should be even better this year, as the addition of Jamison makes them downright scary. Last year the Mavericks relied on a grab-bag combo of Bell, Griffin and Eduardo Najera at small forward. While the bunch provided acceptable defense, they were largely bystanders on offense. That won't be the case with Jamison, who shoots a high percentage on short flips around the basket but also is a capable scorer in transition and can step out to the 3-point line. His 2002-03 average of 22 points a game will take a beating with Nowitzki, Nash, Walker and Michael Finley on the court with him, but he fits the Mavs system of a high-percentage shooter (47 percent) who keeps the turnovers to a minimum (2.2 a game).

Walker was a low-percentage, high-turnover player as the second option in Boston, but the hope is that as the fifth option in Dallas he can use his considerable passing skills to open the court for his teammates.

Frontcourt Defense. The good news is that Don Nelson thinks he may have found a new starting center. The bad news is that he's the same guy who couldn't stop power forwards a year ago. So it goes for the Mavs, who have been plagued by a lack of resistance on the front line while opponents run lay-up drills on them in the playoffs.

 Last year Dallas employed Shawn Bradley and Raef LaFrentz in the middle, and was happy with neither. Bradley got off to a great start but faded as the year went on and was an afterthought by the playoffs. LaFrentz, meanwhile, is a natural power forward who gets pounded when he plays in the middle and lacks the toughness to battle with the monsters of the West. With the arrival of Jamison and Walker, it's Nowitzki's turn to man the middle, but his lack of defensive mettle is a serious problem. While he's improving, he's still easily the worst defender among the NBA's superstars.

The 2003 postseason was a perfect example. The Mavs had actually played solid defense during a 14-0 blitz to start the year, but the commitment gradually faded as the year went on. In the playoffs, the Mavericks nearly blew a 3-0 series lead to Portland because they couldn't contain Rasheed Wallace and Zach Randolph, and in the next series they couldn't stop Sacramento even after Chris Webber got hurt. While the rest of the league was playing to scores in the 80s during the postseason, the Mavs gave up at least 90 in 19 straight playoff games and allowed over 100 in ten of them. It's a tribute to their offense that they still won so many of those games, but it underlines the weakness that prevents Dallas from winning a championship.

Walker and Fortson will at least be an upgrade at power forward. Walker is undersized and doesn't rebound well, but is tough and moves his feet well; that makes him the Mavs' best defender after Finley. Fortson, meanwhile, is slow and can't jump but might be the single best rebounder in the league.

Is it possible to win a title like this? The Mavericks went into the offseason knowing that their offense was great and their defense was terrible. So what did they do? They traded for Jamison, a dynamic scorer who is one of the NBA's most unenthusiastic defensive players. Then they traded for Walker, necessitating Nowitzki moving to center for his nightly pounding. It's as though the Mavericks were on a dare to see how much more extreme they could make their roster.

Yet that system did enable them to win 60 games and make it to the Western Conference finals last season, so it's hard to completely discredit the model. The more pertinent question is whether it's possible to have an offense so good that even one of the league's least effective defenses can't prevent it from winning a championship. The Mavs have five players who averaged at least 17 points a game last year, so their offense will certainly be formidable. (By comparison, the Nets, Warriors, Bucks and Nuggets have none, and the Lakers are the only other team with more than two.)

But so far, the returns aren't good. Don Nelson's unconventional approach has always produced lots of regular season wins, but in 25 years of coaching he's never taken his team to the NBA Finals, let alone won once he got there. What the Mavs are trying to do is unprecedented. There might be a reason for that.

D as in Denied. The Mavs are one of the four best teams in basketball. They will win close to 60 games once again, thanks to a scary five-pronged offensive attack and a superstar to carry the mail in big games. But until they play defense with the same enthusiasm that they play offense, it's hard to take them seriously as a title contender.

John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.