Is eight enough?

T'wolves focus on ending string of playoff defeats

By John Hollinger, SI.com

Suns at a Glance Head coach: Flip Saunders 2002-03: 51-31 2002-03 Stats Key Additions SF Ndubi Ebi (draft) SG Latrell Sprewell (Knicks) PG Sam Cassell (Bucks) C Michael Olowokandi (Clippers) SG Fred Hoiberg (Bulls) PF Mark Madsen (Lakers) C Ervin Johnson (Bucks) Key Losses C Rasho Nesterovic (Spurs) PF Joe Smith (Bucks) PF Marc Jackson (76ers) SG Anthony Peeler (Kings) SF Kendall Gill (Bulls) PG Rod Strickland (free agent) PG Mike Wilks (Rockets) Projected Lineup Starters Reserves PG  S. Cassell T. Hudson SG  L. Sprewell F. Hoiberg SF  W. Szczerbiak G. Trent PF  K. Garnett M. Madsen C  M. Olowokandi E. Johnson

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing with house money, because they achieved their main objective before the season even started.

After a series of offseason maneuvers that changed out half the roster, the T'wolves persuaded Kevin Garnett to ink a contract extension that should keep him in the Land o' Lakes for several more years. With that distraction out of the way, they can get on with the business of the current season.

And the most important item of business is ending the team's humiliating streak of seven consecutive first-round exits in the playoffs. While Minnesota has won 50 games with regularity, the Western Conference is so loaded that it's still fallen short year after year.

Kevin McHale's response was to revamp the roster and impress Garnett enough to keep him from leaving as a free agent. His overhaul has to be considered a success, given that Garnett signed the extension.

The T'wolves' summer haul is certainly impressive. They brought in high-scoring point guard Sam Cassell from Milwaukee, got some veteran swagger with the acquisition of Latrell Sprewell from the Knicks, and inked center Michael Olowokandi to a free-agent deal. On the downside, they lost last year's starting center, Rasho Nesterovic, and had to trade key reserves Marc Jackson, Anthony Peeler and Joe Smith to get Cassell and Sprewell. They also waved goodbye to reserves Kendall Gill, Rod Strickland and Mike Wilks, leaving their bench precariously thin. Newcomers Mark Madsen and Fred Hoiberg will try to stop the bleeding.

Starting lineup. The hardest question for Minnesota's starting five might be which player's turn it is to shoot. Obviously the key link is Garnett, who finished second in the MVP voting last year and is the most multitalented player in the game. Garnett dominates on the glass but has 3-point range and is one of the best passing forwards in the NBA. Additionally, he's an outstanding defender, especially at the top of zones, where his 7-foot-1 frame (don't believe his listed height of 6-11) is impossible to pass or shoot over.

Playing second banana is Cassell, who is 34 but had a fantastic season a year ago that went largely overlooked. Cassell averaged 19.7 points a game on 47 percent shooting by terrorizing smaller guards with his back-down moves and his clever head fakes. If defenses pay too much attention to Garnett and Cassell, Wally Szczerbiak looms on the perimeter. He nailed 42.6 percent of his 3-pointers, and the T'wolves need him to shoot from behind the arc more than the 2.8 times a game he did a year ago. Of course, he's also a deadly scorer in his own right, averaging 17.6 points last year.

That leaves Sprewell and Olowokandi fighting for scraps. Sprewell was a featured performer in New York but will have to be a role player with the T'wolves, and at this point that might suit him better anyway. Minnesota badly needs his defensive intensity to guard the Kobe Bryants and Ray Allens of the West -- last year Anthony Peeler had to pass for a stopper -- while offensively he can spot up for his underrated 3-point shot (37 percent last year, including a record 9-for-9 game against the Clippers). Olowokandi, meanwhile, will get some chances in the low block, where his jump hook is deadly.

Frontcourt depth. The T'wolves' offseason facelift came at a price, and in this case the price is a frontcourt that's thinner than Kate Moss. Minnesota lost Nesterovic, occasional starter Smith and its top frontcourt reserve, Jackson, during the offseason. While Kevin Garnett's move to power forward fills one of those holes, the replacements still leave much to be desired.

It starts with Olowokandi, who was billed as an upgrade from the soft Nesterovic but is a) arguably even softer, b) less accurate and c) far less durable. Olowokandi has been billed as a potential star ever since he was taken with the first pick in 1998, but he's 28 and his production has never come anywhere close to that level. He has a deadly jump hook shot but is still just a 43 percent career shooter. He's also turnover-prone and lackadaisical on defense. Making matters worse, he played only 36 games last year, and entering this season his knee is already hurting.

Yet Minnesota desperately needs Olowokandi to be healthy, because he's backed up by the most marginal of talents. Frontcourt reserves Madsen and Johnson score about as often as a Trappist monk at a convent. Madsen averaged 3.2 points for the Lakers and shot 42 percent, while Johnson averaged 2.2 points a game for Milwaukee and is the proud owner of the worst hands in basketball. Neither is particularly effective on defense, either, although Madsen is a willing banger and Johnson has his moments as a shot-blocker. The only other frontcourt reserve is Gary Trent, an effective scorer who is useless on defense and often hurt.

Can they end the streak? 1996. Kevin Garnett was in his second season, MC Hammer was at his peak, and Bill Clinton was serving his first term. That was the last time the T'wolves failed to make the playoffs. And it was the last time they failed to bow out in the first round.

The T'wolves face the unappetizing prospect of dropping an eighth consecutive first-round series. The top four teams in the West are brutal -- the Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks and Kings are all capable of winning 60 games -- so Minnesota has a daunting task in trying to crack that group. It's frustrating because the T'wolves could be celebrating a second straight Eastern Conference title if they were in the right conference.

Nonetheless, the T'wolves have become borderline obsessed with ending the skid. Realistically, they're going to need a break or two to avoid having this discussion again next year. It's essential that they either avoid one of the four Western powers in the first round or face one at less than full strength.

Behind the 8-ball. The T'wolves overhauled their roster so completely that they're a tough team to forecast. But while the names are impressive, it's important to keep in mind their production. Olowokandi has been a colossal disappointment his entire career, Sprewell is in his mid-30s and already showing signs of slippage, and with the exception of the electric Troy Hudson, the bench is a disaster. Minnesota has a good chance of matching last year's 51 wins, but it's highly doubtful the T'wolves can do much more.

John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.