Think Floyd

New Hornets coach has to prove to vets that he belongs

By John Hollinger, SI.com

Hornets at a Glance Head coach: Tim Floyd 2002-03: 47-35 2002-03 Stats Key Additions PF David West (draft) PG Darrell Armstrong (Magic) C Sean Rooks (Clippers) Key Losses PG Kenny Anderson (Pacers) C Jerome Moiso (Raptors) Projected Lineup Starters Reserves PG  B. Davis D. Armstrong SG  D. Wesley S. Augmon SF  J. Mashburn G. Lynch PF  P. Brown D. West C  J. Magloire R. Traylor

The Hornets have been billed as Eastern Conference contenders throughout the new millennium, but as far as contenders go, they've been mostly pretenders. Winning between 44 and 49 games over the past four seasons, the Hornets have been solid, but that's been about their limit.

Given that they return most of last year's cast, one might think we should expect more of the same. Not necessarily. The Hornets got a jolt this offseason when highly respected coach Paul Silas was let go after five seasons of squeezing all he could out of the club. In his place they hired Tim Floyd, which was something of a scandalous choice down on the bayou considering that he has the worst winning percentage in NBA history.

That wasn't the only change. The Hornets' backup point guards were a train wreck last year, but that situation was solved by the offseason pickup of Darrell Armstrong. Up front, Jerome Moiso departed as a free agent just as he was coming into his own, and the Hornets will be hoping first-round pick David West can pick up the pieces.

But perhaps the most important move was re-signing defensive linchpin P.J. Brown. While the Hornets overpaid (four years, $40 million for a 34-year-old role player), Brown is basically irreplaceable given the Hornets' thin frontcourt. It was a pleasant surprise to see a franchise with such a frugal reputation (the rumored reason they opted for Floyd) bust out the wallets.

Defense. The Hornets aren't going to win many shootouts, but that's OK because they're such a tough, physical defensive team. The cornerstone is Brown, a rare double-duty post defender who is rugged enough to defend post players without needing double-team help, yet agile enough to switch onto guards against pick-and-roll plays.

Behind him, there's hardly a weak defender. Wesley is just 6-foot-2 but is so strong that it's still difficult for opponents to post him up. Davis is 6-foot-3 and has a big frame, and can bail out Wesley on the rare occasions he's overpowered. Meanwhile, the perimeter reserves absolutely shut people down. Stacey Augmon and George Lynch have a combination of size, quickness and tenacity that allows both to defend multiple positions with aplomb, while Armstrong, even at 35, terrorizes backup point guards with his defensive pressure.

It shows in the numbers. Because they're so strong up front, the Hornets rarely had to double-team and leave players open on the perimeter, which is why only one team allowed fewer 3-pointers. And once the shot goes up, the Hornets are awesome. They grabbed 52.2 percent of missed shots in their games a year ago, which was the best rate in the league. Center Jamaal Magloire and Brown are both excellent rebounders, while Davis and Mashburn board very well for perimeter players. All the bench players are above-average Windex men as well.

Bench. I mentioned earlier that some of the Hornets' bench players play good defense. The unfortunate drawback is that they have to, because their offense is rancid.

Lynch, for instance, shot 41 percent and called it a good year; the year before he shot a putrid 36.9. Augmon matched him at 41 percent even though he passed up more shots than he took. Neither player is a threat more than six feet from the hoop, which makes them a severe liability on the wings and permits opponents to gamble off them with impunity. Armstrong can't possibly be worse than the crew that backed up Baron Davis a year ago, but slumped to 41 percent last year and is turnover-prone. Age is also a concern: Armstrong is 35, Augmon is 35, and Lynch is 33.

Up front, there are more concerns. With Moiso gone, Traylor is the only proven frontcourt reserve, and he played only 12 minutes a game last year. Although he was in better shape last season, his weight remains a concern, especially with his minutes likely to increase. The Hornets signed 7-footer Sean Rooks, but he was finished three years ago and is just a source of six fouls at this point. Rookie David West provides a glimmer of hope, but he'll need to be good to make up for the loss of Moiso.

Can Tim Floyd coach? Floyd had a brutal run in his three-plus years at the helm of the Bulls, going 13-37, 17-65, 15-67 and 4-21 before Chicago finally pulled the plug. While those Chicago teams weren't exactly awash in Hall of Fame talent, he had a front line of Elton Brand, Ron Artest and Brad Miller in his third season and still managed to lose 67 times.

That doesn't speak in Floyd's favor, but two other items do. First, he had a strong track record at Iowa State, winning big with some fairly marginal talent. Second, and more important, he claims to have learned from his experience in Chicago and aims to tone down his act in New Orleans.

But you can say the same thing about any number of failed college coaches from the bizarre late-'90s NCAA hiring spree. Ultimately, the burden of proof is on Floyd to show that he can coach at a high level. For that reason, it will be important for the Hornets to get off to a fast start; otherwise, the seeds of doubt that are almost certainly swimming around the players' heads could surface in a fairly ugly fashion.

Pretending again. The Hornets have too many questions to be a serious contender in the East. They lack a superstar talent to match the McGradys and Kidds of the East, their bench prevents from scoring enough points, and their coach could charitably be described as "unproven." New Orleans' hard-nosed defense virtually guarantees them a spot in the postseason, but it's hard to envision the team playing any games in May.

John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.