Rebuilding or rearming

With Admiral retired, champion Spurs turn over roster

By John Hollinger, SI.com

Spurs at a Glance Head coach: Gregg Popovich 2002-03: 60-22 2002-03 Stats Key Additions C Rasho Nesterovic (T'wolves) SF Hedo Turkoglu (Kings) PG Anthony Carter (Heat) PF Robert Horry (Lakers) SG Ron Mercer (Pacers) Key Losses C David Robinson (retired) PG Steve Kerr (retired) SF Stephen Jackson (Hawks) PG Speedy Claxton (Warriors) SG Steve Smith (free agent) PF Danny Ferry (retired) Projected Lineup Starters Reserves PG  T. Parker A. Carter SG  E. Ginobili R. Mercer SF  H. Turkoglu B. Bowen PF  T. Duncan R. Horry C  R. Nesterovic M. Rose

Is it possible to say the defending champions are rebuilding? In the case of the Spurs, it might be. Most teams don't turn over half the roster the year after they win the NBA championship. Of course, most teams don't have a quarter of their club retire on them, either. That's the unusual situation San Antonio finds itself in.

Of course, rebuilding is a relative term. This is still one of the best teams in basketball, thanks to the presence of do-everything, two-time MVP Tim Duncan. But the retirement of David Robinson left a void in San Antonio's daunting defense, while playoff hero Steve Kerr and veteran forward Danny Ferry also sailed off into the sunset. Meanwhile, backup point guard Speedy Claxton was wooed away by the Warriors, and Stephen Jackson bolted for Atlanta.

Fortunately, the Spurs had gobs of cap room this summer, and they used it to import several replacements. The most notable and important is Rasho Nesterovic, who will have to fill Robinson's sainted shoes in the Alamo City and chip in double-figure scoring. Hedo Turkoglu, acquired in a salary dump when Sacramento got Brad Miller, also has to fill a key role as a scoring forward to replace Jackson. Behind them, Anthony Carter and Ron Mercer have to bounce back from poor shooting years as the key backcourt reserves, while Robert Horry needs to find the 3-point stroke that deserted him in last season's playoffs.

Defense. The Spurs won the championship last year because they played suffocating defense. The key is Duncan, who is so dominant offensively and on the boards that his world-class defense is an afterthought. Duncan is 7-feet tall and has long arms, but also has the discipline to avoid leaving his feet until a shot is launched. He finished third in the league with 2.9 blocks a game without ever putting himself out of position by taking a bad gamble.

However, the Spurs defense may suffer with the loss of his tag-team partner, Robinson. Now that Robinson is playing canasta on winter nights, it's up to Nesterovic to pick up the slack. This could be a problem, especially on the boards. To illustrate the difference, Robinson had more rebounds in his final NBA game than Nesterovic had in any game in his five-year career. Additionally, Nesterovic blocks shots (1.5 per game), but not at the same rate that Robinson did. Finally, his toughness to battle with the Shaqs and Yaos of the world in the post is a huge question mark.

Beyond those two, there's still loads of defensive talent. Bruce Bowen made Kobe Bryant miserable in last year's playoff series without requiring any double-team help from his teammates. He may have the quickest feet of any wing player in the league, which is why he can stay in front of virtually anybody. Manu Ginobili had the second-best rate of steals-per-minute last year, thanks to the fastest set of hands in the league. Newly signed Anthony Carter is a disaster on offense, but is one of the best defensive point guards in the league. And frontcourt reserve Malik Rose is a solid defender despite being undersized because he's so strong and physical.

Shooting. The Spurs are not exactly awash in jump-shooting expertise. Sure, they have Bowen, who led the NBA in 3-point shooting at 44 percent, but he likely will be playing fewer minutes this year, and is the last option in the offense. The rest of the crew is uninspiring, with the backcourt in particular being erratic from long range. Tony Parker, the second option on offense, is a 33-percent career shooter from downtown, and shoots a flat-footed jumper that is easily disrupted. He'll be joined in the backcourt by Ginobili, who like Parker is a rising star but has the same Achilles' heel. He hit just 34.5 percent on 3-pointers, and was horribly inaccurate shooting jumpers after he put the ball on the floor.

Last year the Spurs got clutch 3-pointers from two sources -- Kerr and Jackson. Jackson left as a free agent and is replaced by Turkoglu, who at least is roughly similar in shooting skill. But Kerr, the greatest 3-point shooter in league history, is being replaced by one of the worst. Carter hit 5.3 percent on 3-pointers two years ago, which is still better than the zero percent he shot last year. The other backcourt reserve is Mercer, who is a decent mid-range shooter but hit just 18 percent on 3-pointers last year and 25 percent for his career.

San Antonio's shooting difficulties are even more pronounced at the free-throw line. Last year they were 27th in foul shooting at 72.5 percent, and in the postseason they made several games more interesting than necessary by punting away free points at the line -- particularly Game 1 of the Western Conference finals against Dallas. Having Bowen's abysmal 40.5 percent out of the starting lineup may help, but unless Duncan and Parker can lift their free-throw percentage, the team's ranking won't improve much.

Can they replace the Admiral? Robinson's averages from last season don't look daunting: He averaged just 8.5 points per game during the regular season. But that belies his real impact on the game, especially during the playoffs. Robinson pulled down 7.9 rebounds a game in just 26 minutes a night. He sent back nearly two shots a game, and, like Duncan, did it while rarely being caught out of position or faked off his feet.

The Spurs are hoping Nesterovic can fill the void, and he will in a couple of areas. Nesterovic can shoot and pass, which will enable him to play the high post in the Spurs' offense, and do at least as well as Robinson did. Nesterovic also will play more games and more minutes than Robinson's balky back allowed him to last year.

But that doesn't change the fact that Nesterovic won't have anywhere near the same impact on the glass that Robinson did, either offensively or defensively. Additionally, Nesterovic averaged just one free throw a game last year due to his reluctance to play inside, an appallingly low total for a starting NBA center.

A dark horse to consider is Malik Rose, who played just 24 minutes a game last year but is obviously capable of contributing more. If Nesterovic disappoints, don't be surprised if Rose starts at power forward and moves Duncan to center, with Nesterovic coming off the bench. It might be the only way the Spurs can adequately replace the Admiral.

Twice as hard. The Spurs were worthy champions a year ago, but they also weren't challenged by a team with four Hall of Famers, or another with five deadly scorers. The Lakers, Mavs and Kings (if everyone's healthy) are all better than they were a year ago, which is going to make San Antonio's work doubly difficult. The Spurs could have a better team than last year and still not repeat, because the bar has been raised in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, with Robinson gone and the softer Nesterovic filling in, chances are they'll be worse, not better.

John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.