Don't look now, but Duke hasn't been to the Final Four in three years. Yet the nature of the Blue Devils' program is that they're a threat to get back every single season. And the 2003-04 season is no exception. Last year, six freshmen had a difficult time adjusting to college ball, despite their obvious talents. This year?
"I think we'll be a little bit more talented and definitely more experienced," head coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "We have a chance to be a better basketball team."
"Better" at Duke would mean capturing the ACC regular-season championship that has eluded it each of the past two seasons while seeking a sixth consecutive title in the conference tournament.
FRONTCOURT:
For the Blue Devils to compete nationally, they'll have to have at least one forward develop into a consistent force. Last year, Shelden Williams and Shavlik Randolph -- both McDonald's All-Americans in high school -- looked overwhelmed at times. "They had to learn on the job," Krzyzewski said.
Williams might be the most prepared to step forward. He's the strongest Blue Devil on the interior, a fierce rebounder who has the talent to produce double-doubles with regularity.
The Devils' most intriguing forward prospect is Randolph, whose freshman season was marked by poor defensive play -- which landed him on the bench for a long stretch -- and a late-season injury. Randolph had hip surgery in the offseason, and he's expected to be healthy. He must show the kind of toughness Krzyzewski demands to become a better defender.
Michael Thompson was seldom used last season but is now stronger and could give Duke rebounding and grit off the bench. Also, Lee Melchionni could earn more time because of his shooting touch.
But the most likely source of frontcourt help comes from freshman Luol Deng, one of the nation's most highly sought recruits. Deng is the kind of scorer and athlete who could keep Randolph on the bench.
BACKCOURT:
Forget the great forwards of the past, Danny Ferry and Christian Laettner and Grant Hill. What the Blue Devils have become is a guard-oriented outfit, and this year's team will be no different.
Start with senior Chris Duhon, who is as talented as anyone on the team. Last year, Duhon was the ACC's preseason Player of the Year. His performance, particularly on the defensive end, didn't live up to it.
"I think he had a good year, but certainly he didn't have the year that he was capable of having," Krzyzewski said. "He's got to learn from it. The thing that distinguished the great defensive players we have is they attempt to do it every night and pretty much have had success all but a few nights. It's consistency. Can he do that? Absolutely, and we have to get him ready to do that."
Though he's an excellent passer and good floor general, Duhon must shoot better from the perimeter to have the kind of breakout season that's expected. But if Duhon's shot doesn't fall, there's a good chance J.J. Redick's will. Redick is as pure a shooter as there is in the country. When he's on, he's a threat to score from the moment he steps over halfcourt. Redick and Duhon alone could give Duke the ACC's best backcourt. But the Devils' lean-and-mean look is accentuated by Daniel Ewing, who will make it virtually impossible for Krzyzewski not to start three guards this season. Ewing emerged as the Devils' best player late in the season, earning MVP honors at the ACC Tournament.
Duke will get more help on the perimeter from backup point guard Sean Dockery, who's not much of a scorer but can run the team and push the ball.
FINAL ANALYSIS:
Duke should be helped by a year of maturity, and that's from the top down. When the six current sophomores were freshmen, Duhon struggled to lead them. Now they've learned the rigors of an entire year.
"One of the old things about being a freshman is the best thing is they become sophomores," Krzyzewski said. "For these kids, [the transition] has been especially good."
But that doesn't mean an automatic trip to San Antonio. Can Duhon play up to his abilities at both ends of the floor every night? Will Randolph and/or Williams develop into a consistent inside threat? Will the Devils be able to survive a shooting slump from Redick? Plenty of questions. Krzyzewski usually has the answers.
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