One is tempted to doubt whether Tubby Smith can put another powerful Kentucky team on the court this season. Two of his three top scorers are gone, as is his top reserve. His recruiting class is solid, but not spectacular. But if Smith has proven anything in six seasons at Kentucky, it's this: Doubt him at your own risk.
The 'Cats, who were booed off the court in Rupp Arena during the exhibition season, ripped through an undefeated SEC regular season and capped their run with an SEC tourney title. Smith's name was linked with several NBA openings after last season, but he signed a lucrative contract extension. That says he's here to chase another national championship in Lexington.
FRONTCOURT
Frontcourt play is critical to Smith. He'll take a high-percentage shot over a 3-pointer whenever possible. That's why Kentucky had four key players shoot 50 percent or better last season. That won't be an easy stat for the Wildcats to duplicate, because the one thing Smith must develop this season is a powerful low post presence.
Center Marquis Estill placed his name in the NBA draft. He wasn't chosen, but Estill won't be back at UK. Veterans Erik Daniels and Chuck Hayes are set at forward. Smith simply doesn't know who will replace Estill. He could go with Bernard Cote. He could go with one of his two 7-foot-2 freshmen. Or he could simply switch to a three-guard offense with emphasis on wing play.
Daniels and Hayes are good enough to make it work. Hayes is the most complete player on the team, a dogged rebounder who gets more excited about a difficult defensive assignment than he does about scoring. And the silo-sized Hayes gives Smith something else -- bulk.
Daniels is not as powerful as Hayes, but he's more creative. He also lacks the ego to be a big scorer. But it's passing, more than rebounding, that motivates Daniels. He's the master of the unexpected crisp pass, a player who finds openings where none seem to exist.
Daniels and Hayes have the versatility and toughness to ease the transition period for the new center. Cote is bulky but likes to shoot the 12-footer. Kelenna Azubuike is the most talented player in the group, but he's a perimeter-oriented guy who must improve his shot selection, defense and rebounding. The two freshmen -- Shagari Alleyne and Lukasz Obrzut -- are projects.
BACKCOURT
If it's true that you win with guards, the 'Cats will be in good shape. In two-guard Gerald Fitch, Smith has a player perfectly designed to thrive in his system. Fitch does everything well, but nothing spectacularly. What he does best is defend and blend into the team concept. And for a guard, Fitch is a remarkably tough rebounder.
At point guard, lefty Cliff Hawkins provides speed in the open court. Hawkins improved his outside shooting and shot selection last season while reducing his turnovers. Hawkins isn't a great scorer, but he is the team's best ball-handler, a magical dribbler who can break his defender down in the final seconds of the shot clock and create a shot for himself or a teammate.
When Azubuike is not playing small forward, he's capable of spelling Fitch. Antwain Barbour, who has improved his toughness, is another player who can swing between small forward and the backcourt. Barbour and Azubuike give Smith the potential to put a relentless pressing team on the floor. Barbour, however, has to shoot better.
Smith also has two other specialists he can work into the rotation -- Josh Carrier, a zone-buster, and Brandon Stockton, who is undersized but a terrific ball-handler and press-breaker.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Smith will have to develop another inside force to help Hayes with scoring and rebounding on the block. Kentucky will have problems against teams with legitimate size across the frontline.
But opponents will struggle with Kentucky's versatility. The 'Cats won big last season because they made nearly 49 percent of their shots while limiting opponents to less than 42 percent shooting. All the returning players understand the value of emphasizing stifling defense over spectacular offense. If Smith can develop one more inside player and another shooter, the Wildcats should be as ferocious as they were last winter.
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