Tom Izzo continues to lose players early to the pros, yet he continues to schedule tougher than anyone in the nation. That strategy might come back to haunt the Spartans' coach if MSU once again is slowed by injuries.
"The last several years, we have really been hindered by injuries," Izzo said. "If you look at the Big Ten, teams that won the league, like Wisconsin and Illinois, have pretty much gone injury-free. We've had an injury epidemic. So the big thing is we have to stay injury-free, especially at the inside positions."
Michigan State expects major improvement from its talented underclassmen. "There are four or five guys that could all take a big step at once," Izzo says. "I think Alan Anderson, Kelvin Torbert and Paul Davis are the ones that have to take a big step forward. Maurice Ager at the end of the year was playing as well as any of them.
"I think we are going to be a lot better offensive team. But I said that last year and then we had all the injuries."
If healthy, Michigan State should be able to navigate a schedule that includes Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse, Oklahoma and UCLA. "I liked the schedule a lot more before we lost Erazem Lorbek [to a European professional league]," Izzo said.
FRONTCOURT
Lorbek averaged 12 points in the NCAA Tournament during Michigan State's run to the Elite Eight, Izzo's fourth trip to the Regional Finals in five years. In Lorbek's absence, Davis should offer scoring versatility beyond the arc. Davis became a long-distance scoring threat for USA Basketball's junior national team this summer.
With the exception of Davis, the Spartans have no other big man to stretch defenses from 3-point range, a vital component of Izzo's set-play offense. Davis is a fine defender and a back-to-the-basket threat.
Jason Andreas is a reliable big body who gets to the right places at the right time for screens and rebounds. His role could expand if freshmen Delco Rowley and Drew Naymick are slow to learn. Rowley is a broad-shouldered jumping jack, but he's raw on the offensive end. Naymick has good timing as a shot blocker, is a fine passer from the high post and has nice shooting form. He could develop into a long-range shooter.
BACKCOURT
Anderson can play anywhere from point guard to power forward. Michigan State settled on him as the point guard midway through the 2002-03 season, and the experiment worked well. Yet Chris Hill may get the first crack at point guard again this season.
"Right now I'm planning on Hill at the point," Izzo said. "It is still going to be a little bit of point guard by committee, yet I like the pieces of the puzzle we have to work with. A lot of it depends on how strong Andreas or Delco or Naymick comes along in the post. If they don't, then maybe I play more guards and change it right off the bat."
Anderson is an acrobatic finisher who is developing a consistent jumper. He had a great summer and will be expected to take on a leading role for the Spartans. Ager will be one of the more complete guards in the Big Ten. The high-riser has burst, scoring range and star potential.
Torbert was the top shooting guard in America coming out of high school. Injuries hampered his first two college seasons, but he is a strong defender who has the ability to become a fierce medium-range player.
Hill, who scored 34 points in a late-season loss to Syracuse, is a tremendous shooter who seems more comfortable on the wing than the point. Rashi Johnson might be MSU's best point defender and fastest transition pusher. But injuries short-circuited his chance to win the point guard job last year.
Former walk-on Tim Bograkos is an energy player who has starting experience.
FINAL ANALYSIS
MSU, even without Lorbek, is a strong candidate to reach the Final Four. The Spartans boast outstanding talent on the wings and a coach who has orchestrated deep tournament runs before.
"With the influx of the freshmen, especially Shannon Brown and Brandon Cotton, I'm hoping that we have a lot of depth and can play a lot of different kinds of lineups, meaning big at times, small and fast at times," Izzo said.
Count on Izzo to find the right formula by March.
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