Mastermind Moment

Don't count on much from Dolphins' or Patriots' passing game

By Michael Nazarek, Special to SI.com

As I sit down to write this article, my mind drifts to a 12-pack of late-season fantasy sleepers for owners to consider. But those have been covered. Thus, I decided to look in the opposite direction and offer a few thoughts on certain well-known fantasy producers and why you should consider benching them and looking elsewhere for solid fantasy numbers. Time is slipping away quickly, so let's get right to it.

The quarterbacks

Tom Brady, New England: Last week in one of my leagues, I started Brady, who has been playing better lately, in place of an uncertain Steve McNair. Both QBs threw two TDs and two picks. Brady is certainly on a roll and he's playing at home this week against a Miami Dolphins team whose secondary is not playing up to par. One problem. Weather forecasts in the area have the game being played in blizzard-like conditions. Bill Belichick will look to run the football this week, most likely with RB Antowain Smith (inactive on the quick turf last week). If the conditions are truly poor, don't expect much in the way of passing yards from Brady.

Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay: The Bucs are out of the playoff chase, and Johnson has played poorly in recent games. He no longer has Keyshawn Johnson (deactivated) and Joe Jurevicius (knee -- IR) as targets. Yes, Keenan McCardell is a very good receiver, but he can't do it all by himself. WR Charles Lee is playing over his head. Can it last? The Saints have given the Bucs fits in recent seasons, and I don't see that changing in New Orleans this week. I don't see more than one scoring pass from Johnson this week.

The running backs

Tiki Barber, New York Giants: Some fantasy experts expect a rebound from Barber and the Giants after the team's poor performance last week. In the past, that would be a good assumption, but these are the 2003 Giants. They have nothing to play for, and their head coach is a lame duck. The Giants have proven they can't win at home, so why should it change this week? Yes, Barber will gain more than the lousy 24 yards he produced last week, but asking for anything more than 80 total yards and a cloud of dust is pushing it.

Corey Dillon, Cincinnati: Dillon is healthy and starting. He also scored against the Ravens earlier this season, but he's now sharing carries with Rudi Johnson. The Bengals are also playing this game at Baltimore. Jon Kitna is hot, but that isn't benefiting the running game, as evidenced by the combined 77 yards from Dillon and Johnson on the ground last week against the Steelers. Playing under this scenario, Dillon will be hard-pressed to gain more than the 48 yards he rushed for last week. If you have a better option, use it.

The wide receivers

Chris Chambers, Miami: Coming off a three-TD performance, Chambers is an automatic start, right? Guess again. Chambers and his Dolphins will be playing in the same blizzard conditions as the Patriots in New England. That means mucho carries for Ricky Williams and not much left for the passing game. I wouldn't be surprised if Jay Fiedler passes for fewer than 100 yards in this game.

Anquan Boldin, Arizona: The probable Rookie of the Year may be a big disappointment to his fantasy owners this week. Why? The Cardinals intend to give their younger QBs the chance to play. Although Jeff Blake will start this week, Josh McCown and Preston Parsons may see some playing time against the 49ers. If that happens, Boldin's chances of producing a studly game for his owners goes right down the tubes. Don't say you weren't warned.

The tight ends

Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants: Why sit one of the best TEs in the game? Let's see. Maybe because he's probably a game-time decision due to a knee injury. Maybe because even if he does play, will he see extensive action for a team with no hopes of a playoff berth? I say the Giants will sit him again on Sunday and could even place him on IR for the rest of the season. Why risk further injury to the most important player in your passing offense?

Randy McMichael, Miami: See a trend here? If teammate Chris Chambers doesn't produce in the snow, why should McMichael? Let's just say I can see a 7-6 game developing in the Northeast this weekend, with lots of rushing and very little passing from both teams.

Whether the above players pan out and produce or not, I hope I've given you pause to think about the weather and turf situations in which they play. Fantasy owners should know all the facts before making their final decisions for their fantasy starters this time of the year. Because if you want to win, it helps if you field your best squad, right? See you next time!

Michael Nazarek is the Fantasy Football Mastermind, and has 15 years of fantasy related experience. His company offers an NFL draft kit, preseason draft guide, a weekly newsletter, and free fantasy news (updated daily) at its web site. For more information go to http://www.ffmastermind.com or call 702-568-7118.