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Marquee Matchups

Will championship weekend decide Sugar Bowl, or will computers?

Posted: Friday December 5, 2003 12:34PM
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By B.J. Schecter, SI.com

So it all comes down to this. Three teams, two spots in the title game. Oklahoma is a virtual lock to play in New Orleans even if it loses in the Big 12 championship game. And if LSU and USC both win on Saturday, the computers will decide the Sooners' opponent. Ah, yes, the beauty of college football. As for the action on the field, plenty of excitement and intrigue awaits.

Big 12 Championship | SEC Championship

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
No. 1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs. No. 13 Kansas State (10-3) at Kansas City

Saturday, 8 p.m. EST (ABC)
Arrowhead Stadium (79,451)

  Tommie Harris
Tommie Harris
Heinz Kluetmeier/Sports Illustrated

Oklahoma has been nearly invincible this season and has gone virtually unchallenged, but don't expect this one to be a cakewalk for the Sooners. After losing three straight in the middle of the season, Kansas State is finally looking like the team we thought the Wildcats would be. Because Kansas State has such a prolific rushing attack, it has an opportunity to control the game by maintaining possession for long periods of time. But the Wildcats still have to contend with Oklahoma's offense, which leads the nation in scoring (48.3 points per game) and has been unstoppable. With steady quarterback Jason White (3,446 yards, 40 TDs) directing an attack with many weapons, the Sooners are going to awfully difficult to stop. Oklahoma has won three straight against Kansas State, including a 27-24 victory in the 2000 Big 12 championship game.

Key Matchup

Kansas State RB Darren Sproles
Jr., 5-7, 170
Stats: 271 carries, 1,713 yards, 15 TDs
Sproles is like that little kid you played against in those backyard games, who was nearly impossible to catch and even tougher to tackle because he was so slippery. But Sproles is even bigger and faster.

vs.

Oklahoma LB Teddy Lehman
Sr., 6-2, 243
Stats: 100 tackles, 12 tackles for loss
You can bet that whenever there's a play within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, Lehman will be around the ball. He chases down everything and is very good at determining where the play is headed.

Where do you possibly start with Oklahoma? The Sooners are nearly impossible to defend. Aside from an early scare at Alabama, during which the Sooners trailed in the fourth quarter and came back to win 20-13, no team has been close to beating them. It all starts with White, who doesn't make many mistakes; he has completed 65.4 percent of his passes and has thrown just six interceptions. He has an outstanding receiver at his disposal in Mark Clayton, who has caught 71 passes for 1,289 yards and 15 touchdowns. The dual threat running game featuring Kejuan Jones (787 yards, 10 TDs) and Renaldo Works (710 yards, 8 TDs) is also capable of breaking off big plays because the safeties often have to stay back in coverage.

As good as Oklahoma's offense has been, its defense has been even better. The Sooners lead the nation in total defense (233.6 yards per game) and are second in scoring defense (13.2 points per game). The front seven, featuring Tommie Harris, Dan Cody and Teddy Lehman, are phenomenal and corner Derrick Strait is rock solid in the secondary. Oklahoma likes to get pressure in the backfield and has no qualms about blitzing because it is very comfortable with one-on-one coverage. The Sooners are quick, run down the ball well and won't be spooked by K-State's option.

It's no secret what Kansas State wants to do on offense -- run, run and run some more. And just when you think the Wildcats are going to run again, quarterback Ell Roberson drops back and hits Jason Terry with a bomb. K-State is ninth in the nation in rushing (234.8 yards per game) and has two very explosive backs. First there's tailback Darren Sproles (1,173 yards, 15 TDs), who's very crafty at 5-feet-7 and difficult to tackle. He hits holes quickly and has breakaway speed. Then there is Roberson (881 yards, 13 TDs) who makes excellent decisions while running the option and is one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation. When the Wildcats throw the ball, Terry is their No. 1 option. He has caught 58 passes for 1,111 yards and 12 TDs and is averaging 19.2 yards per catch.

One thing you know will always be true about a Bill Snyder-coached team is that it will play outstanding defense. Like Oklahoma, Kansas State has 45 sacks this season. This attack is built around pressure and sure-tackling, but where K-State might get into trouble is in the secondary, which is average. The strength of this unit is the linebackers -- Josh Buhl, 100 tackles, and Bryan Hickman, 98 tackles -- who are as good as anybody in the country.

Both teams pride themselves on special teams, but if this game becomes a special teams battle, Oklahoma has a clear advantage. Kicker Trey DiCarlo has hit 19 of his 20 field goal attempts and Antonio Perkins has returned three punts for touchdowns.

Whenever Oklahoma and Kansas State play one another there is plenty of intrigue because the Stoops brothers and Sooners co-defensive coordinator Brent Venables spent many years on Snyder's staff. The try to out-think one another and it's always a chess match. There are rarely blowouts when these two teams meet and don't expect one here. Kansas State is a very good team and has the potential to give Oklahoma fits, especially if the Sooners are looking ahead to the Sugar Bowl. But Bob Stoops is too good of a coach to let that happen. Oklahoma always steps up in big games and will again here.

The Pick: Oklahoma 38, Kansas State 28


SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
No. 3 LSU (11-1) vs. No. 5 Georgia (10-2) at Atlanta

Saturday, 8 p.m. EST (CBS)
Georgia Dome (71,500)

  Justin Vincent
Justin Vincent
Bill Frakes/Sports Illustrated

There's a lot on the line for both teams, but the pressure is clearly on LSU. The Tigers have a chance to break the BCS, pass USC and earn a date with Oklahoma in the national title game with a victory. But for LSU to have a shot at the Sugar, the Tigers must beat Georgia for the second time this season. The Tigers squeaked by the Bulldogs 17-10 in Baton Rouge on Sept. 20, but winning in what is basically a home game for Georgia will be much more difficult. Both teams are no strangers to the SEC championship game; Georgia won it last year and LSU took the title two years ago. It is a matchup of the two top defenses in the nation -- LSU is No. 1 in scoring defense, yielding 10.6 points per game; Georgia is No. 2, giving up 11.8 -- and this is where the game will be decided.

Key Matchup

LSU DT Chad Lavalais
Sr., 6-3 , 292
Stats: 54 tackles, 15 tackles for loss, 6 sacks
What a season it has been for the former prison guard. With a quick initial burst and immense strength, Lavalais can blow up many plays and cause nightmares for opposing quarterbacks.

vs.

Georgia OT Daniel Inman
Fr., 6-7, 321
Speaking of nightmares, this freshman is likely to have them if he doesn't play the game of his life. Inman will have to be on his toes and must find away to keep Lavalais from getting a consistent push into the backfield.

While LSU's defense is clearly its strength, the Tigers can also light it up on the offensive side. LSU leads the SEC with 35 points per game and seasoned quarterback Matt Mauck (2,550 yards and a single season school-record 27 TDs) is very accurate and doesn't get rattled under pressure. The running game is average, but LSU has the advantage of rotating in three backs: Justin Vincent (683 yards, 7 TDs), Joseph Addai (461 yards, 2 TDs) and Shyrone Carey (338 yards, 6 TDs). On the outside, wideout Michael Clayton (960 yards, 9 TDs) is the best receiver in the SEC, but Devery Henderson (790 yards, 11 TDs) and Skyler Green (485 yards, 5 TDs) are also breakaway threats.

It's no secret what LSU is going to do on defense: bring it. The Tigers are extremely athletic and fast and can cover a lot of ground. Chad Lavalais, a finalist for the Outland and Nagurski Awards, is the anchor. But the Tigers also have another play wrecker in defensive end Marcus Spears. Add superb cover corner Corey Webster, who has six interceptions this season, and this defense is stacked.

Georgia has been hampered by injuries and it's really taken a toll on the offensive end. When the Bulldogs played LSU earlier this season, three key starters didn't play, including wideout Fred Gibson. He's in this game, and that will make a big difference. Quarterback David Greene has been erratic this season, throwing for 2,761 yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. But he is 31-7 as a starter and has played in plenty of big games before. The running game is average and Michael Cooper (685, 6 TDs) has steadily improved throughout the season. But for Georgia to win, Greene has to be able to throw the ball downfield to Gibson, Reggie Brown or Damien Gary.

While the offense has struggled, Georgia's defense has helped keep it in games. In addition to being No. 2 in scoring defense, the Bulldogs are fourth in total defense, giving up just 261.9 yards per game. David Pollack (77 tackles, 9 tackles for loss), a finalist for the Lombardi award, is the unit's leader. But this aggressive, sure-tackling D is much more than Pollack. Linebacker Thomas Davis leads the team with 119 tackles, linebacker Odell Thurman has 100 tackles, including 14.5 for loss, and safety Sean Jones (102 tackles, 5 interceptions) is the leader of the secondary.

This is going to be a hard-fought, competitive game that could go either way. Usually, I have a gut or strong feeling either way on these things, but not in this one. And whenever that happens the team I pick usually goes down and I kick myself for days. That said, Georgia is not playing as well as LSU is right now. If the Tigers can't get up for this game, they don't deserve to play in the Sugar Bowl. The partisan crowd at the Georgia Dome will give the Bulldogs a lift and it may come down to the final minute, but LSU is simply a better team. The Tigers will win a thriller and will stir the pot in a brewing BCS controversy.

The Pick: LSU 21, Georgia 20

B.J. Schecter is an associate editor for Sports Illustrated. Marquee Matchup appears every Friday on SI.com during the season.

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