Marquee Matchup

USC will win shootout over Michigan, grab share of national title

No. 1 USC (11-1) at No. 4 Michigan (10-2) Thursday, 4:30 EST (ABC) Rose Bowl (91,159) SI.com's B.J. Schecter breaks down the Rose Bowl.

The Granddaddy of them all takes on a much greater significance this year as it will serve as a de facto national championship game. When the BCS was put into place six years ago, its purpose was not only to pit the top two teams against one another but also to avoid a split national champion. This year, it is possible that the convoluted system will accomplish neither. The Trojans took over the No. 1 ranking when Oklahoma lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game, and although USC somehow didn't get an invitation to the Sugar Bowl, it will win a share of the title with a win over the Wolverines (the Coaches' Poll is obligated to make the winner of the Sugar Bowl its national champion, the AP voters are not).

But before USC can start thinking about its ninth national championship and first since 1978, it must first get by a very talented Michigan team. Had the Wolverines not lost to Oregon in September, they might be playing for the title, and they are talented enough to spoil the Trojans' season. Michigan has an explosive offense with as many weapons as any team in the country and a play-making defense that is capable of slowing down USC. Averaging 450.7 yards and 42.2 points per game, the Trojans have been nearly impossible to stop this season and their defense has been just as dominant. USC is second in the nation in rushing defense (61.1 yards per game) and has forced 41 turnovers.

Mike Williams Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

USC is extremely difficult to defend and the Trojans can beat you in a lot of ways. Sophomore quarterback Matt Leinart has flourished under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Norm Chow and has made Trojans fans forget about Heisman Trophy winner Carson Palmer by throwing for 3,229 yards and 35 touchdowns. Leinart has been so successful because he doesn't make many mistakes (just nine interceptions) and he has two outstanding receivers at his disposal in Mike Williams (1,226 yards, 16 TDs) and Keary Colbert (864 yards, 7 TDs). And when teams pay too much attention to Williams and Colbert, Will Smith has taken advantage, averaging 19.4 yards per catch. USC can score in a hurry, but it can also control the ball on the ground and has three outstanding and versatile running backs in freshmen LenDale White (728 yards, 13 TDs) and Reggie Bush (480 yards, 3 TDs) and sophomore Hershel Dennis (644 yards, 4 TDs).

The Trojans have athletes all over the field and their defensive philosophy is predicated on attacking and flying to the ball. All-American defensive end Kenechi Udeze (22 tackles for loss, including 13 1/2 sacks) runs like a defensive back and has the strength to move entire offensive lines. The defensive line is the unit's strength and they affectionately call themselves "The Wild Bunch II." Nose tackle Matt Patterson has 13 1/2 tackles for loss, including seven sacks, linebacker Lofa Tatupu leads the team with 86 tackles, including 10 1/2 for loss, and Will Poole has seven interceptions.

Braylon Edwards AP

Michigan is a classic Big Ten team and is going to come out and try to control the ball. The Wolverines have an outstanding offensive line -- which has given up just 15 sacks this season -- and a running game that can tire out the best of teams. Senior Chris Perry (1,589 yards, 17 TDs) became the school's first winner of the Doak Walker Award, which is given to the nation's best running back, and he can do it all. He has the speed to break off the big run and is durable enough to chip away at you for five or six yards at a time.

As soon as teams start keying in on Perry, however, Michigan will air it out. In fact, the Wolverines are one of only three teams to have a 3,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver. Senior quarterback John Navarre has taken a lot of heat from Michigan fans over the years because he isn't flashy and has absolutely no scrambling ability, but the fact is he's been quite effective. He's 30-10 as a starter and will finish his career as Michigan's all-time leading passer (8,983 yards). This season Navarre set a school record with 3,060 yards and threw 23 touchdown passes. And like USC's Leinart, Navarre has a trio of play-making receivers in Braylon Edwards (75 catches, 1,031 yards, 10 TDs), Jason Avant (711 yards, 16.5 yards per catch) and Steve Breaston (383 yards, 12.0 yards per catch).

On defense, Michigan is solid but not spectacular. The Wolverines are athletic and plug up holes very quickly. Defensive coordinator Jim Hermann is one of the best in the business and does an outstanding job of disguising schemes. Few Wolverines have stood out on this side of the ball, but they work very well as a unit and there aren't many weak spots. Linebacker Reid Lawrence leads the team with 77 tackles, linebacker Carl Diggs (55 tackles) has been solid in the middle and Pierre Woods (12 tackles for loss, six sacks) and Grant Bowman (11 tackles for loss) are the enforcers up front. Michigan is extremely deep in the secondary and will be tough to throw on behind safeties Marlin Jackson and Ernest Shazor, and corners Jeremy LeSueur and Markus Curry.

USC WR Mike Williams
 So., 6-5, 230
 Stats: 87 catches, 1,226 yards, 16 TDs

When he finally reaches the NFL after next season, many young football players will want to be like Mike. His one-handed touchdown grab against Oregon State was the play of the year and he is nearly impossible to cover one-on-one. Williams doesn't possess blazing speed, but throw the ball into his area and chances are he'll come down with it.

Michigan CB Jeremy LeSueur
 Sr., 6-1, 200
 Stats: 42 tackles, 2 interceptions, 12 pass deflections

To say that LeSueur will have has hands full would be an understatement. That said, this superb cover corner has the skills to at least slow Williams down. If he sticks to him early, Michigan will have a chance. If not, it will be a long trip back home to Ann Arbor.

This is the best matchup of all the bowls and should be an entertaining game that goes down to the wire. How USC handles the pressure will be an early determining factor. The Trojans know that the only way for them to win a piece of the national title is to beat Michigan, but they have to forget about the big picture and concentrate on the game. The Wolverines will be unfazed by USC's talent and will be facing their fourth Top 10 team in their last five games. Michigan is very capable of winning this game, but as talented as the Wolverines are, USC is even better. Coach Pete Carroll will have the Trojans focused but loose, fired up but not out of control. With so much at stake, USC will take care of business, bring a piece of the national title back to the Pac-10 and will pull the final plug on the ridiculous BCS computers.

The Pick: USC 35, Michigan 27

B.J. Schecter is an associate editor for Sports Illustrated. Marquee Matchup appears every Friday on SI.com during the season.