Monday Night Matchup

It's a do-or-die situation for desperate Dolphins

Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (8-5) Monday, 9 p.m. EST Pro Player Stadium (75,192)

Miami is the perfect venue for a Monday Night Football game in December. The Eagles will be looking to win their ninth consecutive game and clinch the NFC East while the Dolphins will try to avoid the late-season meltdowns that have plagued them in recent years. The last time Philadelphia reeled off nine games in a row was in 1960 when it won the NFL championship.

Miami has a better record on the road (5-2) than at home (3-3) and has lost at least two games every December since the 1992 season (which is, not coincidentally, the last time the Dolphins played for the AFC championship). Now that New England has clinched the AFC East, Miami cannot afford to lose ground in the wild-card race.

Dolphins offense vs. Eagles defense

The Miami offense centers on Ricky Williams (325 carries, 1,081 yards), whose 3.3 yards per run average suggests that the offensive line has shown some inconsistency in opening holes. The Dolphins' line is not small and agile like the Broncos' unit or monstrous like the Cowboys' group; Miami has more of a patchwork bunch assembled by three line coaches over the past six seasons.

Ricky Williams Getty Images

The blocking problems do not end with the linemen or in run situations. Pass blocking and blitz pickup has limited the effectiveness of QB Jay Fiedler (1,524 yards, 73.8 QB rating). Tight end Randy McMichael's failure to pick up blitzing SS Rodney Harrison last week against the Patriots led to a Fiedler fumble in the red zone. Fiedler reaggravated a tweak in his sore knee on the play. He expects to play this weekend, but the blitz-happy Eagles defense will test his mobility.

Wide receiver Chris Chambers (49 receptions, 14.3-yards per catch, nine touchdowns) is the most productive and consistent target and normally draws double coverage. McMichael and WR Derrius Thompson (20 receptions, 14.6-yard average) need to step up this week and provide the offense with additional weapons.

Philadelphia's 21st-ranked run defense has allowed 1,271 yards on the ground over the last eight games (5.3 yards per carry), which should bode well for Miami this week. With the offense scoring 25 points per game during this current winning streak, the defensive philosophy has been that no offense with a run-first attack will be able to keep pace and the Eagles have dedicated themselves to blitzing quarterbacks while playing tight man coverage. Philadelphia is aware that Fiedler picked apart Dallas' soft zone coverages in Week 13 and was shut out by the aggressive Patriots game plan last week. With the return of Brian Dawkins and Bobby Taylor to the secondary, the Eagles have the ability to disguise coverages, which will force Fiedler to hold the ball longer and create potential sack opportunities. Even without the two Pro Bowl performers in the defensive backfield, Philadelphia allowed just 15 touchdowns through the air in 13 games.

Eagles offense vs. Dolphins defense

Donovan McNabb AP

When the Eagles were 0-2, a struggling Donovan McNabb declared, "We are the team to beat." Since that comment, the Eagles have gone 10-1. Much of that success should be attributed to the three-man running attack of Correll Buckhalter, Duce Staley and Brian Westbrook (1,335 yards rushing combined, 16 touchdowns). The power running of Buckhalter, receiving abilities of Staley and breakaway speed of Westbrook have frustrated defensive coordinators all season, taking the pressure off McNabb to make things happen with his feet. Twelve players have caught passes this season, with WR James Thrash (44 receptions, 11.1 yards per catch) the main target. Last week WR Freddie Mitchell (27 receptions, 14.7-yard average) proved effective in finding seams in the Cowboys zone coverage, showing a burst of speed after the catch. As in most West Coast systems, the Eagles have made screen passes a major component of their offense and will need to use both screens and draws to hold the Miami defensive ends in check.

When a defense holds an opponent to three points, it should expect to come away with a win. But last week the Patriots defense scored a touchdown and a safety while the Dolphins could not find the end zone. The Miami defense is ranked third in points allowed (15.6 per game) and rushing yards allowed (88.1 per game) but has given up an average of 213.8 yards passing (ninth worst in the league). The return of DT Tim Bowens from injury will bolster the run defense and allow ends Adewale Ogunleye (13.5 sacks, third in the NFL) and Jason Taylor (seven sacks) to pressure McNabb into bad throwing situations. The Dolphins have blitzed more this season, with LB Junior Seau adding three sacks and numerous tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage. Cornerback Patrick Surtain leads the AFC with seven interceptions. For the defense to be successful this week, it must continue to exploit blitz packages and create upfield pressure while at the same time account for Philadelphia's screen passes. Expect to see some zone blitz, which will free up the defensive ends to support the linebackers in the short passing game.

Miami kicker Olindo Mare has not been consistent this season, making only 10 of 16 field goals from beyond the 30 and is just 8 of 13 at home. Punt returner Charlie Rogers has tried to jumpstart the offense by gaining field position, but he fumbled away his first attempt against Dallas on Thanksgiving and had a minus 6-yard return last week. The punt cover unit is ranked first in the AFC, holding opponents to 6.0 yards per return.

Westbrook (11.9 yards per punt return) saved the Eagles season with an 84-yard return for a touchdown against the Giants in October. Kicker David Akers is 21 for 24 on the season and has the second longest successful field goal attempt (57 yards) this year. Akers has hit all 10 of his attempts in the last three games.

DE Jason Taylor vs. LT Tra Thomas

Taylor added his seventh sack of the season last week on a crucial third-down play, using his strength and quickness to get off the block as QB Tom Brady stepped up in the pocket. Thomas tends to play tall in pass protection and can be taken off his base, a tendency which resulted in a first-quarter sack of McNabb last week.

RB Ricky Williams vs. Eagles run defense

Miami's only offensive strength is Philadelphia's defensive weakness. Williams has picked up over 100 yards rushing in three of the last four games; Miami went 3-0 in those contests. Philadelphia has given up 34 runs over 10 yards in the last seven games.

WR Chris Chambers vs. CB Troy Vincent

Chambers is Miami's only vertical threat. If he can beat Philadelphia's press coverage at the line of scrimmage, then the Eagles may be forced to pull their safeties out of the box to offer over-the-top support. If Vincent can disrupt the timing between Fiedler and Chambers, the pass rush should be effective.

Miami is about even on third down, converting 33.1 percent of its attempts while holding opponents to 35.5 percent. In the Dolphins' last two games, the defense has risen to the occasion, holding Dallas and New England to 29.0 percent of third-down attempts. In the blizzard-like conditions at Foxboro, Fiedler threw to six players on third down. Williams failed on one of two third-and-1 attempts last week, only the second time this season he has been unable to covert at that distance.

Philadelphia resembles Miami in this situation with its balance of offense (35.4 percent) and defense (35.3 percent) on third down. Last week the Eagles held the Cowboys to a conversion rate of 15.4 percent. In short yardage situations look for the screen or dump-off pass to Westbrook or Staley, at intermediate distances Todd Pinkston has been the go-to guy. Philadelphia only ran twice on third down last week. This strategy must be adjusted or the Miami defense will take advantage of that tendency.

If the season ended today, Miami would not make the playoffs, which would spell trouble for coach Dave Wannstedt. Preseason expectations for a Super Bowl run have landed Wannstedt on the hot seat and owner Wayne Huizenga made a visit to the team's training facility last week. Even if the Dolphins manage to make the playoffs, they will have to win on the road to make it to the Super Bowl. With a record of 1-9 in playoff road games dating back to 1974, their chances are not promising.

With a victory last week over Dallas, Philadelphia will be making its fourth consecutive trip to the postseason. The Eagles have won 44 games in the last four regular seasons and are on pace to make their third consecutive NFC Championship appearance. Coach Andy Reid has done an outstanding job of maintaining continuity on his coaching staff and keeping his team focused after an 0-2 start. The only goal left for Reid is a Super Bowl victory, and at present his Eagles are in the driver's seat.

Both clubs will come into Monday night with similar game plans: control the ball with the running game and short pass, dominate on defense and wait for the other team to make a mistake. Williams is equal to Philadelphia's three-pronged rushing attack but cannot carry the Dolphins alone. Miami must get production out of its receivers and tight end and must have a better effort out of its offensive line.

Philadelphia was not as aggressive last week, keeping the safeties in coverage to support Taylor, who has only recently returned from injury. Look for the Dolphins to challenge Taylor and Dawkins with double moves that will force them to cut off their injured legs. The Eagles love to spread the ball around and keep players fresh. Last week four players carried the ball and eight caught passes.

Expect Philadelphia to spread the field through formations and play-calling to limit the Miami pass rush. In a game that the Dolphins must win, expect a valiant effort but an Eagles victory by a touchdown.

Reported by Dan Schwab of Real Football. Throughout the season the Real Football staff will bring you an "insiders" analysis of key matchups in the league. The Real Football staff includes coaches, players, scouts and other experts with real experience inside the NFL, who give you access to a unique, exclusive look inside the game.