Survival of the richest

Champions League final 16 offers some surprises

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By Gavin Hamilton, World Soccer Magazine

It's all change in the Champions League. Now that the group stage is over, it gets serious. It's survival of the fittest, and richest.

In the knockout format there's no room for errors; mistakes are punished. The Champions League is truly a competition of two halves. In the group stages teams can play expansive, attacking football. They can concede the odd goal here, drop the odd point there, safe in the knowledge that two teams qualify from each group.

Last season, Milan played some wonderful football in the group stages, but in the quarterfinals, they tightened up and played to their defensive instincts, so much so that the final, between two Italian teams that were both terrified of losing, went to penalties.

The team that triumphs in this season's final in Gelsenkirchen on May 26 is likely to be the one that adapts best to the changing needs of the competition.

A winning team needs a watertight defense and a ruthless goalscorer in attack. At the moment, only four teams have both characteristics: Milan, Juventus, Chelsea and Manchester United.

The new format, with a second round of 16, at least allows for some wild cards in the knockout stages. In 2001 and 2002, Panathinaikos and Galatasaray were the only quarterfinalists not from Germany, England or Spain.

Last season, the final eight were taken from Spain, Italy, England and Holland. This year, in addition to the big guns, France, Portugal, Czech Republic and Russia are represented in the knockout stages.

There are a number of surprises among the final 16. Both Sparta Prague and Lokomotiv Moscow have punched way above their weight. Stuttgart, a young team ably coached by Felix Magath, have impressed when many expected them to fade, while Porto have built on their UEFA Cup success from last season, despite the summer departure of key personnel.

The stock of coach Jose Mourinho continues to rise. But the biggest surprise has to be Chelsea. They began the campaign with little goodwill from neutrals following Roman Abramovich's unprecedented spending spree (as if the likes of Manchester United and Real Madrid have never tried to buy success).

Claudio Ranieri has endured some pretty nasty criticism from the English press, but now seems to have settled on his best 11.

The real sport over the next few months will be watching Sven-Goran Eriksson stalling on a contract extension with England while Chelsea make progress in the Champions League. As for the most notable failures from the group stages, Lazio and Inter top the list.

Inter remain furiously inconsistent despite replacing the negative posturings of Hector Cuper with the more positive outlook of Alberto Zaccheroni. Inter can console themselves with their revived domestic form, but Lazio's problems run deeper. It appears that the club is not yet free of the financial worries that almost took them under earlier this year.

A final thought about Turkish football. After promising so much at the World Cup, the national team now finds itself watching the buildup to Euro 2004 from the sidelines. Galatasaray and Besiktas both failed to reach the last 16 of the Champions League Ð and Besiktas now have the prospect of a hefty UEFA punishment hanging over them after the crowd disturbances in Gelsenkirchen.

The gulf between Europe's super rich and the rest remains as big as ever.

Gavin Hamilton is editor of World Soccer magazine. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer.