Sleeper in Seattle

Murray's season could be one for the record books

By John Hollinger, SI.com

There's surprises, and then there's Ronald "Flip" Murray.

After five games, the Seattle guard indeed has  done a complete flip in terms of his playing time and performance. Take a look at the league scoring leaders. That's not a typo: In the seventh spot, right between "Carter, Vince" and "Houston, Allan," it really does say "Murray, Ronald."

Who?

The chart below tells the story. Murray only played 62 minutes in the 2002-03 season and scored a grand total of 27 points. He beat that total on Tuesday night alone.

In fact, Murray is averaging 24.6 points, 4.8 assists and 5.2 rebounds a game as the starting point guard for the Sonics, keying them to a surprising 4-1 start. It's not just blind chucking, either: He's hitting 51 percent from the floor.

And he is showing no signs of slowing down. In fact, rather than cool off after a couple of good games, Murray is still heating up. He scored a career-high 29 points and hit an impossible game-winning shot over Latrell Sprewell at the buzzer to give the Sonics a tough road win over Minnesota on Tuesday. In fact, he's scored at least 22 points in every game.

Murray split last season between Milwaukee and Seattle, and failed to make an impression at either stop. He figured to have little chance at meaningful playing time heading into this season, with Ray Allen, Brent Barry, rookie Luke Ridnour and free agent Antonio Daniels all ahead of him in the minutes queue.

But Murray was a revelation in the summer league, and in training camp he beat out Ridnour and Daniels for what was thought to be a backup job. The stakes got higher with Allen's injury, and now it may be Barry, not Murray, who will have to make way upon Allen's return.

That he is a surprise is an understatement. The folks from Seattle will even tell you that. "Murray was a throw-in for cap purposes [in the trade for Allen]. We had no idea he was this good," Sonics GM Rick Sund told a newspaper recently.

Flip's flip might not seem that unusual. After all, there are players who break out every year, especially second-year players. Last year, for instance, guys like Troy Murphy and Zach Randolph suddenly imposed themselves on the league after pedestrian freshman campaigns.

The difference in Murray's change is the sheer magnitude of it. Compare his gains, for instance, to those of Randolph and Murphy.

Through five games, Murray's increase in scoring was nearly four times that of Murphy and Randolph, and while the other two at least played a little as rookies, Murray was nowhere to be found.

In fact, it's hard to find a single active player whose second-year gains are anywhere near those that Murray has posted so far this season. Guys just don't spend a year nailed to the bench and then show up the next season and start pumping in 20 points a game. Even the guys who are normally associated with second-year breakouts, such as Kevin Johnson, Mark Price and Kevin Duckworth, got fairly consistent minutes in their rookie seasons.

Only one player has averaged 20 points a game after a season when he played fewer than 500 minutes: John Block of the 1967-78 San Diego Rockets, and he has a big fat asterisk because he did it with an expansion team. Hey, somebody had to score.

Even if Murray can't maintain his scoring average at these lofty heights all season, he'll be in rare company. Only 22 players have played fewer than 500 minutes as a rookie and averaged double figues the next season. Of those, most still played far more than Murray did a year ago. If we narrow it to players who played fewer than 200 minutes, Murray will be just the 10th in NBA history. And as the chart below shows, most of them barely cleared the 10-point threshold, while Murray is blowing it out of the water.

[Technical note: I didn't include players whose second season was in the 1967-78 ABA after their first season was in the NBA, since the obvious cause was the change in quality of play.]

Only two other players in the past 15 years have made the leap: Ruben Patterson and Michael Redd. Ironically, Redd was one of the players preventing Murray from playing in Milwaukee a year ago. (Perhaps it's not ironic, since both were coached by George Karl, who is notorious for leaving young players on the bench to rot.)

How's he doing it? With the whole package. Murray can hit the three, but also has the size and strength to finish shots and draw fouls in the paint. Combine that with a deadly jab move to his left, and you have one of the biggest surprise seasons the NBA has seen in some time. Just ask the T'wolves.

John Hollinger covers basketball for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus. Click here to send him a question or comment.