One for history

Kenseth next on cusp to win Winston Cup with fewest victories

Matt Kenseth won a series-best five races in 2002 but finished eighth in the points. Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Don't talk to Matt Kenseth about finishing ahead of the pack on race day, but back in the field on banquet night. He knows the drill: A series-high five victories last season -- but not enough consistency in the other 31 races -- resulted in an eighth-place finish in the points, 368 behind Winston Cup champion Tony Stewart.

Fourteen times in the 29 years since the current points system was implemented has the driver who won the most races in a season also captured the championship. Ryan Newman is poised to be the latest driver to take home the most checkered flags, but not the series title. His eight wins are the most for a driver since 1998, when Jeff Gordon tied Richard Petty's modern-era record of 13.

Kenseth, who holds a commanding 267-point lead over Kevin Harvick with five races remaining, broke a two-race streak of thirtysomething finishes with an eight-place showing at Charlotte. And heading down the homestretch, Kenseth will be fending off his personal history: One win in the past 15 fall races at Martinsville, Atlanta, Phoenix, North Carolina and Homestead. His average finish is 20th in those races, including four showings of 34th or worse.

Kenseth has finished 19th or worse in five of seven career starts at Martinsville and he readily admits the team is focused on changing its luck Sunday. "Martinsville has never been my greatest track, especially since they reground the surface last year," admits Kenseth, who has 10 top-five finishes this year. "That's one of the reasons we chose to burn a test here last week. I think we figured out some great things regarding how the car turns in the middle and I'm anxious to see if it will be enough to pick up our average finish here."

So can Harvick -- or anyone -- make a five-race charge to snatch the title from Kenseth (and team owner Jack Roush, who has never won a Cup championship)? It's unlikely, but fans of the Underbird remember Alan Kulwicki's sprint to the finish in 1992. Trailing by 278 points with six races left, Kulwicki's luck was remarkable; Bill Elliott's average finish in the final six races was 20th, while Kulwicki's was sixth, including two second-place finishes and a fourth. Kulwicki won the '92 title over Elliott by 10 points, the closest margin in series history.

Harvick has been prone to five-race spurts of brilliance during the past three years. In 2001, his average finish was 6.8 in races 24-28. In 2002, his average finish was 6.4 in races 17-21. But nothing compares to his surge in races 21-25 this year -- one win, three second-place finishes and a fifth-place for an average of 2.4. He was seventh in points after his win at the Brickyard, moved up to third after Bristol and has been locked into second since Dover.

But was it too little, too late? If history is any indication, it'll be another case of wait 'til next year for Harvick. As for Kenseth, he's out to make his own history; no driver has ever won the Cup without at least two victories.

Kenseth's two-race hiccup at Talladega and Kansas saw his points lead diminish from 436 points to 259, but his series-high 23rd top-10 finish at Charlotte added eight points to his lead and stemmed Harvick's late-season tide. "The blood is dripping," says Harvick. "We're trying to find out where the trail is."

But much like Kenseth, Harvick has struggled at Martinville's .526-mile paperclip-shaped track; Harvick has finished out of the top 20 in three of four career starts at Martinsville, but did have his best effort -- 16th -- in the spring.

"We're digging, and Matt's having some bad luck," says Harvick. "If we keep knocking the lead off 80 or 100 points at a time, we're going to be in good shape in a couple of weeks. Right now, we're just going out and doing everything we can every week. Our cars are better, our pit stops more consistent, and that is helping everything come together. Down the stretch here, we're definitely racing a little harder because we've got something to shoot for. We just need luck to stay on our side and we'll see how things play out."

I think, for a while now, we've all known how this is going to play out. In the Waldorf, with Newman counting his wins -- and Kenseth hoisting the Cup.

B. Duane Cross is a senior producer for SI.com.