Hold on to your hats

Six weeks in, this already looks like another wildly unpredictable season

Six weeks are in the books, and already the 2003 NFL season has stopped making sense.

Yeah, yeah, we know. Upside-down standings are the norm these days, when everybody seemingly starts over every year, with little or no carryover effect present from the season before. It's free agency's fault. Or the cap's. Or maybe the league-wide lack of depth, combined with the always-building pressure on head coaches to win now, lest they find themselves back in the coordinator job market. (Where have you gone, Marty Mornhinweg?)

But honestly now, it does seem murkier than ever out there, doesn't it? All I know is that what happens each week between the white lines must make a mess of the betting lines. Consider the odds on the following developments as we hit mid-October:

• None, repeat, none of the league's eight defending division winners are in first place after six weeks. The eight teams that had the best time of it last regular season are 19-26 (.422) so far, with only Tennessee (4-2) and Tampa Bay (3-2) above .500.

• Half of the NFL's final four from 2002 -- Oakland and Philadelphia -- are scuffling along with losing records and appear to be no threat to make up for their near-misses of last January.

• The defending Super Bowl champions haven't won a home game yet. The Bucs let games against Carolina and Indianapolis slip away in overtime at Raymond James Stadium, and with this week's upcoming trip to San Francisco, it'll be at least Week 8 (when Dallas visits) before the Tampa Bay faithful get to savor a victory first hand.

• The Bucs aren't alone in their home miseries. Eight of the league's 12 playoff teams from last year have at least two home losses. That dubious club includes the Jets (1-2 at home), Pittsburgh (1-2) and Cleveland (1-2) in the AFC, and the Giants (1-2), Philadelphia (1-2), Green Bay (2-2), Tampa Bay (0-2) and Atlanta (0-3).

The bottom line? When you can't count on the Green Bay Packers to win and win methodically at Lambeau Field on Lombardi Avenue, you can't count on anything.

When the Bucs are capable of giving up 21 fourth-quarter points in a historic Monday-night meltdown, and then follow that up by hanging a fourth-quarter 21 spot of their own six days later, you can't possibly know what's coming.

And when Bill Parcells takes over the victory-challenged Cowboys and doesn't even have the patience to wait until his trademark second year to make a playoff run, well, then you just know throw up your hands and wait to see what else might transpire in Paul Tagliabue's wacky fiefdom.

What other choice do we have? NFL fans have learned this season that if they go to bed early on a Monday night with one version of reality in their heads, they're liable to wake up Tuesday with it being hopelessly outdated (see: Bucs defense, invincible).

"It's the same story every year now," said Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi on Monday, a day after his team dropped to 2-3 with a lackluster 17-6 loss at New England. "That's just the way it is, and that's the way it's going to be. It's a whole 'nother world now. It's very exciting for the league, and for the fans, but it gives us ulcers."

Accorsi cites all the usual suspects for the volatility of today's NFL, mainly free agency, cap constraints and the depth issue that makes most every team the near equal of its competitors. But, if anything, he says, the combination of those factors have made parity more rampant than ever.

"I don't have any proof, but I'm not so sure this new system doesn't have even more of an effect every year we're under it," he said. "We've been through cycles before, but it seems like it's getting even tougher every year to create any sort of separation between teams.

"You have to make decisions every year about which players you're willing to lose, and somehow that changes the dynamics of your team every year and gives other teams a chance to catch up quicker. That's just the way it is. I don't waste my time bemoaning it, because I have to deal with the reality. They're not going to go back to the way it used to be, no matter how I feel about it."

Tennessee, 4-2 and a game behind the first-place Colts in the AFC South, is one of the few playoff teams from last season that has been able to carry some of that momentum into 2003. But every time the Titans play a measuring-stick game this season, somebody changes the meaning of the win after the fact. To be honest, it's not all that unusual this year.

"We played Oakland to open our season, and that game was one we pointed at all offseason, because they beat us in the AFC championship," Titans general manager Floyd Reese said. "We beat them and we're thinking that it was a real big win. But now they've struggled all season. Then we go to Pittsburgh and win a tough game, and that feels like we're getting somewhere. But the next week, the Steelers lose to Cleveland at home.

"But you know what? The system that was put in place years ago works. And it works better than it ever has. There is parity, and this system keeps everybody in it. It's still a bit early this season, but there are two or three teams that look really strong and two or three that are really struggling. Everybody else is in the middle. Last year at this time, we were 2-4 and people were burying us. But we ended up in the AFC title game. Now we're 4-2 and we're scared."

But for every 2002 playoff team on the decline, there's a new, fresh-faced contender that's starting to love the view from the top of the heap. The NFL's elevator effect -- going up, going down -- is a great ride if you're on the climb.

"For me, being on the 6-10 side of things last season, you've got to love it, because this is a system that gives us all hope," said Vikings head coach Mike Tice, whose 5-0 team rates among the NFL's biggest surprises this season. "If you do your work in the offseason and make some smart moves, it means you have a chance to contend right away."

The Vikings are gunning for their first playoff berth since 2000 and increased their NFC North lead over Green Bay (3-3) to two and a half games without even playing this weekend. And that's not all.

"We went from third to first in total offense in the league and we didn't even play," Tice said with a laugh. "That's a good thing, huh? I think in the end, the teams that get the most breaks and stay the healthiest and don't turn the ball over, those are the teams that are going to win in this league.

"And let's face it, you can't win a horse race with a mule. And you can't win a football game without better players. We're better this year because we have better players. Plain and simple."

Oh, if only anything about the NFL really was.

Short snaps ....

• That was an honest-to-goodness big-league win turned in by the Cowboys on Sunday. Nothing cheap or flimsy about it.

Two quick observations about the resurgence in Dallas: First, how long does Parcells have to actually work for the Cowboys before he goes into the Ring of Honor? I'm thinking it's Week 12 or so, with Dallas still trying to decide if it's going to be a halftime ceremony or pregame.

Secondly, you just know it has to be killing Jerry Jones not to crow about hand-picking quarterback Quincy Carter in the 2001 draft. I'll bet he wants to gloat so bad his face hurts. More than usual even.

• I don't know about you, but with his underachieving team plodding along at 2-3 and his star-laden offense producing more turnovers than points, I'm figuring it's almost time for Giants head coach Jim Fassel to unveil his annual save-the-season stunt.

What unexpected twist awaits this year, Jimbo? You've already used the playoff-guarantee and take-over-the-play-calling gambits to great effect. I've got it. How about a hunger strike until Tiki Barber stops fumbling?

• Curious quote of the week, from Donovan McNabb, after the Eagles fell to 2-3 with their first loss to the Cowboys in their past seven meetings: "I hope we'll get better. We have to play our season and see what happens.''

That's keeping those Super Bowl expectations in check.

• Please, no more calls, we have a winner. There was indeed a Dewayne Robertson sighting Sunday at the Meadowlands. The young defensive tackle who prompted the Jets into trading up into the draft's No. 4 slot last April notched his first sack in the rout of the Bills.

And while we're at it, Jets defensive linemen Shaun Ellis and Jason Ferguson each had two sacks, and linebacker Sam Cowart was back in his 2000 form with a sack and a game-high 15 tackles. Wasn't that the way things were supposed to go in New York this season?

• Though some said he'd wind up getting exposed in coverage playing more of a free safety role in New England, veteran Rodney Harrison has turned into a force for the plucky, no-frills Patriots. He had two of New England's four interceptions against the Giants in the Patriots' rain-soaked 17-6 win, and his locker room leadership has helped hold an injury-decimated team together this season. Looks like the Chargers ran off another good football player.

• At the risk of hyperbole, Baltimore's second-year safety Ed Reed is a play-making machine. He blocked a punt and returned it 22 yards for a touchdown in the Ravens' win at Arizona and added an interception. It was the third punt block -- and second he has returned for a touchdown -- of his brief career and his ninth interception in 21 regular-season games.

That works out to a pace of one pick every 2.33 games for Reed. By comparison, Hall of Fame safety Paul Krause, the NFL's all-time interception leader, had 81 career pick-offs in 223 games -- or one every 2.75 games.

• You get the feeling that while Steve McNair will make everyone's MVP short list, we'll all get our heads turned at various points this season by the likes of Kansas City's Dante Hall, Indy's Peyton Manning, Carolina's Stephen Davis or Baltimore's Jamal Lewis, and somehow, some way, McNair will end up fifth in the voting?

Maybe we should all apologize to McNair ahead of time, knowing that we're going to overlook him. The guy's as reliable as the two-minute warning, but something about the way he goes about his business makes us all taken him for granted.

"The thing that is really unique about it is that this at least the third year in a row where you could go out and say, 'Well, how much can he improve?' " GM Reese said. "But after six games this year, he's off the charts, and yet there's nothing to make you say this is as good as he's going to get or he'll never be better. I don't know where he goes from here, but right now he's doing pretty darn good."

Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.