There might be some tough times ahead for Trent Green and the Chiefs. AP

Six weeks remaining in the regular season. Thanksgiving just around the corner. Time to separate the contenders from pretenders in the NFL playoff hunt. Shall we?

AFC East

• New England (8-2): Call me self-interested, but there's a little something special building in Foxboro, home of my preseason Super Bowl-winning pick. The Patriots have no one that scares you on offense, and their defense is just now getting healthy again. But it's hard to find a team that's better at doing the little things that it takes to win. Look out if they somehow earn the AFC's top seed. Nobody wants to see Gillette Stadium in January.

Playoff projection: Division winner, No. 1 or 2 seed.

• Miami (6-4): Didn't the whipped-puppy look on the face of head coach Dave Wannstedt after Olindo Mare's overtime field goal say it all? His Dolphins didn't win so much as survive for another week of grief-catching.

Playoff projection: Will miss out on a wild-card berth and have time for a little January housecleaning.

• Buffalo (4-6): Losers of six of their past eight, the Bills have gone belly up in particularly odorous style. The defense continues to play hard, but on offense it's three games in a row now without a touchdown. All that's really left is to see how Buffalo handles its looming decisions on the head coaching and quarterback fronts.

Playoff projection: Maybe 2004, Bills fans.

AFC North

• Cincinnati (5-5): Marvin Lewis really isn't the vengeful type, but if he was, he might care to point out that his Bengals have more wins than either Buffalo or Tampa Bay, the two teams that passed on hiring him in 2001-02. Cincinnati has proven it can beat good teams at home, but it won't mean much if it can't handle its upcoming three-game road trip.

Playoff projection: An 8-8 finish, providing it includes a Dec. 7 win at Baltimore, could land the Bengals the division title.

• Baltimore (5-5): Mutiny is such an ugly word. But, oh, what the Ravens' defense must be thinking about now. With anything approaching middle-of-the-pack NFL quarterbacking, Baltimore would be cruising to the playoffs. But last we checked, Trent Dilfer is still in Seattle.

Playoff projection: With just one game remaining against a winning team, and four home games, the Ravens have the easiest road to the playoffs. But nothing's ever easy in Baltimore.

• Cleveland (4-6): The Browns came back from the dead to make the playoffs last year, but don't count on it happening again. The schedule is too tough and the team vibe in Cleveland is too unpredictable. 

Playoff projection: The underachieving continues.

AFC South

• Indianapolis (8-2): The difference between the Colts being the No. 1 or 2 seed or fighting their way out of the tough No. 5 wild-card slot likely is going to come down to whether they can win at Tennessee on Dec. 7. Who wouldn't like the Titans in that one, especially with Indy's defense starting to look a little ragged around the edges? 

Playoff projection: Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning will get the chance to end their postseason funks, but I think they're going to have to win a road game to do it.

• Tennessee (8-2): Even in their new passing-team incarnation, the Jeff Fisher-led Titans play the kind of football that is well-suited to games where the weather's cold and the pressure's hot. But Tennessee has the same situation to deal with as the Colts. Its postseason run is going to depend on winning the division.

Playoff projection: Said it in August and I'll say it again: Titans vs. Patriots in the AFC title game. 

• Houston (4-6): After winning at Miami and Buffalo, Houston is mulling over applying for entry into the AFC East. Not so fast, you upstart Texans. New England looms this week.

Playoff projection: Hey, isn't playing Super Bowl host enough for year two?

AFC West

• Kansas City (9-1): So, that loss at Cincy may be the best thing for them in the long run, huh? I'm not sure I like the sound of that kind of thinking, but at least the Chiefs now know they're going to have to fight for the AFC's home-field advantage. There are three quality 8-2 teams just waiting for them to slip up again.

Playoff projection: It's going to be a huge letdown if K.C. enters the postseason as the No. 3 seed, with nothing more than a first-round home game. You heard it here first.

• Denver (6-4): We found out anew just how different this season might have been had Jake Plummer stayed healthy. The good news is that there's still time for the Broncos to make some noise in the season's home stretch.

Playoff projection: Ladies and gentlemen, introducing your AFC No. 6 seed.

NFC East

• Dallas (7-3): You're starting to think maybe Bill Parcells has ridden this horse about as far as it's going to go, aren't you? Me too. With an offense averaging fewer than eight points per game in its past four outings, it's going to take a ton of great defense to beat out the Eagles for the division title.

Playoff projection: Close but just shy of a first-year playoff berth is still going to get Parcells a bunch of Coach of the Year votes.

• Philadelphia (7-3): The Eagles are the team that nobody wants to play about now, and you get the feeling that there's still plenty of ceiling room for Andy Reid's resilient bunch. They're getting healthy for the first time all season, Donovan McNabb has his mojo back, and they found out they can win at the Linc. Even better, the Bucs probably aren't going to be around to torment them in the playoffs.

Playoff projection: Going up every week. That Dec. 7 home date with Dallas should tell the story, but the No. 1 or 2 seed seems well within reach.

• New York Giants (4-6): Sorry, but this year's performance of the death-defying Jim Fassel-saves-his-job high-wire act has been canceled. Refunds are not available.

Playoff projection: Look on the bright side, Giants fans. Special teams gaffes won't haunt you this January.

• Washington (4-6): Somebody I know and work with insists that the Redskins could still go 10-6 and make the playoffs. But the way I figure it, it would take an unprecedented string of forfeits, and Steve Spurrier really shouldn't count on that.

Playoff projection: That Norv Turner era is starting to look pretty darn spiffy, isn't it Daniel Snyder?

NFC North

• Minnesota (6-4): Maybe Mike Tice has sworn off shaving until his team wins another game. Only in today's NFL can you be one of the season's best out-of-nowhere stories and one of its biggest disappointments -- all in a one-month span. I still think the Vikings get to 10-6 and into the playoffs, but it's not going to be all hiccups and giggles after all.

Playoff projection: Tice got his players to play hard late last year with nothing on the line. He'll do it again, and it'll mean the Vikings will nip Green Bay for the division crown.

• Green Bay (5-5): If only the Packers didn't have so many home games left. They're 2-3 at the renovated Lambeau, with three more to come. Hard to believe, but that's what it has come to. The Packers are a better road team these days. Does Brett Favre have one more playoff drive in him? It was tough to tell from his modest showing Sunday in Tampa.

Playoff projection: The Packers have a schedule they can make up some ground with, but something tells me that blown late lead against Philadelphia is going to end up costing them a playoff trip.

NFC South

• Carolina (8-2): We're going to find out if the Panthers have the stuff to be their conference's top seed, just as soon as the red-hot Eagles visit Ericsson Stadium on Nov. 30. Until then, we should just all assume that Carolina will win every week by three points. They've outscored opponents by just 18 points this year, but are six games over .500. You do the math.

Playoff projection: They've got that magic-carpet ride thing going this year, and at worst it looks like it will earn the Panthers a No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.

• New Orleans (5-5): Just when the Saints fight their way back to break even, they look up and see trips to Philadelphia and Washington looming. Here's a switch: If New Orleans can make it to December in decent shape, the season's final month just might rescue their season this time. Three home games and only a trip to Jacksonville awaits.

Playoff projection: It's just a hunch, but I think the Saints beat out the likes of Green Bay, Dallas and Tampa Bay for the NFC's final wild-card slot.

• Tampa Bay (4-6): Now what looks like the aberration, last year's smooth sailing to the Super Bowl, or those streaky, up-and-down Dungy teams of 1998-2001? Maybe Jon Gruden is getting a dose of how enigmatic this talented bunch of Bucs can be. No, Tampa Bay is not dead yet. But it needs a five-game winning streak right now.

Playoff projection: The Bucs will make it interesting, but the year-after-the-Super-Bowl hex racks up another victim.

NFC West

• Seattle (7-3): The Seahawks should go undefeated at home this year. They're 6-0 with only Cleveland and Arizona remaining. But even that feat probably won't be enough to assure themselves a playoff berth without at least one more road win. The problem? Games at Baltimore, Minnesota, St. Louis and San Francisco remain. No gimmes there.

Playoff projection: Tied with the Rams, I don't like their NFC West chances. But they've come too far in this renaissance season to let everything slip away.

• St. Louis (7-3): Despite losing just once, the Rams haven't inspired any confidence the past three games. But you have to like their remaining schedule -- three home games, where they're unbeaten, to go with three road games against losing teams. If Marc Bulger can pull things together for a month or so and Marshall Faulk carries the running game, St. Louis is going to be the X-factor in the NFC.

Playoff projection: They've been behind from the start this season, but the Rams will reign over Seattle when all is said and done.

• San Francisco (5-5): The 49ers dug themselves too deep a hole. Despite beating Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football, they have road games remaining at Green Bay, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Philadelphia, so there's no margin for error in what has been a rocky first season for head coach Dennis Erickson.

Playoff projection: They have a long way to go and a short time to get there. They won't.

Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.