Peyton Manning's remarkable season is only good for third in this race. AP

We're three-fourths of the way home in the 2003 regular season, but things change week by week and month by month in the NFL. Here's what we think we know so far, and what we think is still to come:

Most Valuable Player

1. Steve McNair, Tennessee: His season has been a tour de force performance, but his lead is hardly insurmountable and he'll lose momentum if he misses more than a game with his calf injury.

2. Tom Brady, New England: Yeah, I know his numbers don't measure up to Peyton Manning's, but Brady gets it done when it matters most. Wins are the ultimate statistic in the NFL.

3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis: I'd say his MVP candidacy has reached a make-or-break point with this week's trip to Tennessee. Manning must win a big one -- where have we heard that before? -- to remain a first-rank MVP prospect.

4. Priest Holmes, Kansas City: I know Deuce McAllister is the sexier pick right now but, again, winning carries the most weight with me. Holmes has 1,736 total yards, just 20 fewer than McAllister, with a 17-8 advantage in touchdowns.

5. Jon Kitna, Cincinnati: I said it last week, and Kitna is even more deserving of consideration in light of Sunday's comeback win at Pittsburgh. In his past nine games, in which the streaking Bengals are 7-2, Kitna has 19 touchdown passes and four interceptions.

Coach of the Year

Bill Belichick, New England: With an eight-game winning streak, a 10-2 overall record, six wins by seven points or fewer, and more than 40 different starters used, you can't quibble with Belichick's methods. He has pushed all the right buttons, starting with Lawyer Milloy's controversial opening-week release.

Bill Parcells, Andy Reid, Marvin Lewis and Dick Vermeil are all worthy contenders.

Offensive Player of the Year

Steve McNair, Tennessee: For now, I will defer to my MVP pick. But this is the somewhat nebulous award that could wind up in the hands of Holmes, McAllister, Ahman Green or St. Louis receiver Torry Holt if their final numbers are gaudy enough.

Defensive Player of the Year

Ed Reed, Baltimore: I know, I know. Reed's probably not even the best defender on his own team, thanks to the monster season being turned in by Ray Lewis. But I don't know of any other defender who seems to impact his team's games more than Reed, even though a good bit of that impact comes on special teams. Reed has three touchdowns this season, two on punt blocks and one on an interception return. His six picks and 16 passes defensed also lead the Ravens.

Transformation of the Year

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati: He didn't merely have to resurrect a team that hasn't had a winning season since Sam Wyche was in town. He had to change the mentality of a franchise that had losing down to a science, and coax a front office out of its 1960s approach to the game. Check, check and check.

Disappointment of the Year

Buffalo Bills: Yes, they beat another strong contender for this distinction in winning at the Giants on Sunday. But given the promise of last season's 8-8, the upgrades that were made this offseason, and its 2-0 start, Buffalo's nose dive is the league's biggest downer. Honorable mention goes to Tampa Bay, the Giants, Atlanta and Pittsburgh.

Clutch Player of the Year

Tom Brady, New England: There's got to be a superlative for the season that Brady is having. If the game is close, he's money in the bank. Sunday was his fifth win in games decided by six points or fewer this season, including four-, three- and four-point wins in the past four weeks.

Comeback Player of the Year

Quincy Carter, Dallas: Can you win comeback player of the year if you had never really arrived to begin with? That's the question with Carter, who has made huge strides this season after losing the starting job in Dallas in 2002. Cincinnati's Jon Kitna could get a few votes in this category, as well, given that he too was benched at one point last season. And Baltimore's Anthony Wright is also making a bit of a late bid.

Disaster of the Year

Oakland Raiders: Last year's AFC champions have unraveled before our eyes. From Bill Romanowski's training camp punch to Charles Woodson's mutinous interview to Bill Callahan calling his guys "the dumbest team in America,'' it has been a whacked-out, free-falling type of season for the Pride and Poise boys.

In-season Turnaround of the Year

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia: Has there ever been a more profound reversal of fortune than the one McNabb has executed in the past two months? The Eagles have won seven in a row and nine of 10 since starting the season 0-2, and McNabb is back to his confident, play-making self. He's spreading the ball around, making a couple eye-opening throws a game, and superbly directing an offense that has dependable weapons but no studs.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Anquan Boldin, Arizona: With 70 catches for 1,032 yards in 12 games, the former Florida State receiver could probably sit out the rest of the season and still win the offensive first-year honors. He's proof positive that sometimes the best bargains are in the draft's second round, and that somebody's 40-yard dash time shouldn't be the end-all measurement.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Eugene Wilson, New England: Green Bay middle linebacker Nick Barnett will get plenty of support, but the Patriots really started coming together on defense when Wilson filled the void at free safety left by Lawyer Milloy. Wilson is a converted cornerback who has maintained his nose for the ball, as his three interceptions illustrate.

Front Office of the Year

Philadelphia: The Eagles routinely get trashed for whom they let get away in free agency -- see Jeremiah Trotter, Shawn Barber and Hugh Douglas -- but it never seems to cost them. On the plus side, linebacker additions Nate Wayne and Mark Simoneau have both paid dividends. Wayne is a playmaker, and Simoneau is the steady, leading-tackler type. Kudos as well to the remarkable job turned in by New England's front office, which finds players everywhere and winds up needing every bit of the depth it has stockpiled.

Breakthrough Player of the Year

Adewale Ogunleye, Miami: The fourth-year defensive end had 9.5 sacks last season, but his 12 in 12 games this year is tied for the league lead, and he has clearly out-performed his highly regarded and highly paid fellow defensive end, Jason Taylor.

Out of Nowhere Player of the Year

Brian Russell, Minnesota: It has been a big year for surprises, what with Rudi Johnson, Domanick Davis and, yes, even Chicago's Mr. No-Name, running back Brock Forsey, taking turns making headlines. But at least all three of those players were drafted. Russell, a collegiate free agent safety who spent 2001 on the Vikings' practice squad, has seven interceptions (tied for second in the league), and he started the season with a pick in each of his first six games.

Sophomore Slump of the Year

Julius Peppers, Carolina: For a guy who seemed bent on making amends for that four-game suspension at the end of last season, Peppers hasn't heard his name called much this year. His paltry three sacks could mean he's handling a lot of the offensive line's attention, thereby freeing up the Panthers' terrific defensive line duo of Mike Rucker and Kris Jenkins (a combined 17 sacks). But, alas, that really hasn't been the case.

How it's going to play out

 AFC division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Kansas City
 AFC wild cards: Indianapolis, Miami
 NFC division winners: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Carolina, St. Louis
 NFC wild cards: Dallas, New Orleans
 AFC championship: New England over Tennessee
 NFC championship: Philadelphia over St. Louis
 Super Bowl: New England over Philadelphia

Short snaps

• Here's one of the more amazing statistics I've heard in quite some time: Coming into Sunday's game against visiting Philadelphia, Carolina kicker John Kasay, the last remaining original expansion Panther, had not missed a field goal of less than 40 yards since the 1998 season.

Kasay promptly went out and missed from 32 yards in the first quarter, and 38 yards in the second quarter, capping his awful day with a 49-yard failure in the third quarter and a wide-right point-after attempt in the fourth quarter. That's a kicker's nightmare version of the grand slam. Kasay's only success came on a 20-yard first-quarter field goal.

Needless to say, the Panthers lost to the Eagles, 25-16. When your offense is built around a Stephen Davis-led running game and field goals, as Carolina's is, you can't afford to miss three out of every four field goals.

• Let me get this straight: The Bears are 5-7 and just one game behind second-place Green Bay (6-6) and two games back of first-place Minnesota (7-5) in the NFC North? Plus the Vikings still have to play at Chicago in two weeks.

I'm guessing eight wins and at least a second-place finish means you can't fire Dick Jauron. Right, Jerry Angelo?

• Imagine how much dough you would have been rolling in today had you gone to Las Vegas two weeks ago, right after Baltimore lost 9-6 at Miami, and put $100 on the Ravens scoring 44 points in each of their next two games. Anthony Wright Fever: Catch it.

Secondly, imagine what it feels like to be Chris Redman in Baltimore about now.

• What were those uniforms the Jaguars had on Sunday night? Yeah, it was Throwback Week in the NFL, all right. And Jacksonville should start by throwing that hideous black-on-black combination right back from whence it came.

• It's tough for anybody to roll up big numbers in the Eagles' three-headed backfield, but second-year man Brian Westbrook looks like the obvious featured back of the future. The mighty mite from Villanova runs hard every time he touches the ball, wastes no time hitting the hole and has an added dimension of speed compared to Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter.

Westbrook, who leads the Eagles in rushing (488 yards), punt return yardage (201) and is second in kickoff return yardage (463), has emerged as the back the Eagles turn to when they need a key play.

• If Jon Kitna leads the Bengals to the division title and maybe a first-round playoff win, how does Marvin Lewis finesse the switch to Carson Palmer next training camp? Salary-cap economics dictate you have to get Palmer on the field at some point in 2004. But after all those years of losing, will the Bengals and their fans be ready to suffer through a young quarterback's growing pains?

• They're not going to make it to the playoffs in their second season, a la Jacksonville and Carolina, but those spunky Houston Texans are proving that the meticulous Dom Capers was an inspired head coaching choice for another expansion program. Capers is 9-19 in his two seasons in Houston, with another four games remaining in 2003. Cleveland, the most recent expansion team before Houston, went 5-27 in its first two seasons in the league, in 1999-2000.

• Remember how utterly dominant Tampa Bay looked in beating Philadelphia 17-0 on the road in Week 1? It was two teams heading in diametrically opposite directions, right? Now consider that the Eagles (9-3) have four more wins than the Bucs (5-7).

Almost the exact same scenario played out in the AFC in Week 1. Buffalo trounced visiting New England 31-0, and we all fell for the scenario that the Bills were on their way and the Patriots on their way down. But New England is 10-2, with twice as many victories as Buffalo (5-7).

• You get the feeling that the Rams' Marshall Faulk is getting his legs back under him? Me, too. And that's not the best of news for the rest of the NFC.

• If you're Jim Fassel, you've got to have a warm spot in your heart for this particular Giants club -- which happens to be your last. Yes, sir, the G-men are taking no chances with this Fassel death watch. That makes four consecutive mail-in efforts by New York's 4-8 collection of underachievers. Thanks for the memories, guys.

Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.