Fearless forecast

Here's the reasoning behind my 2003 playoff picks

Reading the NFL news in March and April is like reading the financial pages. You're buried under a mass of seven- and eight-figure contract numbers. It's depressing to a true football fan, but it's not as bad as now, when you feel like you're looking at a never-ending hospital report. Chad Pennington -- 12 weeks; Michael Vick -- maybe six weeks, maybe eight; Tony Gonzalez -- out for an unspecified time; Chad Eaton -- out for the season (and that's a bigger loss than it seems); Kyle Vanden Bosch, Duane Starks -- gone for the year from a Cardinals roster that was plenty thin to begin with. Terrible reading.

Vegas keeps shifting its odds on who's going to win the Super Bowl every five minutes, as the casualty reports keep filtering in. But I change nothing because last weekend I handicapped the 2003 season, based on a gigantic game-by-game chart, but even now, one week later some of that is obsolete. My predictions appear, without explanation, in Sports Illustrated's NFL Preview Issue. I will now offer something in the way of explanation and flesh it out. Flash it out. Trash it out.

A word of caution for those of you who are contemplating a serious investment, based on what you are about to read. In 1986 I predicted every division, including wild cards, correctly, and had the Giants beating Denver in the Super Bowl, which happened. People from as far away as Jersey City were writing to me to tell me how I had won them a yacht, a trip to the Bahamas, a new dining room set, you name it. I could have run for governor. In the 16 seasons since then, I haven't come close to that achievement, and some of the picks were real howlers, but I won't go into that now.

The trick is to strike a balance. So in the name of the balanced strike, I offer my predictions for 2003.

AFC

East

Bills, 10-6: I wasn't that sold on them until I visited their camp. Then I got a lively swashbuckling feeling that they really think they have something special going. I'm not wild about their D-line, but I think the linebacking set, with new additions Takeo Spikes and Jeff Posey, will be so good that it'll cover for the deficiency. I see them jumping off to a fast start, winning four of their first five games. It could be even better than that because they face the Jets on the road in Game No. 6, and with Pennington out, the Bills could take that one. Washington the following week figures as a letdown, but it's in Buffalo, so the Bills could be 6-1 after the contest, with the rest of the division chasing them.

Patriots, 10-6 *: I'd be happier about the Patriots if they didn't settle on 35-year-old Ted Washington at nose tackle. He may not last the season. But overall, I think their defense has improved enough to give them a playoff-caliber record. The offense could use a running game, but a lot of NFL teams can't run the ball. I gave them a split against each division team, with the road game against the Jets iffy now because we don't know how much Vince Testaverde has left. I didn't see them suffering any major upsets, but I gave them a couple of minor ones -- Washington on the road and Tennessee at home, a game in which the Patriots might be favored, so it won't be an upset at all. You want to have some fun? Try setting the line right now on all 256 regular-season games and see how close you come. I tried it the other day. Got about 10 games done and then I said, "What, am I nuts or something?"

Dolphins, 9-7: This third-place prediction surprised me, too, because the Dolphins don't have a real weakness. I could be very wrong here, but I haven't yet figured out why their defense is so much better at home than it is on the road. So I had them getting upset in Jacksonville and San Diego. My predicted loss to the Jets in New Jersey in Game No. 2, could be all wrong, though. Then Miami would be 10-6 and the second and final wild-card entry, edging out the Raiders.

Jets, 7-9: This was predicted before Pennington went down. I didn't like the receiving corps. I didn't think the defense had improved as much as everyone hoped it would. Now any record is possible, including a better one, if Testaverde becomes the inspirational comeback story of 2003 and the Jets rally 'round him. I refuse to give that scenario the sneer treatment, the curled lip and raised eyebrow, because those are the judgments that, if proved wrong, people never let you forget.

NORTH

Steelers, 10-6: Very solidly coached, year after year. Bill Cowher and his staff do not get the credit they deserve, because the personnel department does not work any miracles. I tried to make them occasional upset victims, i.e., Chiefs and Bengals on the road (not so sure they'll be favored at K.C.), just to keep their record within reason, but I have them sweeping Baltimore (the Steelers have won their last four against the Ravens), and knocking off such toughies as St. Louis and Oakland at home.

Browns, 7-9: They were 9-7 and playoff bound last year. This season, they'll play the better QB, Kelly Holcomb, right away. So what's my beef with Cleveland? Not really sure. Offensive line, defensive line, schedule's a little tougher. Just a feeling. Please do not send irate e-mails hollering, "Waddya mean, a feeling? What kind of reason is that?" If you've ever tried to handicap something like this, you'll realize that hunches play a big part. I've run into trouble in the past when I let better sense talk me out of those "feel" games.

Ravens, 7-9: I'm sorry, I just won't take them all that seriously until they have a functional quarterback. Maybe Kyle Boller will be the man some day, but not right now.

Bengals, 5-11: No miracles yet from Carson Palmer. Wait a year, maybe two. But still, 5-11 is a whole lot better than last year's 2-14.

SOUTH

Titans, 10-6: I thought very seriously about making the Titans my AFC Super Bowl entry. They had two major areas of concern last year -- pass defense, notably the nickel and dime packages, and quality wideouts behind Derrick Mason. The nickel situation took a hit when No.1 draft Andre Woolfolk dislocated his big toe in the first exhibition game (he should be back for the regular-season opener, but it's a bad injury for a cornerback), and they feel that the wideouts -- "good guys you never heard of," Jeff Fisher says -- are just fine. The Titans still don't know who their MLB will be. A Super Bowl? Ah, I just can't pick 'em. Division champ, OK, but not for the big ride.

Colts, 9-7: They're right on the playoff bubble. If someone else falters, the Colts are in. What will cost them? Two losses to the Titans, which doesn't really make sense, since I said Tennessee's nickel defense is a problem, and all the Titans will see in those games will be three and four wideout packages, right? But I just think that Tennessee is a tougher team. The Titans have beaten the Colts three straight, including twice in Indy.

Jaguars, 6-10: Poor Jack Del Rio seems snakebitten in his first season as coach. First, all those guys go down in camp from heat prostration, then his top wideout, Jimmy Smith, gets a four-game substance-abuse suspension. I think Del Rio will be a good coach, and he'll get the Jaguars back in the hunt, but not this year.

Texans, 4-12: Yep, they're inching along on tiny feet, and I like their defense OK, but an O-line that set a record for sacks allowed last year doesn't really look all that better now. I have them beating the Jaguars, Jets, Panthers and Colts, all at home, and that's it. OK, maybe they could upend K.C. at home, but I have big things in store for the Chiefs and I don't want to ruin it.

WEST

Chiefs, 10-6: Speak of the devil. If the defense improves, they're a playoff team. If the defense improves a lot, then they will go to the Super Bowl. Do I like their new DE, Vonnie Holliday? Yes, a lot. How about their new weakside backer, Shawn Barber? Uh, kind of. At least he offers speed. Do I think Ryan Sims, who was injured last year, can come back and be the force that everyone said ... blah, blah, blah. Yeah, OK, right. Stop asking me all these questions. One more. Is Dexter McCleon really the answer to the speed problem in the secondary? How should I know? That's why they play the season. Maybe those guys will run faster this year. I like the Chiefs, see. I like them to go all the way. Priest Holmes has to stay healthy. Lots of teams have guys who have to stay healthy. Where would the Raiders be without Rich Gannon, for instance? Or the Jets without Pennington?

Raiders, 9-7 *: This time last year I said, "Just watch, the age thing will get them and they'll fold." So they didn't fold. "Just watch," I said, "the age thing will get them and they'll fold down the stretch." So they didn't fold down the stretch. And they went to the Super Bowl. So I picked them to win it. Did I know that Lincoln Kennedy wouldn't be able to block Greg Spires? So where am I now? The age thing has to catch up to them sometime, but I won't be roped into predicting it again just yet. I'll play it smart, like all the other writers do, and predict it after it happens. Health will determine their fate. If they stay healthy, they could wind up in the Super Bowl again, but I'd hate to pick two repeaters (see that, I've just revealed the secret of whom my NFC team will be).

Broncos, 9-7: Larry Coyer, who coached a set of linebackers who played just great last year, now takes over a defense that started off fine for Ray Rhodes but then tailed off. Coyer could be just the man to pull things together, and if that happens then the remaining "if" belongs to their new QB. I loved Jake Plummer as a rookie in Arizona. Then bad stuff started happening. I think he got overcoached. He also picked up some bad habits that'll be tough to break. But Mike Shanahan knows the position, even though things didn't work out so well with Brian Griese. I'd say this is a very happy marriage if not for one thing: The fans were very rough on the Snake in Monday's exhibition game. After a while they were booing him for every screw-up. And yet his final rating for the game -- not that one contest means an awful lot -- was 93.9. I hope they don't turn him into a psychological basket case.

Chargers, 8-8: I've heard some people pick them as their sleeper team to go all the way. Well, OK, it was my cousin's nephew who picked them, and he's only 8. But still, this is a team that catches everyone's fancy. They can sure run the ball. Ex-Cardinal David Boston is a Pro Bowl-caliber wideout. Their high drafts have gone for the secondary the last two year, and the defense in general should be better. Sure, they could find the playoffs, why not? And that would make the AFC West one of the premier divisions in football, right?

NFC

EAST

Eagles, 11-5: Personnelwise, I see holes. Other teams can match up well against Philly. But I like the coaching. Andy Reid runs a good ship. Defensive coach Jim Johnson's terrific. The Eagles know how to win. The East will be a good two-team race between the Eagles and Giants, who also know how to win -- now. (So watch, the 'Skins or Cowboys will sneak in, and all I'll hear for a month is, "Aren't you the guy who said it would be a two-team race?")

Giants, 10-6 *: Let's hear it for line coach Jim McNally, who molded all those great Anthony Munoz-Max Montoya units in Cincinnati. His Giants lines keep losing people, but he keeps putting them back together again. How about now? How about his young RT, Ian Allen, for instance, who has looked like a stiff in the exhibition games? Nah, McNally says. He'll be fine. When the O-line came together at the end of last season, the Giants had one of the NFL's most devastating attacks. But the D-line came up with a case of the shorts against San Francisco in the playoffs and the ship went down with all hands aboard. So the offseason was dedicated to a defensive-line overload, although, personally, I'd be happier if they hadn't brought in so many skinny pass-rushers and just gave DE Frank Ferrara, a very formidable run-stopper, a more serious look.

Cowboys, 5-11: It doesn't get any more interesting than this. Bill Parcells is arguably the best coach in football. He comes out of the TV studio and takes over a demoralized team with no clearly defined QB. The Cowboys will improve, if not in the record then in the outlook. I probably should give them another couple of victories, but it's tough to do when they don't have a real quarterback. Next year, when Parcells either figures out a way to coach Quincy Carter or Chad Hutchinson up to serious status, or more likely, brings in a guy with real credentials, then they'll be at playoff level. But not yet.

Redskins, 5-11: How could I let this happen, after I've already expressed in print that I liked their offseason moves? Well, I have them losing all their road games. Last year they were 2-6 away from home. It isn't that I think Steve Spurrier's a screw-up. He says he's learned from his 2002 mistakes. It isn't, as I've been accused, that I have a rooting interest against the 'Skins because of the owner. I got over that a long time ago. It's just that I don't see a sense of purpose with this organization. It has a hole in it. Difficult to fully explain. I'll develop the thesis to a greater extent when they start off 2-6. If they start off 6-2, why then I'll have an equally acceptable thesis for the rebuttal.

NORTH

Packers, 10-6: Let's face it, the division's a steal. Except that the Pack took a big hit when RG Marco Rivera, one of the league's finest interior linemen, went down with a torn medial collateral ligament last week. Depending on when he's back, and how he handles playing in pain (which he did most of last year) this could be one of the league's finest offensive lines. And from that freshet, all good things flow. The defense has to do a better job of stopping the run, which is why the mammoth Gilbert Brown, torn biceps and all, is back in the lineup. The early schedule is kind. I have the Pack winning its first six, four homies and two on the road against the Cards and Bears. Then it's "catch us if you can."

Vikings, 6-10: I don't see disaster here, unless a secondary that was full of holes last season fails to improve, but just look at the schedule. In the first five games I have them losing at Green Bay, beating the Bears at home, then losing to Detroit on the road, San Francisco at home and Atlanta away. So they're sitting at 1-4 and fingers are being pointed and everyone's yapping about Mike Tice's job. So they beat Denver at home. But the following week they're caught looking ahead to Green Bay and the Giants nail them. Now they're 2-5, and the season plays out, and that's how I came up with 6-10. It's tough. I just don't see the Vikes being that much better.

Bears, 6-10: Kordell Stewart is the new QB. Weeb Ewbank used to have an expression for this situation. It's called "inheriting other people's problems." Other than that I don't see a hell of a lot of difference in what was one of the NFL's great failures in 2002. So why the better record? Slightly easier schedule.

Lions, 5-11: Well, it's better than last year's 3-13, which was better than 2001's 2-14. Keep improving by a game or two every year and by 2006 or so Detroit will have a playoff team. Coachmooch has a nice young QB to work with, and the draft's best wideout, and ... and ... check back with me later.

SOUTH

Buccaneers, 12-4: I hate to pick Super Bowl repeaters. Boy, do I hate it. I mean, it's just so gutless. But I can't help it here. Defensive tackle Anthony McFarland's return from injury will make a dominating D-line even better. He's a terrific player. Joe Jurevicius, the third wideout, was on the verge of a breakout season last year. Now he could have one. The O-line wasn't very good in 2002, but who noticed? Now it's upgraded in two spots, assuming ex-Giants guard Jason Whittle recovers from his broken leg, as predicted. I've always gotten in big trouble when I went for a Super Bowl repeat, but I just can't help it. St. Louis would be my challenger.

Falcons, 9-7: I had them at 10-6 and a wild-card team. That was pre-Vick. Now it's Doug Johnson's club for a month or so. What's Johnson's resume? Three starts. Beat the Giants last year, throwing short passes, which the receivers kept breaking for longer gains against a stumbling New York defense. Also scooted 15 yards for a TD. Started twice in 2000. The Falcons got murdered in both contests -- by the Seahawks and Saints. There is enough spirit and verve on this team to hold the fort until Vick returns, and then it could kick it into overdrive and make the postseason.

Saints, 8-8: Well, they know how to beat the Bucs. And lose to the Falcons. Both of which they did twice last year. I don't like the Saints much better than I did last season, and when I got through marking in all my little Ws and Ls, I found that I'd given them an 8-0 mark at home, and 0-8 on the road. This, of course, won't happen, but I'll bet that their final record won't be much different from what I've predicted.

Panthers, 7-9: They have a terrific defense, but it's not enough. They spent a lot of money to bring in Jake Delhomme, hopefully to unseat 37-year-old Rodney Peete, but it hasn't happened. Peete's the QB. That ain't progress.

WEST

Rams, 11-5: I'm played out on the Rams because of all the stuff I've written about the Bulger-Warner situation. Warner's the QB, and there's enough around him to cover any failings he might experience, such as the early season miseries that plagued him last year. If they give him enough protection, he'll come through the season OK. Kyle Turley at RT was a huge pickup for them. Dave Wohlabaugh at center helps, assuming his broken hand is healed. Their defense doesn't thrill me, but it should be all right. I still think Bulger should be their starting QB. We might have to wait until the playoffs to see this situation resolve itself.

49ers, 9-7 *: I had to make a late adjustment after Vick went down. Jeff Garcia and the offense will help cover up a defense that I don't much like. I also don't like the way their secondary took a step backward last year. Mike Rumph as a starting corner is an invitation to disaster. They're gonna give up a lot of yards.

Seahawks, 8-8: They lost exactly the kind of player they can't afford to lose -- Chad Eaton, a 325-pound run-stopper and block absorber. Everybody ran on Seattle last year. The seahawks have been burning out middle linebackers like crazy, with no one else up front giving Eaton any help keeping them clean. Maybe new defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes will figure out a way to shore up the middle. Maybe the new MLB, ex-Titan Randall Godfrey, will be the answer. Maybe, maybe, maybe. Right now I'm penciling in their left guard, Steve Hutchinson, as one of my all-pros, and it'll be up to him to stay on the team or to play his way off it. He was simply sensational last season, until he got hurt.

Cardinals, 4-12: What will save Dave McGinnis' job? Tell me, please, because I'd like to get to work on it right away. He's a nice guy and a good coach who's been short-handed ever since he took over the reins of this godforsaken franchise. His quarterback, Jake the Snake, and his all-pro wideout, David Boston, are gone. His best pass rusher, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and the team's only serious venture into free agency in the last two years, cornerback Duane Starks, are out for the year. Billy Bidwill probably will fire McGinnis to save face. He ought to fire himself.

* = Wild-card team

POSTSEASON

Wild-card playoffs:

AFC -- Kansas City beats Oakland in a shootout at Arrowhead. New England, keyed by an active and aggressive defense, springs an upset, going up to Buffalo and upending the Bills.

NFC -- Bulger comes in early for Warner and throws for 350 yards as the Rams beat the Niners in St. Louis. The Giants' defense rises up and gives Brett Favre a terrible time in Green Bay, as New York records the weekend's second upset.

Division Playoffs:

AFC -- Pittsburgh overwhelms the Patriots' offensive line and New England falls. Kansas City surprises Tennessee with a defense that keeps Eddie George and Steve McNair in check, and the Cinderella Chiefs are headed for the Championship.

NFC -- The Bucs beat New York in a low-scoring, ugly game decided by turnovers. Warner starts for he Rams in Philadelphia. The Eagles' blitz package is too much for him and his blockers. Philly wins it.

Championship games:

AFC -- The Chiefs invade Pittsburgh, where they haven't won in 17 years, and under a steady shower of snowflakes, spring one of the great upsets in their history.

NFC -- The Bucs beat Philly in a repeat of last year's title game.

SUPER BOWL XXVIII -- The ball is over for Cinderella. Tampa Bay 27, Kansas City 20. A late turnover sinks the Chiefs' final comeback attempt.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Paul Zimmerman covers the NFL for the magazine and SI.com. His "Inside Football" column and Mailbag appear weekly on SI.com. To send a question to Dr. Z, click here.