Here are my final 2003 rankings, and they haven't changed much from last week. Playoff teams traditionally have suffered a sag after clinching something or other and have been upset during the final two weeks, when they have been going for higher seeding or home field advantage, so I didn't let that unfortunate situation exert a huge influence on my overall evaluation of the team. I'm including my preseason prediction for each club and trying to figure out where I, and the rest of the world, and the team itself went so wrong, if indeed we did. Six teams I had projected into the playoffs didn't make it, which isn't really that terrible, considering that eight of last year's postseason entrants were shut out.

My preseason ranking follows the 2003 record and an asterisk indicates that I had the team in the playoffs.

NFL Power Rankings Rank LW Team 1 1 New England Patriots (14-2) (10-6*) I liked them as a solid playoff team, but then, as the season wore on, I assumed their rash of injuries would sink them. Never in my wildest dreams did I figure they could play through this mess. Bill Belichick is my Coach if the Year, and Scott Pioli, their personnel director who brought in all that fine young talent, would be my Executive of the Year if I were allowed to chose such an award. I was banned from doing so one year after I selected Eddie Oliveri, the weaselly little guy who was in charge of throwing the writers out of the Giants' locker room. 2 3 Philadelphia Eagles (12-4) (11-5*) The Donovan McNabb fall and resurrection did not figure into my preseason reasoning, naturally. I had them as my second seed, based on overall solidity of the operation (you don't want to know who was my No.1). Some people had the Giants ahead of them. 3 2 St. Louis Rams (12-4) (11-5*) I almost put them into the Super Bowl. I liked the way they had solidified their offensive line. I believe I wrote at the time that the whole thing was contingent on Marc Bulger starting. 4 4 Denver Broncos (10-6) (9-7) I thought they would be OK with Jake Plummer, but I didn't like them as a playoff team based on what I thought was a shaky secondary. Why have I ranked them so high now? Because they defeated two of the teams that could conceivably be ranked above them, K.C. and Indy, in convincing fashion. I can't put Tennessee above them, because the Titans lost to the Colts twice. Throw out the Packers game (which I wish I'd have done before I made that foolish prediction) and you'll see four very solid performances in a row. 5 5 Indianapolis Colts (12-4) (9-7) Now I'm really starting to go wrong. I'd been hearing for so long about how their defense had been upgraded that I adopted a show-me attitude. The test will come against Denver Sunday. 6 6 Tennessee Titans (12-4) (10-6*) They were my No. 2 seed in the AFC. Solid in all departments, although I wasn't really thrilled about their draft. 7 7 Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) (10-6*) My third seed, but my Super Bowl choice from the AFC, projected to lose in the big one to you don't want to know who. Slam-bang offense, backed up by a defense that would be good enough, thanks to free-agent pickups. Well, maybe it will be good enough, maybe not. Storm warnings are out. 8 9 Miami Dolphins (10-6) (9-7) Didn't like them as a playoff team. Figured they'd hit a blah spell somewhere along the line. Jay Fiedler's a good leader but, unfortunately, a spray passer at times. 9 8 Dallas Cowboys (10-6) (5-11) Kaboom! I had Parcells on a three-year plan, part of which would be to find a QB. I didn't see how he could turn things around overnight with essentially the same players. I was not alone in underestimating this fine coach. 10 10 Green Bay Packers (10-6) (10-6*) My No. 4 seed. The reasoning was that the offense would get them into the playoffs, the defense would keep them from going very far. Actually the offense is keyed by one of the very best ground attacks in the league, which I didn't really see coming. 11 11 Carolina Panthers (11-5) (7-9) Don't forget that when this pick was made, Rodney Peete was the starting quarterback. I figured that John Fox had a kind of QB blindness, and it would take a while, and some losses, before this situation got straightened out. 12 12 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) (7-9) Did we see, back in August, that this team would produce a 2,000-yard runner? We did not. We saw a big league defense, as usual, and some pretty grim quarterbacking, with rookie Kyle Boller having been announced as the starter, over Chris Redman, eight days before the season began. Anthony Wright had thrown a total of 28 passes in the preseason. 13 15 Seattle Seahawks (10-6) (8-8) I didn't like the defense. I'm still not sure about it, but I thought it really showed some toughness against the 49ers in a game the 'Hawks had to win. 14 13 Minnesota Vikings (9-7) (6-10) Last year they couldn't stop anybody. Then all that changed. Then it kind of reverted back. If Jimmy Kleinsasser would have held onto that onside kick, if a Viking would have fallen on Josh McCown's third down fumble ... if, if, if ... 15 14 Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) (5-11) Other people had them with a worse record. Their defense just played itself out. The season got too long. Marvin Lewis will have that fixed by next season. 16 17 New Orleans Saints (8-8) (8-8) I was puzzled then, I'm puzzled now. I don't know what holds this team back. Maybe it's the town. 17 16 San Francisco 49ers (7-9) (9-7*) I was shocked by what Jeff Garcia looked like against the Seahawks Saturday. He had the appearance of an old man whose body had just given out. I guess I've come, too often, to expect magic from this guy, but he's not a big person and he's been taking too much of a beating. I hope this is only temporary. 18 18 Chicago Bears (7-9) (6-10) The emergence of young defensive stars, such as LB Lance Briggs and CB Charles Tillman, has moved them into respectability. The offense continues to hold them back. 19 19 Buffalo Bills (6-10) (10-6*) My AFC East champ and No. 4 seed. This comment will be repeated, as we enter the Failures section: There is no unit that affects the overall well being of a team as much as the offensive line. Deficiency here is a cancer that will spread through the entire body. The QB will turn into a punching bag. The defense will eventually crack from being on the field too long and constantly being put in bad situations. In a nutshell, that's what sunk the Bills. 20 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) (12-4*) My repeating Super Bowl champ. I wish a had a repeating rifle. Every psychiatrist with an office south of the Delaware Memorial Bridge has an answer to half of the Great Collapse of last season's Super Bowl participants. Mine is simpler than most, and I've written this before. The great players weren't great anymore, or at times not even good. Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber were just guys, and Barber missed a shocking amount of tackles. John Lynch was always playing hurt and couldn't cover -- and missed tackles. Simeon Rice stopped playing the run. Greg Spires, one of the heroes of Supe XXXVII, was invisible. Warren Sapp played as the mood seized him. Dwight Smith, another guy who came up big in the Supe, seemed lost on his coverages at times. Had enough? 21 21 New York Jets (6-10) (7-9) Herman Edwards needs a person, either on the field with him or up in the booth, to handle tricky clock decisions and strategy matters. He almost said as much himself. Terry Bradway, the GM, recently assured the world that Edwards would be back next season. Who is there to ask whether Bradway will be back, after the mess he made of the personnel situation? No one. They sent it all in to move up in the draft and pick a defensive tackle who hasn't yet learned how to play, and the unit zeroed out against the run. But they still might have been a playoff team if QB Chad Pennington hadn't missed so much action. 22 22 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-10) (10-6*) My No. 1 seed in the AFC. Aw, fooey! I'm tired of this game. Let's play something else. Too late, you say? Yeah, you're right, if I were you, I'd be saying the same thing. OK, I didn't see their pass defense collapsing the way it did. I thought the Tommy Maddox Cinderella story would continue for another season. It didn't, although he kind of straightened out his game during the season. Maybe I'm just not a very good picker and I should be doing something else, such as editing other people's stuff. 23 24 Houston Texans (5-11) (4-12) I didn't see their offense coming around because I didn't think Domanick Davis would give it so much oomph. Maybe there were other people who did, and I wish I would have found them and talked to them, preseason. Things got bad when the first two QB's went down, but the Texans are moving in the right direction. 24 26 Atlanta Falcons (5-11) (9-7) Not a playoff team, I figured, but not a disaster, either. When our preseason issue wet to bed, Michael Vick's injury was being diagnosed as a four-week thing. The Falcons have gone 3-1 with him as a starter, but he still looks like he has to re-learn all his passing techniques. Maybe I'm being picky, though, and I ought to just flow along with all the gee-whiz hype. 25 23 Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) (6-10) Byron Leftwich might be great some day, but right now he's a guy who keeps both teams in the game. Their defense has shown some good signs. 26 27 Cleveland Browns (5-11) (7-9) Very inconsistent, which is not exactly breaking news. I've felt this way about them for two years now. 27 29 Detroit Lions (5-11) (5-11) When their emotional burners are turned way up they can beat the good teams. I give coach Mariucci credit for that. When they lose, it's usually because their players simply aren't good enough. That's why they hold the draft, and why they trade, and bring in free agents. You know something? I figured out that last part all by myself. 28 25 Washington Redskins (5-11) (5-11) I don't wish bad things on anybody, but I can think of only one good thing that came out of the Skins' collapse. All of a sudden all those nasty Redskins e-mailers ("Oh, they'll be 5-11, will they? Listen, you New York jerk..." etc.) just quit cold. I mean, they shut up. Blessed silence. No, I'll never be convinced about an organization as creepy as this one. 29 30 Arizona Cardinals (4-12) (4-12) In a way, I'm glad they ended the year on a high note for Dave McGinnis. Good man, working for a downbeat outfit. They need players, and maybe McCown's a start. 30 31 San Diego Chargers (4-12) (8-8) I felt the Marty Schottenheimer thing would kick in and bring them respectability. I don't like the way their defense is set up, particularly the pass variety. I don't like the way the QB situation deteriorated. Lots of things I don't like in this world, but it goes on just the same, doesn't it? 31 28 Oakland Raiders (4-12) (9-7*) They were my No. 6 playoff seed, which means I saw their decline coming -- didn't it mean that? DIDN'T IT? Tell me it did. I figured the age thing would kick in last year. It waited a year, but that wasn't the real reason for the disaster. Having two QB's go down didn't help. Or the O-line falling apart, or some guys not wanting to play for their coach anymore. It'll be interesting to see if they bite the bullet and clear out the old vets and start the reclamation right away. I don't know if Big Al is capable of that. 32 32 New York Giants (4-12) (10-6*) This is the classic case of the O-line collapse killing the whole organism. I blame the personnel department. It should have picked up fill-ins, band-aid types, street free agents who could just hold the fort for a while. It didn't. There was a certain smugness. Leave it to Jim Fassel. He's an inspiration. Leave it to Jim McNally, the line coach. He can work wonders. Didn't work this time? OK, let's fire the coaches and start again.

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Sports Illustrated senior writer Paul Zimmerman covers the NFL for the magazine and SI.com. Click here to send Dr. Z a question.