Cy of relief

Braves' Ortiz sees which way this vote is headed

Russ Ortiz has talked to enough people around baseball in the past few weeks -- media, coaches, players, hangers-on, just your basic baseball watchers -- to know what's coming.

He's braced himself. He's come to terms with it.

Really, what else can a guy do?

"I can almost guarantee you," says Ortiz, the Atlanta Braves' ace, "I won't win it. I've talked to a ton of people who tell me, around the league, my name is never mentioned."

Ortiz is talking, of course, about the National League Cy Young Award. And the people he has talked to have not steered him wrong. For Ortiz to win the Cy this season would be an upset of major proportions. That -- historically speaking -- may be an upset in itself.

Now, you could make a pretty good argument for Ortiz. He has more wins than anyone in the league -- 19 -- and will have more wins than anyone at the season's end. He'll end up with, in all likelihood, at least 20 of them. Maybe more.

He has the highest winning percentage in the NL, too, considering he's lost only six games. Opponents are hitting only .225 off him, one of the best marks in the league among starters.

He hasn't missed a single start. He won eight in a row at one point. And the Braves, by the way, are headed to the postseason, thanks largely to Ortiz.

The problem -- ah, yes, you knew that was coming -- is his ERA. It's not exactly astronomical. But it's not the kind of ERA that voters like to see with their Cy choices.

Ortiz has a 3.82 ERA. That's high.

There hasn't been an NL Cy Young winner with an ERA over 3.00 since Steve Carlton won it with a 3.10 ERA in 1982. La Marr Hoyt of the Chicago White Sox holds the all-time high ERA for a Cy Young winner. He had a 3.66 ERA when he won the 1983 American League award.

And ERA isn't even the biggest problem Ortiz has. Ortiz is having the best year of his short career -- he broke in with the San Francisco Giants in 1998 -- and it comes when a closer, for Pete's sake, is having maybe the best year ever for a reliever.

Eric Gagne of the Los Angeles Dodgers has not blown a regular-season save all year (he has 50). His numbers are positively sick. I mean, 126 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings. Except for that ugly blip in the All-Star Game, he has been unhittable all season long.

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Still, Gagne is a relief pitcher -- those guys have their own award, you know -- and Ortiz is a starter. Gagne will throw, maybe, 85 or 90 innings. Ortiz will throw more than twice that many.

It hardly seems fair.

"It doesn't matter to me. I'm not worried about all that stuff. I don't want to be caught up in all that," Ortiz insists. "I just want to pitch and whatever happens happens. It's been a lot easier dealing with it that way."

The question, when you get right down to it, is an old one. Should relievers be considered for the Cy Young Award? They've won it before. Eight times. The last time a reliever won the Cy was in 1992.

But, really, pitting relievers and starters against each other for the same award is kind of an apples and oranges thing, isn't it?

"Exactly," Ortiz says. "Believe me, relievers are very important. [Ortiz has needed them in every one of his starts. He doesn't have a complete game.] But you can have 75 appearances and pitch 75 innings.

"I think innings matter. Not necessarily appearances, but innings."

Ortiz isn't lobbying for starters over relievers for the award. He certainly isn't lobbying to be considered over Gagne.

But facts are facts, and starters and relievers are two different animals.

Some might argue that Ortiz is not even the best starter in the NL. Again, the ERA thing comes back to bite him. The Chicago Cubs' Mark Prior (15-5) has a 2.41 ERA, almost a run and a half lower than Ortiz. Los Angeles' Hideo Nomo, who also has 15 wins, has a 2.88 ERA. Montreal's Livan Hernandez (15-8) has a 2.94 ERA.

But, facts being facts, Ortiz has more wins than any of those guys -- they're all tied for second in wins behind him -- and a better winning percentage than any of them. He's going to be the league's only 20-game winner.

That ought to count for something.

With Gagne out there, though, and that barely sub-4.00 ERA, 20 or so wins don't figure to be nearly enough. Ortiz stands to be just the 13th 20-game winner in baseball history to be beat out by a reliever for the Cy Young. In '92, Oakland's Dennis Eckersley beat out three of them (Jack Morris, Kevin Brown and Jack McDowell).

"There's not too many guys out there who do special things that are noticed around the league. And it has to be something special -- like real special -- for people to take notice," Ortiz says.

"It's pretty amazing what [Gagne] has done. Now, someone has to decide: Has a reliever accomplished something special enough to be considered? You can have that argument all day long. This year is maybe one of those occasions."

The decision, it seems pretty clear, already has been made.

And Ortiz, like it or not, already knows the answer.

John Donovan is a senior writer for SI.com.