Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant AP

Preseason predictions?

Hate 'em.

Like Jim Tom Pinch in Dan Jenkins' classic, You Gotta Play Hurt, I've never understood why people think sportswriters would know who is going to win a game (or an award) before it happens.

"Who's going to win the race?" Pinch is asked before the Kentucky Derby.

"A horse," he replies.

If any NBA writer had a crystal ball, he or she would be sitting in a swanky Las Vegas penthouse spinning it on his or her finger like Pistol Pete and raking in the cash.

Trust me, it's not the case.

Trying to pick who's going to win the NBA title eight months in advance is pure guesswork.

Like estimating the number of TV tabloid reporters in the Lakers' locker room.

Or the number of Ts Rasheed Wallace is going to ring up.

Or how long before LeBron James learns to knock down the 15-footer.

MAILBAG Marty Burns will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his mailbag. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

Even if you spend 24 hours a day studying stats and watching old game tapes, it's impossible to know. The problem is, things can start out looking so good on paper ... then, wham! Fate comes over weak side and doles out a flagrant II.

Just ask Grant Hill.

Or Kobe Bryant.

But as much as I loathe predicting a champion, it is the start of the NBA 2003-04 season. And this is the Internet. Thus, I am required by law to provide an answer for all those people seeking a quick, bite-sized take (and an excuse to blow off a little more work).

So -- with some help from my good friend Jim Tom -- here are my best guesses for who will take home the hardware.

NBA Champ

Lakers. Sure, Kobe's criminal case could be a distraction. But Phil Jackson is used to dealing with off-court issues and knows how to turn them into unifying forces for a team. The bottom line is, Shaq is still the game's most dominant force when he's active and Karl Malone and Gary Payton are major upgrades at L.A.'s two weakest positions. Defensively, they should help the Lakers get back to their old stifling ways. They'll need Kobe to get back in good shape -- physically and mentally -- by the playoffs, but barring a disaster on that front, the Lakers will recapture the throne.

MVP

Shaquille O'Neal, Lakers. It's hard to believe he's won only one of these in his career. Motivated to get back to the top, Shaq looks primed to have a monster year. With Malone and Payton alongside, he should be even freer to wreak havoc at both ends. Meanwhile, he won't have to worry about splitting the MVP votes with Bryant. Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett and Tracy McGrady will give Shaq a serious run for the award, but Duncan has won it twice in a row while T-Mac and KG have never led their respective teams to a playoff series victory.

Rookie of the Year

Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets. As the go-to guy for a Nuggets team that expects to play at a fast pace, he'll get a chance to put up big numbers. Plus, he'll benefit from a backlash against the LeBron hype machine. Toronto's Chris Bosh, Miami's Dwyane Wade and Washington's Jarvis Hayes also could make a run.

Coach of the Year

Phil Jackson, Lakers. Like Shaq, he's won the award only once before. Voters will see it as an opportunity to correct the historical record and reward him for navigating L.A. through the Bryant minefield and the chemistry issues involved in incorporating two more Hall of Fame egos.

Sixth Man

Antawn Jamison, Mavs. He plays for a high-profile contending team, which is a big help in this particular category. Plus, like Denver's Anthony, he'll get a chance to put up big numbers since the Mavs will light up scoreboards. Provided he doesn't end up starting too many games, Jamison will edge out San Antonio's Malik Rose for this honor.

Defensive Player of the Year

Ron Artest, Pacers. Often this award goes to a leading shot-blocker (Dikembe Mutombo) or rebounder (Ben Wallace), but Artest's on-ball defense draws raves from coaches around the league. Plus, Big Ben has won two in a row. Provided Artest doesn't break his hand punching a scorer's table or miss too many games on suspension, he's got a great chance to nab the award this season.

Marty Burns covers pro basketball for SI.com.