BALTIMORE -- It's strange when the outcomes of Week 14 of the NFL season have the biggest effect on determining the playoff map. But that will be the legacy of the 2003 regular season. Chapters were written, stories were capped, divisions were decided with three weeks to go in the regular season.

''Nothing is over yet,'' Ravens coach Brian Billick, still wearing several layers of clothing on an insanely windy and cold day, told me as we spoke in his office Sunday night. His team had just taken charge of the AFC North, but Billick wasn't ready to admit it. "We don't control anything yet. What we've done is put ourselves in position to be in the position to control the division. Nothing more.''

Billick won't say it, but I will: Baltimore has all but locked up a home playoff game in the first weekend of 2004. With a one-game lead over Cincinnati -- and matchups against Oakland (3-10), Cleveland (4-8) and Pittsburgh (5-8) remaining -- the Ravens have a clear shot at being a third or fourth seed and hosting a wild-card game now, particularly with the Bengals playing at St. Louis in two weeks.

A look at how Sunday cleared up the picture in most of the divisions:

AFC EAST. It's over. The Patriots clinched the division with their 12-0 win over Miami, and New England also crept ahead of Kansas City in the race for home field through the playoffs. The Pats are 8-1 in conference (11-2 overall) with three games left against AFC foes (Jags, at Jets, Bills), while Kansas City lost its second conference game yesterday in Denver. Just watch. Patriots coach Bill Belichick will use the next three games as playoff games, because he knows how vital home field advantage is.

AFC SOUTH. With three games left, Indianapolis (10-3) has a one-game lead over Tennessee, but that's really a 1.5-game advantage because the Colts swept the Titans in their head-to-head meetings. With Atlanta, Denver and Houston left on the schedule, it's hard to picture Indy losing two more games.

AFC WEST. Kansas City (11-2 overall; 10-2 in conference) will clinch the division when the meek Lions creep into Arrowhead this Sunday, but the Chiefs probably lost home field advantage yesterday. If I'm them, I'm pretty worried about a potential first-round matchup with the Colts, now that Edgerrin James (27 carries for 95 yards and two touchdowns against the top rushing defense in football, Tennessee's) is back on the beam.

AFC WILD CARD: The second-place team in the AFC South, probably Tennessee (9-4), is a lock for the fifth seed. Denver and Miami, both 8-5, are the leaders in the clubhouse for the sixth seed, but storm clouds hover over the Miami bid. The Dolphins are 5-5 in AFC games, Denver 7-3.

NFC EAST. It seems like the Eagles haven't lost since Donovan McNabb was playing backup guard for the Syracuse Orangemen. They clinched a playoff berth Sunday and took a two-game lead in the division with their 36-10 trouncing of the Cowboys. Now they have to keep the pressure on in Miami Monday night to secure home field in the NFC.

NFC SOUTH. Try as they might, the 8-5 Panthers (whose remaining slate is at Arizona, Detroit, at Giants) probably won't be able to give the division away, though Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme (two interceptions Sunday against Atlanta, including one returned for the game-winning TD in OT) looks like he's trying to do just that. New Orleans could have made up ground in the division Sunday by beating the Buccaneers, but the Saints (6-7) apparently can't stand prosperity. How in the name of Tom Benson do you -- playing with everything on the line for your team, at home and against a foe you've beaten three times in a row when the game mattered to both of you -- lose to a Tampa Bay team that's simply playing out the string? Something stinks in New Orleans.

NFC NORTH. Just when we wanted to stick a fork in the Vikings, they get the biggest holiday gift of all: Seattle, on the road. The 8-5 Vikes have a one-game lead over the Pack (as a result of their Thanksgiving-day loss to the Lions), but the most important stat of all is intradivision record right now: Minnesota is 4-1 with a game at Chicago Sunday to close out their NFC North schedule, and Green Bay is 4-2. A win Sunday gives Minnesota the tiebreaker edge it will probably need over the Packers.

NFC WEST. A victory Monday would give the Rams a two-game lead over Seattle with three to play and the Seahawks headed to St. Louis this weekend. It's as good as over.

NFC WILD CARD. I'm guessing Seattle and Dallas. Both are 6-3 in the conference, and Green Bay, the next-closest candidate, is 7-5.

I'm not going to project any further than the first week of the playoffs right now, but I pray Sports Illustrated sends me to an AFC game. The conference has some potentially golden matchups: Tennessee at Baltimore, Denver at Indianapolis. In the NFC, the crystal ball tells me it will be Seattle at Minnesota, Dallas at Carolina. Zzzzzzzzzz. Wake me if Green Bay runs the table and gets in.

Offensive Player of the Week

Denver running back Clinton Portis. With his team's season on the line, he single-handedly pushed the Broncos into the driver's seat for the sixth and final AFC playoff spot. Strange. Portis was contained in the first half, gaining just 30 yards. He ran for 188 in the third and fourth, including his third (59 yards), fourth (28 yards) and fifth (53 yards) touchdown runs of the day. Five touchdowns, 218 yards. Nice afternoon.

Defensive Player of the Week

(tie) Baltimore pass-rushers Peter Boulware, Adalius Thomas and Terrell Suggs, who each had two sacks in the Ravens' 31-13 rout of the Bengals. "You see what the athleticism of Suggs does for this defense,'' Boulware told me after the game. Yes, I did. On nickel downs, Suggs forces teams to block him with one man and chip him with another, often a back. Thomas suffered a fractured elbow in the game, which is a shame because he's been playing well as another pocket-collapser. "This is the best we've rushed the passer in a long time,'' Boulware said.

Special Teams Player of the Week

New England P Brooks Barnard. In the first game of his career -- the Pats signed him last week as a replacement for Ken Walter, who was cut -- Barnard punted 10 times for a 36.5-yard average. Pretty lousy -- except when you consider that he made his professional debut in the game that would decide the AFC East title, with a 20-25 mph wind swirling, and with snow coming down for the first third of the game. Pressure? What pressure? In the fourth quarter, with the Pats winning 3-0 and just wanting to preserve field position, Barnard, a Maryland grad, pooched a 36-yarder out of bounds at the Miami four-yard line. On the next play, Jay Fiedler threw the game away, as his pass went right to Pats linebacker Ted Bruschi, who rumbled in for a touchdown.

Coach of the Week

Indianapolis' Tony Dungy. There is so much to admire about Dungy as a man, and just as much as a football coach. Tennessee was at home, with its season on the line, and the Colts had been spotty in recent weeks. Disastrous loss at Jacksonville. Embarrassing defensive performance in beating the Jets. Barely edged Buffalo. Lost to New England. But the Colts defense held Tennessee to 93 yards rushing and 327 yards overall -- tolerable numbers in a big road game. Dungy's diligence, and imbuing his team with a belief that a game is never out of reach, led this team to a season sweep of the Titans.

Goat of the Week

The guts of the Kansas City defense. You guys will have to live with that 508-yard scar for a long time. In one week, the Chiefs went from home field edge in the AFC playoffs to singing that old Creedence Clearwater Revival song, Who'll Stop the Run?  

Stat of the Week

Denver averaged 8.44 yards per carry (32 rushes for 270 yards) against Kansas City Sunday. The Broncos have been playing football for four decades now, and they've never had that high a per-carry average in any game in their history.

Perhaps this is part of what's wrong with the BCS:

On Oct. 11, Oklahoma beat Texas 65-13.

Oklahoma finished 12-1. Texas finished 10-2.

This morning's New York Times computer rankings, a component of the BCS rankings, has Texas fourth and Oklahoma fifth.

"This guy Vick made some unbelievable plays with his legs. It was like Pop Warner football tonight.''

--Carolina safety Mike Minter after Michael Vick scrambled for 141 yards in the Falcons' 20-14 win.

For two hours and 20 minutes late Sunday night, in the café car of the Metroliner from Baltimore to Newark, I listened to two guys talk about HMOs. They were just guys, it seemed, headed to New York on business, and they didn't talk about the NFL playoffs race or women or how rotten this snow was. One of them had a a spreadsheet out and for 10 or 15 minutes made the point that you could actually go to this dentist in Rockville and he won't even make you pay the deductible! And the vision plan. Oh my God, the vision plan! You can pick your own eye doctor, and, according to Health Plan Man, "You don't even have to get the cheap frames. Look at these frames! I got these in the 2-for-1 deal and I would have gotten them even if I had to pay full price for them!''

I decided right then that if My Maker sends me to the deep south for the afterlife, Hell will be an everlasting discussion of HMOs.

Baltimore general manager Ozzie Newsome, who in just a year and a half, has engineered the rebuilding of the Ravens from salary-cap disaster to AFC North frontrunner.

MMQB: How have you guys been able to turn things around so quickly?

Newsome: In the cap era, things happen pretty quickly. Look at the last four Super Bowl winners, and where they were the year before. The Rams were, what, 4-12? We were 8-8. The Patriots were 4-12 or 5-11 before they won. The salary cap makes our jobs harder. Things happen with the cap every year that teach us lessons. The biggest lesson is you've got to draft well. That's what we've tried to do around here.

MMQB: What are the two or three moves that have been key to making your team competitive?

Newsome: I'd say one would have to be the (1999) trade with Atlanta, in which we received their first-round pick in the 2000 draft. We traded our second pick that year for the Falcons' first pick the next year, and they ended up struggling, so we got a high pick, and we turned it into Jamal Lewis. That's worked out great, obviously. Then I'd have to say our draft [in 1996], when we selected a true left tackle (Jonathan Ogden) and a middle linebacker for the future (Ray Lewis), both in the first round.

MMQB: What do you think about your friend Marvin Lewis turning the Bengals around so quickly?

Newsome: This time last year, I was admonishing him. I said, "Why don't you take the Michigan State job? That's a great job. It'll get you ready to coach in the NFL. You've got to take that job." All he said was, "I want to coach in the NFL." He had the mindset that he didn't care if it was in Cincinnati, where most guys had failed. He knew he'd succeed. And I knew he'd make some changes and win some games, but honestly, I thought it would take longer. I thought the Bengals would win six games, and if he won six games in Cincinnati, I thought the city would name a street after him.

First, an explanation. Many of you wrote with varying opinions about my THG story last week. Some of you don't care. Some of you chided me for looking the other way while a new steroid invaded the football world, like Andrew Sharpe, of Sydney, Australia. "I find your stance on steroids and drug testing unbelievable, contemptuous and downright shocking.'' Sharpe wrote. "Remember, THG was designed specifically to give the results of steroids without being found through conventional testing.''

To that I say THG was not on the NFL's list of banned substances when it was ingested, and at least one player that I know of asked the supplier point-blank if it was a steroid or simply a performance-enhancer and was told it categorically was not a steroid. That may be naive, but what I don't see is a willful attempt by the players to defraud the testing procedures. I see a willful attempt to get stronger by taking a supplement that was not illegal.

The final point e-mailed to me was a question: Why would I waste the top of my column on THG rather than real football news? Two reasons. One: This is going to be an ongoing story, and an issue that will cause the players to get ticked off at the NFLPA. Two, and this, quite frankly, was the most pressing issue: I had two assignments for the magazine last week. I had to go to Baltimore to watch video of a play with Ogden to write a sidebar story for the package we did in the magazine on offensive linemen this week; and I had to go to St. Louis to cover the Vikes and Rams. In a week when I have multiple assignments for SI, it's essential I write some of my MMQB words early, and so this is what I decided to do. Anyway, now that I've bored you silly, here are your electronic thoughts:

IS SPURRIER HEADED FOR TOBACCO ROAD? From Korey Harris of Montgomery, Ala.: "I'm a die-hard UNC fan and until you mentioned it, I just blew off the Steve Spurrier rumors as just talk from hometown newspaper hopefuls. What have you heard about UNC and Spurrier?''

Just this: A coach I trust mentioned it to me as the best guess as to where Spurrier would go, plus a high-profile college coach who knows Spurrier told a visiting scout this fall that he thought Spurrier's next job would be with the Heels. That's it. As I said on HBO last week, it's my best guess. Nothing scientific.

THE MATERIALISM DEBATE, PART I. From Andrew Murphy of Huntington Beach, Calif.: "I would like to explain the 'other side' regarding waiting in line at 5 a.m. for a store to open. I am a father of four soccer-playing children, ages 11-17. We can't afford many of the 'luxuries' except when they are on sale. I don't feel we are overly materialistic; we just just try to do the best for our family.''

Good point. Glad you made it. But I still wonder: How many holiday gifts wouldn't be on the shelves at 11 a.m. the day after Thanksgiving that are the shelves at 6 a.m.? What's the need of getting up at 2 a.m. to do this?

THE MATERIALISM DEBATE, PART II: From Jeff of Uzbekistan: "Have you never, ever sat in the cold or wet weather while waiting for hours in line for the chance to buy a ticket to a concert?''

I don't consider waiting in line for hours to do something I can do 363 days a year, day or night, an apt comparison to buying concert tickets. But thanks for checking in from Uzbekistan.

THE JOY OF SACKS. From Will Ferguson of Skokie, Ill.: "Regarding the 'all-time' sack record, why hasn't the NFL gone back and analyzed old game film to count sacks?''

Good question. The reason is pretty simple. The NFL records before about 1960 are shoddy, and film does not exist for all games before about 1965. Now, a man named John Turney from New Mexico has done an exhaustive study of sacks, going back through old play-by-play sheets from NFL games, but even he can't be sure about sack totals back in, say, 1949 because of incomplete record-keeping. The bottom line is, we will never know for certain if the current record is the actual record, though it probably is.

YOU KNOW, YOU REALLY ARE CLEVER. From Fred Loranis of Montreal: "'God is weary of smiting the striped ones.' Best line ever!"

You know what they say about a blind squirrel occasionally finding a nut, Fred. Thanks.

YOU'VE GOT THE RAMS ALL WRONG. From Ben of St. Louis: "King, you've got to be kidding me. You're worried about the Rams defense? You were at the game. Did you miss the sacks? The interception? The forced fumble for a touchdown?''

I saw it all. I also saw a defense that gave up 353 yards in Minnesota's first eight possessions over the first three quarters, when the game was still competitive. That's 44 yards per possession. Not good. In the last eight quarters, against a bad Arizona offense and a good Minnesota offense, the Rams have given up 823 yards. Are you happy giving up 103 yards per quarter? You shouldn't be.

A SHOUTOUT TO GREGG EASTERBROOK. From Paul Mortensen of Plymouth, Minn.: "The last couple of weeks you've included haiku in your column. Is that a tribute to fired ESPN Page 2 columnist Gregg Easterbrook (author of Tuesday Morning Quarterback) or just a coincidence?''

A bit of both. I love TMQ, now on NFL.com, and I must say I have loved Easterbrook's use of haiku. But you know what prompted me to use it a couple of weeks ago, and then last week? Exhaustion. It was the easiest way to finish the columns. Even at 4 a.m., 5-7-5 is easier than a coherent thought. But I probably wouldn't have thought to use it unless I saw it in his column. So I must credit him for the idea.

1. I think these are my quick-hit thoughts of the NFL weekend:

a. You're doing a great job, Jack Del Rio. But I can't understand for the life of me why you keep picking fights with Mark Brunell. You're not going to convince Jags fans not to love him.

b. Keep doing what you're doing, Merril Hoge. Calling out Chiefs safety Jerome Woods this weekend on Edge NFL Matchup was a stroke of Randy Moss-like genius. Hoge ripped Woods for "chicken-winging'' a pass-rush block against David Boston, "who hasn't blocked anyone all year,'' last week against San Diego.

c. I'm not sure how to take the six-touchdown day (four passing, two running) Jeff Garcia had against Arizona. It could have been an audition to play somewhere else in 2004. If I'm Dennis Erickson, I want to see what I've got in Tim Rattay for one or two more games before I determine Garcia's fate.

d. Aaron Brooks has fumbled 13 times in 13 games. I sense a trend.

e. Maybe the Bucs can't stop the run so well, but Deuce McAllister's streak of 100-yard games is dead after nine. He had three yards or less on 17 of his 22 carries Sunday and finished with 69 total yards.

f. In the three games he has played since breaking a bone in his right leg, Travis Henry has 359 yards on 80 carries. "We need more like him,'' said Bills GM Tom Donahoe.

g. I don't think Ted Cottrell or Kevin Gilbride will be able to save their jobs.

2. I think I might be slightly paranoid about this, but follow along with me. Before last week's games, I called Mike Pereira, the NFL's director of officiating and a standup guy, to ask about the gross difference in penalties called between the league's 17 officiating crews. For instance: Through 10 games, the crew led by referee Walt Anderson had called 186 accepted penalties, Gerry Austin's crew has called 112. Over a four-game stretch beginning in Week 3, Johnny Grier's crew stepped off 32, 22, 25 and 21 penalties -- the most infractions in each of those weeks. I saw Anderson's crew throw 34 flags at Philly two weeks ago, 26 of which were accepted.

Pereira told me he would be concerned if the percentage of incorrect calls by those crews were high, but they aren't. Fine. What happened last weekend convinced me that somebody in the league office talked to Anderson and Grier. Of the 16 games played last weekend, guess which two had the fewest penalties? Grier's, with seven, and Anderson's, with eight. Did you catch the Anderson crew's performance last Monday night? Early in the game, tripping was called on a Tennessee running play, and at the end of the play, a fight broke out between the Titans and Jets. Anderson announced the flag was being picked up, though the ABC replay clearly showed tripping by a Titans lineman. And no matching unsportsmanlike conduct penalties were issued following the skirmish. Incredible. The Anderson crew, somehow, went from liberal to arch-conservative in the space of one week.

3. I think Nick Saban is the best college football coach out there right now, and though LSU is going to end up signing him to an extension sometime soon for in the range of $2.3 million a year, NFL teams are nuts if they don't make a serious run at him. An owner might say, "I'm not paying some guy who's never been an NFL head coach and has been out of the league for almost a decade (Saban was a Cleveland Browns assistant from 1991-94) $3.5 million a year. I would respond:"But you'd pay a skill player with a 50-percent chance of washing out in free agency a $6 million bonus?" If you can get a great coach who can turn a program around, isn't he worth five percent of what the networks pay you in TV money each year?

4. I think Jacksonville might be good. I almost put the Jags in the Fine Fifteen. Keep these things in mind: The Jags have allowed 33 points in their last four games, they have two hellacious pluggers in the middle in Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, and Fred Taylor has started 29 games in a row. Remember when he was known as Fragile Fred? Those days might be over. The Jags will play New England tough in Foxboro on Sunday. There were, however, 33,000 empty seats at Alltel Stadium yesterday, the most for a game in franchise history.

5. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

a. I have to hand it to the authors of the first-ever MMQB parody, which can be found at: footballoutsiders.com/mmqbhomage.php?view=message&mid=92&showcomment=1&vmid=92

Excellent job, from the fawning lead on a hunting trip with Brett Favre, to the sly reference to the Tejada ball, to this non-football thought: "I finally saw Brother Bear. I'd give it a B-plus. Now, the book was an A-plus, a masterpiece, one of the best books written during my lifetime. A powerful, uplifting message about friendship and community. Rick Moranis is one of the greats.'' But they saved the best for the sixth-grade volleyball note of the week. Nice work, whoever you are, even if I'm the only one who gets half the stuff.

b. Coffeenerdness: Finished the column this morning with an egg-nog latte and a cinnamon roll and thought: "This is work?''

c. Larry King dot-dot-dot note of the week: There's not a lot better than a couple of beers and some Legal Sea Foods clam chowder and crispy fried shrimp the night before a game that will decide a division title, even if the waiter is constantly late and brings the appetizer after the main course.

d. CSI is an incredible TV show. I've watched it three times now, and each time I finish the show leaning forward, being wowed.

e. Could someone with half a brain tell me why the Boston Red Sox are throwing Todd Walker out with the garbage? The guy's one of the best six or eight second basemen in baseball, and his defense isn't as bad as Grady Little thought. Clutch, clutch player.

6. I think these were my quick-hit thoughts on Saturday afternoon, as I sat in my room on the 10th floor of the Marriott Inner Harbor, the TV to my left and center field at Camden Yards a long fungo fly to my right:

a. Tim Brando on CBS, following Kentucky's 52-50 win over UCLA: "Kentucky beating UCLA by the scantest of margin.'' That would have been 52-51, Tim. Not 52-50.

b. How can you not love Army-Navy football? It's the one contest of the year where, except to the insiders, pageantry means more than the game.

c. I like the grit and arm of Brady Quinn. There's not a lot more to like right now about Fighting Irish football after that 38-12 loss to Syracuse. It'd be nice to have an offensive line, Ty Willingham.

d. There is no perfect solution for the college football national championship game. Oklahoma, LSU and USC each have one loss. USC fell to unranked Cal, 34-31 in overtime. LSU lost to 16th-ranked Florida, 19-7. Oklahoma was beaten by then 13th-ranked Kansas State, 35-7. Let's analyze the losses, and the strength of wins. Oklahoma allowed 520 yards and lost by four touchdowns in the championship game of its league at a neutral site. USC and LSU had competitive losses, also to league rivals. Advantage: USC and LSU. As for the wins, Southern Cal had one win over a top-25 team, No. 15 Washington State. Oklahoma had two, over No. 6 Texas and No. 22 Oklahoma State. LSU had three -- over No. 5 Georgia (twice) and No. 17 Ole Miss. Advantage: LSU (big) and Oklahoma. I know the computers don't factor when a loss happened (only the pollsters do) but I don't see how the magnitude and the timing of the Oklahoma loss can't be a factor in the decision. As unfair as it is -- every year the BCS is badly flawed, but unless you're going to have a playoff, which I think is maniacal and would make a further mockery of the concept of these "student athletes'' -- my vote is for Oklahoma and LSU. As dominant as USC has been in winning its last seven by 20 or more, Oklahoma and LSU played tougher schedules and, minus one blip apiece, dominated them.

e. I honestly think Nebraska alum Trev Alberts would make a great coach for the Cornhuskers. The guy's smart enough to put an excellent staff together, and there would be no better PR man and pride-restorer for that program.

f. Brad Nessler is good. He speaks his mind more than most play-by-play guys.

7. I think if I had to pick the most underrated kicker in the NFL I'd choose Ryan Longwell. He hit all four of his attempts (for 24, 38, 35 and 35 yards, respectively) Sunday in Green Bay amid 35-degree weather and 16-mph winds. He's 19 of 21 this season. "And it's dead center every time,'' said his coach, Mike Sherman.

8. I think, speaking of the Pack, they handle Brian Urlacher pretty well. Bears are 1-7 in Urlacher's eight career outings against Green Bay, and he has one interception, two sacks and no forced fumbles.

9. I think FOX has quietly made a very interesting hire in Bill Romanowski. He'll be the color man on the Carolina-Arizona game Sunday. "I'm feeling it out,'' he said. I think he'll be great, as long as he remembers the most important thing about TV: You're on this side now, Billy. No sacred cows.

10. I think I can't use this as my quote of the week, but I have to get this in somewhere. At Legal Sea Foods in Baltimore's Inner Harbor Saturday night, dinner mate Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com decided he would simply have two or three bowls of the restaurant's world-famous clam chowder instead of chowder and a dinner entree. And so, straight-faced, he asked our waiter: "Do you give free refills of chowder, like coffee?''

1. New England (11-2). Half of New England can stop e-mailing me now. I have put your beloved Pats in the only spot you'll tolerate. The team deserves top billing, by the way.

2. Philadelphia (10-3). What do my top two teams have in common? The 41st player on their respective rosters is better than the 32nd player on almost everyone else's. If you don't think that's vitally important in the 2003 NFL landscape, you're not watching the games.

3. St. Louis (9-3). I would like to see Marc Bulger play a low-error game on the road, in so-so weather. It'll be about 38 degrees, with winds swirling at 12 mph on the Cleveland lakefront Monday night, my Doppler pals tell me.

4. Indianapolis (10-3). That was a great win, at The Coliseum, outdoors, with the division title on the line.

5. Baltimore (8-5). If the Ravens play down the stretch like they did yesterday, they will be in the conference championship game.

	MAILBAG Peter King will answer your questions each week in Monday Morning Quarterback: Tuesday Edition. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

6. Kansas City (11-2). I've been saying it for a couple of weeks now: You don't win a Super Bowl with a run defense like that. And I don't care how desperate Denver was yesterday. Giving the Broncos 508 yards ... I mean, how do you fix that, Dick Vermeil?

7. Tennessee (9-4). For some reason I just think Jeff Fisher will have his team straightened out by wild-card weekend, which it now appears he has to do.

8. Denver (8-5). Butch Davis drafted William Green instead of Portis because the Browns' coach thought he needed a big back to play in the Cleveland elements. I bet Butch shook his head a few times Sunday while Portis was putting on one of the shows of the year.

9. Miami (8-5). Well, it's official. If Miami makes the playoffs, the Dolphins are going to have to win three January road games in 15 days in order to reach the Super Bowl. I'm joining the Dolfans in the Skeptical Club

(Psst. Anybody out there got another NFC team they like?)

10. Minnesota (8-5). This pick is as good a guess as any. Not sure if the Vikes slipped a mickey into the Seahawks' Gatorade yesterday, or if they actually played well on defense.

11. Carolina (8-5). I'm not sure how many any of you stayed up to see the end of the Michael Vick Bowl last night, but here's what happened: 14-14, late fourth quarter, Atlanta driving so Jay Feely could miss another field goal, and Vick throws a pick with 14 seconds left in regulation. Overtime. Carolina wins the toss -- which, these days, is trouble for the opponent because the majority of times it seems it doesn't ever see the ball again. Third play of OT, Jake Delhomme throws a pick, Kevin Mathis returns it 32 yards to paydirt for the ballgame.

12. Cincinnati (7-6). "I don't care what happens tomorrow afternoon,'' Marvin Lewis told me Saturday night. "We aren't going back to where we were. Those days are over.'' I believe him. If Jon Kitna had any protection yesterday, it would have been a close ballgame.

13. Dallas (8-5). After 19- and 26-point losses the last two weeks, Cowboyphiles, remember this: You'd have traded your 12-year-old Ford pickup for 8-5 back in August.

14. Seattle (8-5). I'm in the Gridiron Guru League playoffs this upcoming weekend. I'm matched against against CBS' Jim Nantz in the first round. I was roundly jeered by my fellow league members for benching Matt Hasselbeck two weeks ago when he played at Baltimore in favor of Doug Flutie as the Seattle QB went on to throw for five touchdowns. Of course I'd play Hasselbeck over Flutie this weekend. In the immortal words of New York Post columnist Steve Serby (for the second time this season), that's why they call me Mr. Loser.

15. Green Bay (7-6). But I have no conviction about it.

It's hard to like Cleveland right now. It really is. I work with some Browns fans at HBO, and they're thoroughly disgusted. I don't think they'll throw in the towel tonight, but I also think they don't have the weapons to keep up with the Rams, even on the cold lakefront. Rams, 27-13.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Monday Morning Quarterback appears in this space every week.