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Trade Analysis

Keeping track of the 2004-05 offseason deals

Posted: Monday November 29, 2004 5:00PM; Updated: Friday February 11, 2005 5:44PM
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Orioles trade for Sosa
ORIOLES GET:
Sammy Sosa -- RF
$12.5 million 
 CUBS GET:
Jerry Hairston Jr. -- 2B
David Crouthers -- RHP
Mike Fontenot -- 2B
2004 Avg. OBP Slg. HR RBI BB SO
Sosa .253 .332 .517 35 80 56 133
2004 Avg. OBP Slg. HR RBI BB SO
Hairston .303 .378 .397 2 24 29 29
THE BOTTOM LINE
The only way this trade works for the Orioles is if the 36-year-old Sammy Sosa returns to his superstar form. Otherwise, it's a glorified P.R. move that could backfire if they sign him to any kind of extension beyond 2005. The Cubs did well to get three valuable pieces for Sosa. Jerry Hairston Jr. gives them defense, on-base skills and speed, three things the disappointing 2004 Cubs lacked considerably. David Crouthers, 25, has a power arm and could end up being a useful reliever in the big leagues. Mike Fontenot, 24, might have a future as an offensive second baseman. All told, Chicago saves about $12.5 million in this trade, so now the onus falls on its front office to replace the 74 home runs lost from the departures of Moises Alou and Sosa.

Dodgers' overhaul continues
DIAMONDBACKS GET:
Shawn Green -- RF
$10 million  
 DODGERS GET:
Dioner Navarro -- C
William Juarez -- RHP
Danny Muegge -- RHP
Beltran Perez -- RHP
2004 Avg. OBP Slg. HR RBI BB SO
Green .266 .352 .459 28 86 71 114
2004* Avg. OBP Slg. HR RBI BB SO
Navarro .250 .316 .360 1 16 14 17
* Class AAA Columbus
THE BOTTOM LINE
If you are having trouble keeping track of Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta's deals, you are not alone. His latest move in the overhaul of the returning NL West champions has the Dodgers paying a division rival $10 million to take Shawn Green, who is no longer a dominant power hitter but still a useful corner outfielder. Catcher Dioner Navarro, a 20-year-old who comes with the commonplace baggage of being a former Yankees prospect, appears to be the Dodgers' catcher of the future. Navarro's plate discipline is his main attraction for the Moneyball-minded DePodesta. The other three pitchers, all 23, are at least a year or two away from contributing at the major league level. FULL STORY

Yankees land Big Unit -- finally
YANKEES GET:
Randy Johnson -- LHP
 
 DIAMONDBACKS GET:
Javier Vazquez -- RHP
Brad Halsey -- LHP
Dioner Navarro -- C
Cash
2004 W-L ERA IP H BB SO HR
Johnson 16-14 2.60 245.2 177 44 290 18
2004 W-L ERA IP H BB SO HR
Vazquez 14-10 4.91 198 195 60 150 33
Halsey 1-3 6.47 32 41 14 25 4
THE BOTTOM LINE
This is much like the Alex Rodriguez trade last offseason in that the Yankees get a superstar name but only improve themselves marginally. The difference between Alfonso Soriano and Rodriguez wasn't steep enough to justify adding another mega contract, and you could argue the same for the upgrade from Vazquez to Big Unit. Vazquez is no Hall of Famer, but up until his second-half slump last season Vazquez was an elite power pitcher in his own right. In any given season -- in any given postseason start, which is all the Yankees care about -- Vazquez can match Johnson or come close. But at least the Yankees are getting better from this trade. The D'backs' best hope for contention next season was to have Johnson on the mound for 35 starts. Trading a player of his caliber should net a ton of young, cheap, outstanding talent. Instead, they get the expensive Vazquez and a couple of Yankees prospects who are, by definition, overrated. Regardless of what the D'backs do with those pieces -- a trade for Los Angeles' Shawn Green is also pending -- this will not end well for Arizona.

Cardinals land elite starting pitcher
CARDINALS GET:
Mark Mulder -- LHP
 
 ATHLETICS GET:
Danny Haren -- RHP
Kiko Calero -- RHP
Daric Barton -- C
2004 W-L ERA IP H BB SO HR
Mulder 17-8 4.43 225.2 223 83 140 25
2004 W-L ERA IP H BB SO HR
Haren 3-3 4.50 46 45 17 32 4
Calero 3-1 2.78 45.1 27 10 47 5
THE BOTTOM LINE
This isn't going to do wonders for A's season-ticket sales, but the deal makes sense for the long-term viability of the franchise. Mark Mulder was 5-6 with a 6.13 ERA in the second half. He's due to make $6 million next season, which makes a lot more sense for the Cardinals to pay than the low-budget A's. If famed St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan can figure out what is wrong with Mulder, if anything at all, then the Cardinals will have one of the better staffs in the big leagues. Once again, A's GM Billy Beane made sure he got quality, low-priced youngsters in return. Haren hasn't been overly impressive, but Kiko Calero's peripheral stats are outstanding, and Daric Barton batted .313 with 13 home runs and 77 RBIs at Class A Peoria as a 19-year-old last season.

Braves win Hudson sweepstakes
BRAVES GET:
Tim Hudson -- RHP
 
 ATHLETICS GET:
Juan Cruz -- RHP
Dan Meyer -- LHP
Charles Thomas -- OF
2004 W-L ERA IP H BB SO HR
Hudson 12-6 3.53 188.2 194 44 103 8
2004 W-L ERA IP H BB SO HR
Cruz 6-2 2.75 72 59 30 70 7
2004 Avg. OBP Slg. HR RBI BB SO
Thomas .288 .368 .445 7 31 21 45
THE BOTTOM LINE
That sound you are hearing is the Mets, Marlins and Phillies smashing their heads against the wall. The Braves have won 13 consecutive division titles, and this trade paves the way for No. 14. The top of their rotation is Tim Hudson and John Smoltz, followed by Mike Hampton, Horacio Ramirez and John Thomson. That's easily the best in the division. The knee-jerk reaction to this deal is to assume the A's got fleeced, but give GM Billy Beane more credit than that. He got two outstanding young -- and cheap -- pitchers in reliever Juan Cruz and minor leaguer Dan Meyer, and Charles Thomas is a serviceable outfielder.

Brewers add thunder with Lee
Brewers GET:
Carlos Lee -- OF
 
 WHITE SOX GET:
Scott Podsednik -- CF
Luis Vizcaino -- RHP
2004 Avg. OBP Slg. HR RBI BB SO
Lee .305 .366 .525 31 99 54 86
2004 Avg. OBP Slg. HR RBI BB SO
Podsednik .244 .313 .364 12 39 58 105
2004 W-L ERA IP H BB SO HR
Vizcaino 4-4 3.75 72 61 24 63 12
THE BOTTOM LINE
It's been a nice little offseason for the Brewers, who successfully sold high on closer Danny Kolb in a previous deal with Atlanta (for prospect Jose Capellan) and now do the same with Scott Podsednik. In Carlos Lee, the Brewers get a legitimate middle-of-the-order, right-handed bat. Chicago saves a few million bucks in this deal, which might allow them to hunt bigger game later this winter. Podsednik is a speedster who had a terrific year in 2003, slumped last season, and only contributes to Chicago's outfield glut. With the impressive Aaron Rowand firmly planted in center field, don't be surprised if Podsednik gets traded again before Opening Day.

A's swap two lefties for Kendall
ATHLETICS GET:
Jason Kendall -- C
 
 PIRATES GET:
Mark Redman -- LHP
Arthur Rhodes -- LHP
2004 Avg. OBP Slg. HR RBI BB SO
Kendall .319 .399 .390 3 51 60 41
2004 W-L ERA IP H BB SO HR
Redman 11-12 4.71 191 218 68 102 28
Rhodes 9 5.12 38.2 46 21 34 9
THE BOTTOM LINE
This is more like an NBA trade -- an exchange of bad contracts. The Pirates finally get rid of the $21 million owed to Kendall for the next two seasons. The A's discard two mistakes from last winter, when they foolishly gave three-year deals to Redman and Rhodes. Kendall plays above-average defense and gets on base. Redman was sensational in his last NL stint, going 14-9 for the champion Marlins. Rhodes will set up for closer Jose Mesa before getting shopped around as the coveted situational lefty to a contender in July.

Angels get rid of Guillen
NATIONALS GET:
Jose Guillen -- OF
 
 ANGELS GET:
Juan Rivera -- OF
Maicer Izturis -- SS
2004 Avg. OBP Slg. HR RBI BB SO
Guillen .294 .352 .497 27 104 37 92
2004 Avg. OBP Slg. HR RBI BB SO
Rivera .307 .364 .465 12 49 34 45
Izturis .206 .286 .318 1 4 10 20
THE BOTTOM LINE
Guillen had to go. The Angels knew it. Everybody knew it. The fact that Angels GM Bill Stoneman, despite having nearly zero leverage, was able to get two quality, major-league ready talents for Guillen is remarkable. Rivera is unproven but early indications are that he isn't much less of a player than Guillen, if at all. Izturis will be a useful big leaguer, either as a starter or utilityman. Neither of them make a dent in the Angels' payroll. For D.C., Guillen provides a middle-of-the-order bat and solid defense at a low rate ($3.5 million) -- provided he keeps his cool.

More Trades
Feb. 9 Cubs trade RHP Kyle Farnsworth to Tigers for RHP Roberto Novoa, 3B Scott Moore and OF Bo Flowers.
Feb. 6 Diamondbacks trade LHP Casey Fossum to Devil Rays for OF Jose Cruz Jr. and cash.
Jan. 26 Red Sox trade 1B Doug Mientkiewicz to Mets for 1B Ian Bladergroen.
Jan. 12 Diamondbacks trade 3B Shea Hillenbrand to Blue Jays for RHP Adam Peterson
Dec. 21: Red Sox trade OF Dave Roberts to Padres for OF Jay Payton, INF Ramon Vazquez and minor league RHP David Pauley
Dec. 20 Mariners trade RHP Aaron Taylor to Rockies for RHP Sean Green
Dec. 16 Braves trade OF Eli Marrero to Royals for RHP Jorge Vasquez
Dec. 16 Royals trade C Benito Santiago to Pirates for minor league RHP Leon Nunez
Dec. 15: Brewers trade INF Keith Ginter to Athletics for RHP Justin Lehr and OF Nelson Cruz
Dec. 14: Angels trade RHP Ramon Ortiz to Reds for minor league RHP Dustin Moseley
Dec. 12: Devil Rays trade RHP Chad Gaudin to Blue Jays for C Kevin Cash
Dec. 11: Indians trade OF Matt Lawton to Pirates for LHP Arthur Rhodes
Dec. 11: Brewers trade RHP Danny Kolb to Braves for RHP Jose Capellan and RHP Alex Zumwalt
Dec. 3: Yankees trade LHP Felix Heredia to Mets for LHP Mike Stanton and cash
Dec. 2: Indians trade INF John McDonald to Blue Jays for RHP Thomas Mastny
Nov. 8: Padres trade OF Terrence Long and RHP Dennis Tankersley to Royals for LHP Darrell May and RHP Ryan Bukvich

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