Series Preview: Twins-Yankees

By Jacob Luft, SI.com

Twins vs. Yankees GAME 1 GAME 2 GAME 3 GAME 4 GAME 5 @NY Tue. 8:19 ET @NY Wed. 7:09 ET @MIN Fri. 8:09 ET @MIN Sat. TBD @NY Sun. TBD       If Necessary If Necessary Mariano Rivera was in good from this season converting 53 of 57 save opportunities with a 1.94 ERA and 66 Ks. Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

"Why do the Yankees always win?" Frank Abagnale Sr. asks his son in the movie, Catch Me If You Can. "The other team can't stop looking at the pinstripes."

That may have been the case in the 1950s and '60s, the time when the movie was set, and for a while at least in the late 1990s. But the Yankees haven't won the big one since 2000, a three-year drought of titles that has everybody in the league, including the spunky Minnesota Twins, thinking they can take out baseball's glamour team.

When this first-round series begins Tuesday night in the Bronx, you can be assured the Twins won't be staring at the pinstripes. After all, this was the club that came into Yankee Stadium last October and took Game 1 from the Yankees behind a relatively unknown lefty named Johan Santana only to drop the next three games and the series.

But those three losses were to three pitchers no longer wearing the fabled New York uniform: Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and David Wells. For the first time in recent memory, the Yankees' starting pitching is a question mark heading into October, so much so that nearly every start after the All-Star break was treated as a dress rehearsal for how that pitcher would do in the postseason. When Mike Mussina or Javier Vazquez would get bombed, the concern wasn't so much about that night's loss as much as what that meant for the future. What if he pitches like that in the postseason? Heavens, no!

New York's glaring weakness -- starting pitching -- puts the outcome of this series into question, as does the fact that Minnesota is not your run-of-the-mill representative from baseball's weakest division. The Twins' lineup features power and speed, they play airtight defense in the outfield and have two legitimate aces in budding superstar Santana (13-0 in his past 15 starts) and veteran Brad Radke.

On offense, the Twins can spray the ball around and play small ball, a style that has flustered the stodgy Yankees the past two postseasons. Minnesota can steal bases, play hit-and-run and use speed to put pressure on the New York defense.

If the Yankees do win, it won't be an Abagnale-style con job. They will have to earn it.

The Rotation (AL Rank)   W-L ERA WHIP K BB HR CG Twins 59-45 (4) 4.07 (1) 1.31 (2) 668 (6) 229 (1) 123 (6) 4 (11) Yankees 70-46 (2) 4.84 (6) 1.36 (3) 686 (2) 266 (2) 133 (10) 1 (14) Johan Santana's dominance is well-chronicled, and the series may very well hinge on whether the Yankees can get to him in Game 1. But Brad Radke (26 walks) is a control artist who will give the Twins a chance to win, too, as will Carlos Silva, who has won his past four starts. If the Twins lead after Game 3, there is a chance Kyle Lohse will get a start in Game 4 to give Santana a chance to pitch on full rest in Game 5, if necessary. Power pitching wins in the playoffs. That has been the mantra among the baseball cognoscenti since Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson vanquished the Yankees three years ago. It was further reinforced by the champion Angels' dominant bullpen in 2002 and the playoff run by the underdog Marlins last October. Do the Yankees have it? Not really. At least, not like they have in the past. There is no Roger Clemens on this staff, and its only starter with 150 strikeouts, Javier Vazquez, posted a 7.06 ERA after the All-Star break. The Edge: Twins Bullpen   Saves ERA WHIP K BB HR W-L Twins 48 (4) 3.94 (5) 1.35 (5) 451 (4) 200 (6) 44 (2) 32-24 (5) Yankees 59 (1) 4.45 (9) 1.38 (7) 371 (9) 174 (3) 49 (5) 30-15 (2) How dominant was Joe Nathan this season? His peripheral numbers were better than Rivera's across the board, including ERA, WHIP, hits allowed and strikeouts. Nathan's setup crew is pretty good, too, with left-hander Juan Rincon striking out 106 batters in 82.0 innings and righty J.C. Romero going 7-4 with 68 K's in 73.0 innings. But as effective as this trio has been, they can't match the experience of Gordon-Rivera. A running joke in the New York media this season has been that Torre will be bringing in setup man Tom Gordon in the fifth inning of playoff games. More like the sixth inning. One of Torre's strengths as a postseason manager has been to hold nothing back, win today's game at any cost and worry about tomorrow ... well, tomorrow. If the Yankees have the lead after five, the last four innings very well could be Gordon-Mariano Rivera. Expect the surging Tanyon Sturtze to fill the former role of Ramiro Mendoza as top middle relief man. The Edge: Yankees The Lineup   Runs HR BA OBP SLG SB CS K BB Twins 777 (10) 189 (6) .266 (10) .333 (8) .432 (9) 116 (3) 46 (5) 972 (11) 512 (7) Yankees 894 (2) 241 (T1) .269 (8) .353 (2) .458 (2) 84 (8) 33 (11) 977 (10) 667 (1) The past two teams to eliminate the Yankees in October, the Angels and Marlins, took advantage of the Yankees' mediocre defense by making contact and employing a frenetic style of play (stolen bases, bunts, hit & runs, etc.). Minnesota fits into this style as well, with five players reaching double-digit steals totals. The Twins don't have a genuinely scary bat in the lineup, but they do have balance thanks to the boost they have received from youngsters Lew Ford and Justin Morneau. Who do you pitch to? That was the question heading into this season once the Yankees acquired A-Rod as a "fill-in" for the injured Aaron Boone. They set a club record with 242 home runs, with Gary Sheffield and Rodriguez each hitting 36. The fear all season has been that the Bombers would get to the playoffs only to get ushered out by a hot pitcher Josh Beckett-style, but that is easier said than done. It is more likely that this lineup will wear down an opposing pitching staff during a five- or seven-game series. The Edge: Yankees The Defense   Errors Fielding Pct. Range Factor Zone Rating Efficiency Twins 101 (6) .984 (4) 37.11 (9) .687 (10) .842 (8) Yankees 99 (4) .983 (6) 36.79 (11) .688 (7) .841 (9) Torii Hunter covers more ground than UPS on its best day in center field. He is flanked by two other speedsters in Shannon Stewart and Jacque Jones. Shortstop Cristian Guzman and second baseman Luis Rivas make for one of the better double-play combos in the league, although Rivas' elbow injury means Michael Cuddyer will get the start Tuesday. The infield defense is light years improved from last season, when the right side consisted of error-prone Alfonso Soriano and a DH, Jason Giambi, with Nick Johnson mixed in. The additions of Rodriguez at third, Miguel Cairo at second and Tony Clark/John Olerud at first, along with the solid play of Jorge Posada, have made a marked difference. It's too bad none of those guys can play outfield, too. The huge expanse of Yankee Stadium has exposed the old legs of Bernie Williams, Kenny Lofton, Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui. The Edge: Yankees Bottom Line It's tempting to go with the Twins here. They have the game's best pitcher, a dominant closer and were in the exact same position last season, so there is no need to worry about them being frightened by the October stage. It would make for a great story, to be sure. The low-payroll kids taking out the big city bullies. But it ain't gonna happen. The depth of the Yankees' lineup and, in the end, the best closer in postseason history will prevail. Yankees in five