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The Toronto Blue Jays spent the offseason knowing two things as they watched the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles empty their pocketbooks. First, even without making a significant move, the Blue Jays have enough offense to go toe-to-toe with all three of their AL East rivals. Second, for all the moving and spending, the bottom line in 2004 will be the same as ever: The division title will go to the team that pitches the best. The Blue Jays will go as far as their arms carry them, regardless of how much other teams spend. Rotation
No pitcher in the major leagues has more wins since the start of the 2002 season than Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, the winner of the American League Cy Young Award. He could very well end up being the only returning member from the rotation that broke camp in 2003, since free agents Miguel Batista and Pat Hentgen and trade acquisition Ted Lilly are newcomers who are guaranteed three spots.
Hentgen's second half in Baltimore answered questions about his health, and Halladay has long considered him to be a mentor. Batista, a late bloomer, signed with Toronto after playing understudy to Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in Arizona. Josh Towers has a tenuous hold on the fifth spot in an organization that has impressive minor league depth. Justin Miller could knock him out of a spot once he regains health.
Bullpen
Aquilino Lopez, Terry Adams, Justin Speier and Kerry Ligtenberg all have experience pitching in late innings, and it will be up to manager Carlos Tosca to mix and match them. There is some concern that Speier and Lopez have too-similar stuff. Closer prospect Adam Peterson has a big-time fastball, but barring injury he is at least a year away. Bob File can regain a spot after a shoulder injury limited him to 13.2 minor league innings 2003.
Lefty Jason Kershner, who retired 80 percent of first batters he faced, and free agent signee Valerio De Los Santos give Tosca solid options.
Middle Infield
Toronto's infield defense is only average, and switch-hitting second baseman Orlando Hudson is the best of the lot. He made five errors in the first month of the season but just seven the rest of the way, when it was his offense (especially a .162 batting average right-handed) that became more of a concern. Shortstop Chris Woodward lost his confidence and his job to veteran Mike Bordick, who has since retired, so the Jays have brought in Chris Gomez from Minnesota to push Woodward.
Corners
First baseman Carlos Delgado drove in an incredible 97 runs before the All-Star break and ended the season with 117 runs scored and 145 RBIs. He has hit 30-plus home runs in seven consecutive seasons and driven in 100-plus runs in six straight. He deserves more credit than he gets for his improvement defensively, but knees will be a concern for the rest of his career.
Third baseman Eric Hinske has recovered from a broken bone in his left hand, which contributed to his 22 errors that tied a club record for a third baseman. Hinske needs a strong spring after earning a multi-year contract following his 2002 Rookie of the Year award. The Jays would love to see him report to spring training in top shape.
Outfield
Vernon Wells set a club record and led the majors with 215 hits and didn't go hitless in three straight games all season. He also showed a defensive prowess that makes him one of the premier young outfielders in the game.
The organization has young outfielders on the way, but for now, Frank Catalanotto and Reed Johnson will be in the corners. Catalanotto's average fell after the All-Star break, but his on-base percentage went up and he still set career highs in homers and RBIs. Johnson is a hustler with loads of moxie who keeps a framed, vintage picture in his locker of Ty Cobb sliding in spikes high. Quietly, he was one of the AL's most impressive rookies and had a club rookie record 20-game hit streak.
Catching
Kevin Cash's defense -- he threw out 26 percent of would-be basestealers -- will get him a regular job in this lineup, because the team's offense can make up for his lack of production. He has shown himself to be a decent bat handler, adept at the sacrifice bunt. Greg Myers is coming off a season in which he played in a career-high 121 games (67 starts) and batted .307.
DH/Bench
Myers and Dave Berg (who started at four different positions) are savvy veterans who aren't likely to get much time at designated hitter as long as 25-year-old Josh Phelps is around. Phelps, who has 35 home runs in 674 career at bats, will eventually supplant Delgado at first base. Gomez will be a valuable reserve, unless he unseats Woodward at short. Myers' advanced age means a third catcher will also be needed. Johnson would be an ideal bench player, but he'll likely be play everyday in the outfield, at least at the start of the season. Former Pirates first-round pick Chad Hermansen signed a minor league deal and could win a spot.
Management
The Blue Jays will score plenty of runs, but Tosca won't hesitate to play small ball with the bottom of his order. Tosca, who doesn't have a full-time bench coach, hasn't had a full-time closer he can rely on either, and that has hamstrung some of his late-inning decision-making. He gets credit for a smooth, professional clubhouse.
General manager J.P. Ricciardi will have the payroll nicely balanced once Delgado's contract ($19 million) runs out after this season.
Final Analysis
With minor leaguers Alex Rios, Gabe Gross and Guillermo Quiroz on the cusp of being ready for the big leagues, along with some intriguing young arms, the Blue Jays are right on course to meet Ricciardi's target date for contention of 2005-2006. The key will be Ricciardi's ability to maintain financial flexibility given the realities of a payroll that may not ever exceed the mid-$50 million range. In Ricciardi's perfect world, that means that the Blue Jays will be able to rely on an internally drafted and developed pitching staff, much like the Oakland Athletics.
In the meantime, the only way the Blue Jays will surprise anyone this season is if, like the Florida Marlins, they can find their own version of Dontrelle Willis or Miguel Cabrera. Staving off a challenge from the free-spending Orioles is going to be tough enough, let alone taking aim at the Yankees or Red Sox.
Click here for a complete list of 2004 Team Previews
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