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If the Indians contend this year, it will be by accident. A weak American League Central will help them, but a young starting rotation, unproven offense and bad defense will not. However, general manager Mark Shapiro says that Cleveland may be a contender by the All-Star break. He started this rebuilding project in 2002 and has much at stake. Rotation
C.C. Sabathia, Jason Davis, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook will be the top four starters; Jason Bere, Chad Durbin, Jeff D'Amico and Jason Stanford will compete for the fifth spot. Jeremy Guthrie, the No. 1 pick in 2002, isn't ready. Sabathia's 300 pounds make him vulnerable in the late innings, but he's settled into the No. 1 spot well. Davis made a ton of rookie mistakes last year, but he's on course to win 12 to 15 games and pitch 200 innings this year. Lee is a quality left-hander who needs to be tested by a full big-league season. Westbrook, who has struggled with his health and control, has a chance to be a solid fourth starter if he can avoid injury. Bere, Durbin, D'Amico and Stanford are interchangeable in the fifth spot, promising little, if any, upside.
Bullpen
Shapiro says good bullpens can be rebuilt annually. He used 24 relievers last year and may need as many this season. Bob Wickman, out last season with right elbow surgery, is scheduled to return and replace departed closer Danys Baez. Wickman's rehab sessions went well late last season, and the Indians are confident he's healthy. If not, manager Eric Wedge can turn to free agent signee Jose Jimenez, who saved 41 games for Colorado in 2002, or David Riske, who went 7-for-7 in save situations when he replaced Baez in August. Jack Cressend and Rafael Betancourt will get first shot at the middle innings after pitching well last season. Spring training invitees Bobby Howry and Giovanni Carrara will push them. Scott Stewart, acquired from Montreal in an off-season trade, will serve as the late-inning left-handed specialist.
Middle Infield
Infield Omar Vizquel, providing his surgically repaired right knee is sound and he isn't traded -- questions about the knee killed a December trade with Seattle -- will be back at shortstop for his 11th season in Cleveland. A healthy Vizquel will improve the Tribe's bottom-feeding offense and defense. New second baseman Ronnie Belliard will help as well, especially offensively. Belliard is expected to keep second base warm for prospect Brandon Phillips, who couldn't handle big-league pitching last year and will spend most of this season at Class AAA Buffalo.
Corners
If the Indians get the same season out of third baseman Casey Blake this year as they did last season, they'll be happy. Blake, a veteran minor leaguer, wore down at the end of last year but still led the team in games, hits and doubles. On a team that used 25 rookies, Blake offered stability and leadership. At first base, the status quo won't do. The Indians need Travis Hafner or Ben Broussard to win the position outright. They shared it last year, but Wedge needs one of them to start producing big numbers. Both are left-handed hitters, so they can't platoon. Broussard is better defensively but disappears at the plate for long stretches. Hafner has more raw power but is injury-prone.
Outfield
Jody Gerut, Milton Bradley, Alex Escobar, Matt Lawton, Coco Crisp and Ryan Ludwick represent the most talented part of the roster. Gerut, coming off a big rookie year, will start in right and Bradley in center. Everyone else will compete in left field. In limited playing time, Escobar and Ludwick showed the kind of power the Indians desperately need. Lawton is the highest-paid player on the team and the most accomplished hitter among the outfielders, but his first two years in Cleveland have been disappointing because of injury and attitude. Crisp is a promising leadoff hitter but might open the season in Buffalo. If Bradley can play 140 games this year -- he hasn't played more than 101 in the last two years -- the offense could be respectable.
Catching
The Indians have two switch-hitting catchers in Victor Martinez and Josh Bard. Martinez will start and Bard will back him up. Bard started last season while Martinez gained experience at Buffalo. Bard, who lost the job last year because he didn't hit, drew considerable trade interest during the winter because he doesn't make much money and calls a good game. The Indians think Martinez is going to be a high-average hitter who can play first base when he doesn't catch. He makes contact but doesn't drive the ball.
DH/Bench
Veteran DH Ellis Burks was not retained, but there will be no shortage of candidates to take his place. Losers in the competition at first base and left field all qualify. If the switch-hitting Crisp makes the club, he can pinch run. He has more than enough speed to steal a base, but his judgment needs work. If Escobar and Ludwick don't find regular work in left, they will either make the team or be traded, because they're out of options. Ludwick not only offers power but also clutch hitting. He hit .409 (18-for-44) with runners in scoring position last year after being acquired from Texas. He is expected to be fully recovered from off-season surgery on his right knee.
Management
In 52 of the Indians' final 54 games last season, Wedge used a starting lineup consisting of six or more rookies. His lineup card contained eight or more rookie starters in 32 of those games. Wedge and Shapiro, in effect, used last season as spring training. That exercise cannot be repeated this year. The players Shapiro has spent the last year and a half collecting must show progress. Gerut stepped forward last year, but more players have to surface to lend credence to the rebuilding program. Wedge, for his part, must manage to win, not just develop. He had a purpose last year -- to look to the future instead of the moment. That won't work this year.
Final Analysis
It's critical that the Indians start well this season. If they are playing winning baseball at the All-Star break, it may convince owner Larry Dolan to trade for some high-priced talent for a second-half push. The Indians, facing their fourth straight year of declining attendance, need something to bring the fans back to Jacobs Field. If Dolan doesn't open his wallet, any improvement made must come from the force-fed rookies of 2003. Dolan cut the payroll from $48 to $42 million this year, which didn't give Shapiro much chance to make off-season improvements. Shapiro's biggest job will be determining who can and who can't play among the horde of young players he's obtained. Last year created more questions than answers.
Click here for a complete list of 2004 Team Previews
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