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Minnesota Twins
2003 Finish: 90-72, 1st AL Central
 

Torii Hunter
Jeff Gross/Getty Images
Batting Order
LFShannon Stewart
Offense improved by 0.76 runs per game after Stewart arrived.
1BDoug Mientkiewicz
Higher OPS vs. LHP (.845) than RHP (.841).
CFTorii Hunter
Onus on Hunter to produce more runs.
3BCorey Koskie
Hit .331 vs. righties; just .224 against southpaws.
DHMatthew LeCroy
Batted .360 vs. Detroit and K.C., but .213 vs. Cleveland and Chicago.
RFJacque Jones
Hit .369 when leading off an inning.
CJoe Mauer
Frontrunner for AL Rookie of the Year.
SSCristian Guzman
Raised OBP from .290 to .309 over final two months of '03.
2BLuis Rivas
Good enough bat handler to hit No. 2.
Rotation
RHPBrad Radke
Pre-All-Star break ERA: 5.49. After: 3.24.
LHPJohan Santana
Left-handers batted .191; righties not much better at .227.
RHPKyle Lohse
Opponents hit .222 during first 30 pitches; .329 over next 30.
RHPCarlos Silva
1.86 ERA in April, 1.69 ERA in September.
RHPRick Helling
Career ERA 4.77. Joins fifth team in four years.
Bullpen
RHPJoe Nathan
New closer owns one career save.
LHPJ.C. Romero
From the penthouse to outhouse in one season.
RHPJuan Rincon
4.97 ERA at home; 2.46 on the road.
RHPAaron Fultz
Two innings pitched in minors last season.
RHPGrant Balfour
Vs. RH: .283 OBP, .480 Slg.; LH: .355 OBP, .333 slg. Go figure.
LHPCarlos Pulido
145 hits in 149 1/3 IP at Rochester last season.
Prospects
CJoe Mauer
May be baseball's best all-around prospect.
RHPJ.D. Durbin
Excellent stuff; tons of confidence; should arrive in majors this year.
DHJustin Morneau
Excellent power-hitting prospect has to work on his defense.

Twins GM Terry Ryan has proven he can rebuild, and that he can repeat. In 2004, he'll try to prove he can do both at the same time. His team is certainly in the right division. Even after trading former All-Stars Eric Milton and A.J. Pierzynski and losing their two best relievers, Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins, to free agency, the Twins may be one or two arms away from winning the budget-conscious AL Central for the third straight season.

Rotation
The Twins will need Johan Santana and Kyle Lohse to develop into dominating starters. Santana, a versatile reliever in 2002, emerged as one of the least-hittable pitchers in baseball after moving into the rotation last summer. His imitation of an ace during the pennant race was as much a part of the Twins' resurgence as the season-saving trade for outfielder Shannon Stewart. Santana's 94-mph fastball and knee-buckling 78-mph changeup make him a potential all-star. Lohse looked like an ace himself early in the 2003 season. With the best stuff on the staff other than Santana, Lohse should be ready to emerge as a top-of-the-rotation starter this year. Despite his lack of dominant statistics, Brad Radke remains the acknowledged ace of the staff because of his dependability and composure in big games. The Twins' staff thinks reliever Carlos Silva, acquired from the Phillies in the Milton deal, could be a good starter, and veteran Rick Helling likely will round out the rotation.

Bullpen
The loss of Guardado, a true gamer, and Hawkins, the prototypical power setup man, could be devastating. “Without Eddie and Hawk, we'd be an average team,” first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz said last fall. That theory will be tested in 2004. Joe Nathan, acquired from San Francisco for Pierzynski, will probably be given the first shot at the closer's job. Juan Rincon and Grant Balfour will be given more responsibility, with Carlos Pulido probably serving as the long reliever. But the key to the bullpen -- and perhaps the team -- could be lefty J.C. Romero. He was dominant in 2002 but then lost the ability to throw strikes or maintain his composure in 2003.

Middle Infield
The Twins' double-play combination has been confounding for the past two seasons. Shortstop Cristian Guzman hurt his right shoulder at the 2001 All-Star game and has never been the same dynamic player. He has lost power and seems afraid to dive to his left or range to his right for fear of further injuring the shoulder. Although still one of the game's fastest players, he has not developed into a good base stealer. Luis Rivas is excellent at turning the double play but has not developed as an offensive player. The duo once appeared to be the strength of the team, but the Twins have lowered those expectations. Veteran utility infielder Denny Hocking wasn't retained and will be replaced by Nick Punto, who has excellent speed. The Twins hope he can either push or eventually replace Guzman.

Corners
The past two years, third baseman Corey Koskie has proven he will play with pain. The Twins wish he'd prove something else this year. Koskie played down the stretch in 2002 with a hand injury that he never revealed to the team, and down the stretch in 2003 with a broken bone in his right hand. That injury robbed him of the ability to hit inside pitches. Koskie has been unable to reproduce his stunning '01 numbers because of injuries but has transformed himself from a fielding liability to, in the eyes of most Twins observers, the best fielding third baseman in the AL. Mientkiewicz is one of the best fielding first basemen in the game, and he proved himself to be a valuable offensive player last year. The Twins began their pennant surge after Mientkiewicz took over the No. 3 hole, where his ability to draw walks, work counts and get clutch hits was invaluable. He gets knocked for not producing power, but the Twins' staff feels he saves more runs with his glove than many first basemen produce with their bats.

Outfield
It speaks volumes of the Twins' regard for Stewart that they traded a coveted young player (Bobby Kielty) for him last summer and re-signed the left fielder this winter while losing pitchers in trades and free agency. Stewart altered the Twins' season by becoming a force in the leadoff spot, but also by demonstrating to the team's young players how a savvy veteran prepares his mind and body for a game. Torii Hunter put too much pressure on himself to hit for power in 2003 and wound up hitting just .198 with RISP and less than two out. He managed to drive in 102 runs and had another brilliant season in the field. He should be better in the clutch in 2004, and with Stewart in front of him for six months, that could lead to a large RBI total. The Twins considered trading their other talented young outfielder, Jacque Jones, and still could. If Jones continues to develop, the team could field a formidable lineup.

Catching
There is little doubt that Joe Mauer, the top pick in the 2001 draft, will be a very good big-league player. But will he develop quickly enough to immediately ease the departure of A.J. Pierzynski, one of the game's best catchers and toughest outs? Mauer is considered an outstanding defensive catcher with the sweetest swing this side of Paul Molitor. Veteran Henry Blanco will back up and mentor Mauer.

DH/Bench
Michael Cuddyer is likely to become a super utility player who can handle the outfield, first, third and even second. Michael Restovich, Lew Ford and Michael Ryan will compete for outfield jobs. Cuddyer and Restovich are two of the Twins' top power prospects. Ford is a good leadoff hitter who provides speed off the bench. The Twins expect Ryan to be their left-handed pinch-hitter and reserve outfielder. Restovich will compete with Cuddyer for at-bats. Matthew LeCroy, who has good power, will start the season as the DH and third catcher.

Management
Many Twins fans have assailed Ryan for shredding a roster that won two straight division titles. Under the payroll constraints imposed by owner Carl Pohlad, he had no chance to keep the team intact. Ryan hopes one of baseball's best farm systems can help him win even while he's rebuilding. Pohlad has been relatively generous when asked to pay for a midseason acquisition or one player who could put the Twins over the top, but he contends he loses too much money annually to finance a big-market roster. Ron Gardenhire is the first Twins manager to win consecutive division titles. After riding a wave of anti-contraction emotion in '02, he found the job much tougher last year, as young players began worrying about their contracts and veterans began worrying about their financial futures.

Final Analysis
The Twins should again be one of the best fielding teams in baseball. If Silva produces, they could have one of the AL's better rotations. They have enough good young hitters to expect them to improve offensively, especially with Stewart in the lineup all season. The question that could determine the division race is this: How will the Twins replace Guardado and Hawkins? If they somehow maintain their late-inning relief dominance, they will have a chance at their third straight AL Central title.

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