A long walk off a short pier

Clock is already ticking on Byron Scott's tenure in New Orleans

By John Hollinger, SI.com

Byron Scott's days as the Hornets' head coach were numbered the minute he shook hands with owner George Shinn. Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Enjoy Bourbon Street while you can, Byron Scott. If history tells us anything, you're a dead man walking.

It's not that Scott is a poor coach. Far from it, in fact -- he took the Nets to two straight Finals appearances and only lost his job when a slow start in 2003-04 led "general manager" Jason Kidd to push for a coaching change.

It's just that there are too many other factors working against him. For one, his team is moving from the lightweight Eastern Conference to a division in the West where the other four teams won at least 45 games. (Only three teams in the entire East won that many.) If Scott avoids the cellar he'll run away with the Coach of the Year award.

Second, he's working for one of the NBA's more confounding owners. George Shinn is the same guy who thought replacing Paul Silas with Tim Floyd (at the time the owner of the NBA's worst won-lost record in history) would result in the best season in franchise history. He's been notoriously frugal when it comes to paying free agents and notoriously meddling when it comes to running a team. When Scott was interviewed on ESPN and said the main reason he took the job was "commitment to winning," you could practically hear the other 28 coaches cackling in the background.

Only two years into their stay in New Orleans and Shinn is already working on alienating fans in a second NBA city. He was so popular in his first stop in Charlotte that the community decided they'd rather build a new arena for an expansion team than erect one for Shinn. He got a sweetheart deal from New Orleans and moved his team, but now the bloom is off the rose. The Hornets, despite having a playoff team that was near the top of the East for much of the season, finished 28th out of 29 teams in attendance. Let's face it, the handwriting's already on the wall. If this were a pick-up game, St. Louis and Las Vegas would be on the sidelines arguing over who's got next.

But neither of those reasons are why I think Scott's a dead duck. No, Scott will end up eventually walking the plank because his team doesn't have a general manager yet. The current holder of the title, Bob Bass, is retiring after the draft, and no replacement has been found. In fact, there's no evidence the search has even begun. As in any organization, of course, it all gets back to the guy at the top. By hiring Scott before he has the new GM, Shinn has again proven that his organization is truly Bass-ackwards.

It's just a basic truth of the business, especially in the NBA: when a new general manager is appointed to a team that already has a coach in place, the coach rarely survives the transition for long. Scott is feeling pretty good now, but in another month or two when Shinn hires Scott's boss, things will be different. Inevitably, the new guy will feel differently about some things than Scott -- after all, he wasn't the one who hired Scott. Before long, Scott will find himself submarined through "unnamed sources" in the papers while the new GM jokes about his job security with David Letterman.

This is true even for the best of coaches. Look at Jim O'Brien's tenure in Boston. O'Brien and his previous general manager built the team around gritty defense, but when Danny Ainge took over last summer, the plan was rearranged. Ainge's vision of an offense-minded team that featured players such as Ricky Davis and Marcus Banks was diametrically opposite O'Brien's preference for tough veterans such as Eric Williams and Mike James. The relationship disintegrated until O'Brien finally resigned in disgust after half a season.

Scott should have studied that case before taking the Hornets job, because it's par for the course. Whomever Shinn hires as general manager will have no investment in Byron Scott, because it wasn't his call. That gives him carte blanche to dismiss Scott if the team disappoints and bring in his own guy. More important, it also means the new GM may not necessarily be on board with how Scott wants to build the team.

And O'Brien was one of the more fortunate compared to some other guys in that he actually got to run the team for a few months before the new GM forced the eventual change. When Larry Bird took over in Indiana last summer, the first thought in his head, if not expressed out of his mouth, was most likely, "When can I fire Isiah [Thomas]?" Zeke turned around and did the same thing to Don Chaney in New York. Leonard Hamilton's coaching days were similarly short-lived in Washington when it became Michael Jordan's show, and Bill Cartwright couldn't survive three weeks into John Paxson's tenure in Chicago. Whoever the Hornets' next GM is will want to get his guy in as coach, and who can blame him?

On top of that, here's another reason for Scott to worry: the departure of Bass, who has been the only thing keeping the franchise afloat the past few years. For all of the moves Bass has made under the Shinn reign, he has to be the most underrated NBA executive of the past decade. When Shinn was too cheap to pay Alonzo Mourning and Eddie Jones, it was Bass that bailed him out with brilliant trades that brought in Glen Rice, Jamal Mashburn and P.J. Brown -- amazing work considering he had a gun to his head.

Aside from the Jones trade the only thing keeping the Hornets competitive have been Bass' drafts. He tagged Baron Davis in the lottery and, even better, grabbed Jamaal Magloire, David West and Ricky Davis as late first-round picks. Those were good enough calls that it offset Shinn's depth-depleting unwillingness to spend on free agents. Whoever replaces Bass will be hard-pressed to match that record, let alone exceed it -- especially given that Shinn will be making the hire.

So Scott will have a new boss, but he doesn't know whom. Strike One. He already knows what a cheapskate/meddler the owner is. Strike two. And his team will have to overachieve just to avoid the cellar. Steeeee-rike three. Have another Hurricane with those beignets, Byron. You'll need it.

John Hollinger is an NBA producer for SI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus.