Shaq's free-throw shooting and defense need to be sharp if the Lakers are to advance past the Spurs. AP

The Lakers will win if...
Their role players step up, and keep games close so Kobe can take over at the end. Last year Shaq and Kobe's supporting cast fizzled, and the Spurs won in six games.

L.A. has since added Karl Malone and Gary Payton, but its bench is still an Achilles' heel. Devean George, Derek Fisher, Rick Fox, Kareem Rush and Slava Medvedenko must knock down open shots and provide hustle plays on defense. If those players can hold their own against their San Antonio counterparts, the Lakers' Big Four can take care of the rest. Shaq and Kobe can offset Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.

Malone, meanwhile, gives L.A. an X-factor it lacked a year ago: a big-time shotmaker, passer and principal defender on Duncan. And if a game comes down to the wire, Bryant is all but unstoppable.

Defensively, the Lakers must be ready for a steady diet of pick-and-roll. Shaq must move his feet and get help from teammates, or Parker will kill L.A. like he did a year ago.

The Lakers won three of four from the Spurs during the regular season, and they won't be intimidated at the SBC Center. But L.A.'s lack of quickness, its thin bench and Shaq's free-throw shooting problems are major weaknesses. Throw in the fact that San Antonio has homecourt advantage -- by virtue of its better overall record -- and it's clear the Lakers have little margin for error.

The Spurs will win if...
They don't get stupid with the ball. The Spurs have every reason to be confident in this series. They have won 15 straight and are coming off an impressive sweep of the Grizzlies.

In Duncan and Rasho Nesterovic, they have two 7-footers to swarm Shaq. In Bruce Bowen, they have an ace perimeter defender to keep Bryant in check. In Manu Ginobili they have a quick-handed pest off the bench. San Antonio led the NBA in points allowed (84.3, tied with Detroit) and field-goal percentage defense (40.9 percent).

The real key for the Spurs will be on offense. With Shaq and Malone expected to gang up on Duncan down low, it is imperative Parker and Ginobili don't get careless with the ball. San Antonio can't afford to waste possessions and give L.A. easy baskets like the Rockets did.

Nesterovic, a good outside shooter, must hit a few 15-footers to pull Shaq out of the lane. Also, keep an eye on Robert Horry. The 6-10 reserve forward is famous for his playoff heroics. He was all over the floor against Memphis, and would love nothing more than to beat his former Lakers team. San Antonio has a decided edge in speed against L.A. The Spurs are also as good or better on the backboards.

As long as the Spurs keep running their offense, and don't stand around and watch Duncan, they should be able to score enough to win.

Key matchup
Duncan vs. Malone. Two of the game's all-time greatest power forwards meet up for a shot at the NBA title. Duncan must find a way to battle Malone in the post without getting suckered into cheap fouls. On defense, he must help double-team Shaq while not letting the Mailman drift free for those killer 15-foot jumpers. Malone will use all his guile and tricks to keep Duncan off balance. After having given up millions of dollars for the chance to play for an NBA title, the 40-year-old future Hall of Famer is on a mission.

Interesting fact
The Spurs and Lakers have met four of the past five years in the NBA playoffs, with each team winning twice. The Spurs won in 1999 and 2003, the Lakers in 2001 and 2002. Each time, the winner went on to claim the NBA title that season.

The pick
Some believe this is the real NBA Finals. It should live up to the hype. The Lakers' Big Four will keep them in it, but San Antonio's quickness will prove to be the difference. Spurs in 6.