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 As his reward for leading Minnesota to the West's best record, Garnett will be named the MVP prior to Game 1 of the series. AP
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The Kings will win if ...
They can keep Kevin Garnett from running wild. The Kings just don't have an answer for him, especially with Chris Webber still hobbled by his surgically-repaired left knee. Sacramento is going to have to hope a combination of Webber, 7-foot Brad Miller and 6-foot-9 reserve Darius Songaila can somehow do the job. The Kings also might try running an extra defender at Garnett, and hope other T'wolves like Fred Hoiberg and Trenton Hassell can't beat them.
If Sacramento can somehow find a way to slow Garnett, its high-powered offense will give it a chance. The Kings finished second in the NBA in scoring during the season (102.8) and have the marksmen to shoot over Minnesota's zone-like defense. Peja Stojakovic (24.2 points per game) is a big-time scorer, while Mike Bibby is a clutch shot-maker. The Kings won't have top reserve Bobby Jackson (abdominal strain), but Anthony Peeler is dangerous off the bench and could be extra motivated against his former Minnesota team. Sacramento appears to be in a fragile state, with coach Rick Adelman searching for combinations. In their five-game series win over Dallas, Webber and Vlade Divac each found themselves on the bench for key stretches. Yet a scrambled lineup right now could make it harder for the T'wolves to prepare for them. The bottom line is the Kings still have a lot of veterans who know how to make plays.
The T'wolves will win if ...
Their role players don't choke. It's no secret the T'wolves rely heavily on their big three of Garnett, Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell. But it was blue-collar guys like Hoiberg, Hassell, Mark Madsen and Ervin Johnson that helped Minnesota forge the best record in the West. Against the Kings, this relatively-inexperienced band must continue to hit shots and make hustle plays.
The T'wolves are already perilously thin with top reserves Wally Szczerbiak (back) and Troy Hudson (ankle) out. They can't afford to have their role players freeze up, especially since the Kings are likely to leave them to swarm Garnett. If the Big Three get the usual help from their supporting cast, Minnesota should be in good shape. The T'wolves are much better defensively than the Kings, having finished fourth in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed (41.4 percent). Garnett can wreak havoc with his length, while Cassell, Hassell and Sprewell are all solid defenders. As long as Johnson and Michael Olowokandi don't get abused down low, Minnesota should be able to keep Sacramento from lighting up the scoreboard. The T'wolves have plenty of reason to be confident in this series. They beat the Kings three of four during the regular season, and enter the series having won 13 of 14 games, including a five-game series win over the Nuggets.
Key matchup
Garnett vs. Webber. If Webber were 100 percent healthy, this would be a terrific matchup. But with his mobility limited, it's hard to imagine him staying with KG. Still, Webber showed against Dallas he can be an effective player. In this series, he must provide a low-post presence against the less-skilled T'wolves frontcourt and resist the urge to hang outside and shoot jumpers. Garnett killed the Kings during the regular season, averaging 26.8 points and 19.3 rebounds. He must exploit Webber's lack of mobility by either taking him off the dribble or cutting to the basket. Defensively, he must battle with C-Webb in the post while staying out of foul trouble.
Interesting fact
Sacramento led the NBA in 3-point accuracy during the season (40.1 percent), while Minnesota was fifth (36.3). In fact, the series features three of the NBA's top six 3-point shooters this season: Peeler led the league (48.2 percent), while Hoiberg was fourth (44.2) and Stojakovic sixth (43.3).
The pick
The Kings showed against the Mavs that they're too proud and talented to count out. But Minnesota is a much better defensive team than Dallas, and Kevin Garnett is on a mission. T'wolves in 7.