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No. 4 Stanford (12-0) at No. 3 Arizona (10-1)
Saturday, 6:30 p.m. EST (Fox Sports Network)
McKale Center (14,545)
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SI.com's B.J. Schecter breaks down Saturday's big game.
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Pac-10 play is just getting under way, but there's no hotter matchup than the Wildcats and Cardinal. The McKale center will be rocking as Arizona tires to knock Stanford off its perch. Both teams have played extremely well as of late and both teams have recently benefited from the addition of a key player. The Wildcats, reeling over the critical loss of forward Isaiah Fox to a knee injury on Dec. 2, picked up Ivan Radenovic and he's made an immediate impact. In three games, the 6-foot-10 Serbian forward has averaged 13.3 points and 6.3 rebounds and has given 'Zona much needed help off the bench. On Jan. 2, Stanford welcomed 6-8 swingman Josh Childress, who missed Stanford's first nine games with a stress fracture in his left foot, back to the lineup. He's averaged 9.3 points and 6.0 rebounds in three games, and on Thursday night came up huge in a 63-62 win over Arizona State, grabbing 11 rebounds and scoring the game-winner on a tip-in with 9.4 seconds remaining. Last year, these two teams split a pair of games decided by a total of eight points, the road team winning both times.
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It's safe to say there's no better starting five in the nation than Arizona's. The Wildcats can beat you in a lot of ways and all five starters are versatile, athletic and can score. Hassan Adams, 6-4 and a natural two-guard, is playing out of position at the small -- and sometimes power -- forward spot, but he's still managed to lead 'Zona in scoring (17.7 points per game) and grab 7.5 rebounds per game. Adams can shoot from the outside, slash to the basket and defend bigger players with ease. At this point in the season, power forward Andre Iguodala might be the player of the year. He averages 12.5 points, 9.1 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game and already has a pair of triple-doubles. He can rebound with the best of them, consistently beats his man down the floor and is an excellent on-the-ball defender.
Before the season, Arizona coach Lute Olson called guard Salim Stoudamire his best offensive player, but the 6-1 junior has struggled at times with his shooting this season. Still, he's averaging 15.1 points per game and can explode for 30-plus when he gets hot. One big question facing the Wildcats coming into this year was whether freshman point guard Mustafa Shakur (8.1 points, 4.7 assists per game) could handle running the team. The answer has been an resounding yes as Shakur has proven to be a steady hand with blazing quickness and a pass-first mentality. Center Channing Frye (15.0 points, 7.6 rebounds per game) has been terrific and by leading the Pac-10 with 3.3 blocks per game he's given Arizona an inside presence it lacked at times last season.
Stanford could be the poster child for playing unselfish, fundamentally sound team basketball. The Cardinal go 10 deep, shoot nearly 50 percent from the field and can score in a bunch of different ways. Four of their five starters average double figures and no one is scoring more than 13.7 points per game. Whoever is open takes the shot. In an 87-80 win over Gonzaga in December, Stanford had 23 assists.
If the Cardinal have a go-to guy, it's senior forward Matt Lottich (13.7 points per game), who was the team's leading scorer in its two biggest wins with 18 against Kansas and 34 in the Gonzaga victory. He's an excellent shooter, an even better passer and he has a good feel for the game. Sophomore point guard Chris Hernandez (10.5 points, 5.2 assists per game) does a good job getting Stanford in its offense and is an excellent outside shooter -- 51.1percent from the field, 58.6 percent from three-point range.
Up front, the Cardinal are solid but not spectacular. But they are outrebounding opponents by more than 10 boards per game and have used their size to their advantage. Forward Justin Davis (11.7 points, 7.3 rebounds per game) is athletic and hits the glass hard, while Rob Little (10.3, 5.8) and Nick Robinson (6.8, 4.0) are very good at clearing out space inside. The addition of Childress, who was Stanford's best player before getting injured, will certainly help here and as he gets back in to shape and becomes more comfortable he'll become Stanford's No. 1 scoring option.
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For Arizona to win it must push the tempo, but it has to do so while staying under control. The Wildcats are averaging 16.3 turnovers per game, and when they play erratically they take bad shots. In Arizona's only loss, a 78-77 loss to Florida, the Wildcats shot 38.3 percent from the field and 23.8 percent from three-point range. The Wildcats also must -- must! -- avoid foul trouble. Although they are better with the addition of Radenovic, they still only go eight deep and are especially thin in the frontcourt.
The key for Stanford is to make it a half-court game. There's no way the Cardinal can run with Arizona, but if they can be methodical, pound it inside and try to get Arizona in foul trouble, they'll have a good chance at winning. And in a close game Stanford is extremely tough because Hernandez and Lottich shoot 95.2 percent and 87.1 percent respectively from the free-throw line. It will also be interesting to see how Childress fits into the rotation. Stanford has had excellent chemistry so far, but Childress will be taking playing time and shots away from others and won't be in top form for several weeks.
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Arizona F Hassan Adams So., 6-4, 201 Stats: 17.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg Agile, quick and fearless, Adams can beat you in a lot of ways. He?s a natural scorer and has the potential to go off against a much slower lineup. Stanford can?t afford to double him, but they must make sure they have an answer for him. |
Stanford G Matt Lottich Sr., 6-4, 205 Stats: 13.7 ppg, 4.4 apg An outstanding outside shooter, Lottich can get hot in a hurry, and if he does look out. But against the quicker and more athletic Adams, Lottich isn?t likely to get many easy looks so the Cardinal must screen, screen and screen some more. |
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Though Stanford is unbeaten, Arizona looks more like a Final Four team. In fact, there are many similarities between this team and the 1997 squad that won the national title: extremely athletic, a freshman point guard and no seniors among the regulars. The Wildcats are fun to watch, but if anyone can slow them down it's Stanford. Coach Mike Montgomery may not have the race horses to win a race with the Wildcats, but he's one of the best-prepared coaches in the business and will do whatever he can to slow the game down. Don't be surprised to see the Cardinal playing some zone, challenging Arizona's shooters to consistently hit from outside. But Arizona is talented enough to overcome whatever defenses Stanford throws at them. The Wildcats will pull away at the end of a hard-fought game and will prove to be the team to beat in the Pac-10.
The Pick: Arizona 78, Stanford 73