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Revisiting 2003 predictions: Free agents

By Bob Harris, Special to SI.com

This is the second in a three-part series reviewing predictions made last year. This week's target: free agents.

Rather than go into detail on all of last year's free agents, we'll keep the focus on some of the bigger names, players most likely to have an impact on a given owner's fantasy season.

The following players are listed in by position in alphabetical order. You'll find a brief synopsis of the opinions I offered on each last heading into last season; what went right; what went wrong and what the future might hold for all those featured.

Quarterbacks

Jeff Blake, Arizona Cardinals
 What I Said Then: Last July, I said he'd be playing with a group of wideouts headed into the regular season boasting an "average of less than one NFL touchdown reception per man" and added "you'd be ill-advised to bet your fantasy team's 2003 success on any of them meeting Blake's challenge."

What Went Right: Not a heck of a lot. Blake ultimately lost his starting job to unproven youngster Josh McCown and was released by new head coach Dennis Green last month.

What Went Wrong: According to at least one published account, Blake wasn't just bad, he also created problems in the locker room. Teammates reportedly started calling him "Leon" in reference to the me-first character from the Budweiser ads. Blake has always been that kind of player, and some former teammates in Baltimore said they were glad he left after the team did not bring him back. Those Ravens players say Blake would often call plays in games that were not practiced on the field. In Arizona, he didn't always know the plays.

What The Future Holds: See "What Went Right."

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers
 What I Said Then: As I suggested last February: "[Delhomme] could turn out to be one of the hotter commodities despite the face he's only started two games, backing up Aaron Brooks for the better part of his career."

What Went Right: Delhomme turned out to be one of the top free-agent pickups of the year, leading -- and I do mean leading -- the Panthers to a 14-6 record and their first Super Bowl. He showed a knack for winning close games, eight times leading the team to winning scores on their final possession. An effective power-rushing attack clearly factored into his success, as did Steve Smith's emergence as a legitimate big-play threat.

What Went Wrong: Other than the fact he wasn't actually the opening day starter, any fantasy owner sharp enough to snag him late in last year's draft certainly isn't complaining.

What The Future Holds: Delhomme clearly has locked himself in as Carolina's long-term starter. According to those who follow the team closely, the Panthers will try to make sure he's around for the foreseeable future this offseason when they look to extend his contract, which currently ends after the 2004 season.

Jake Plummer had 15 TD passes despite a disappointing receiving corps. Jeff Gross/Getty Images

Jake Plummer, Denver Broncos
 What I Said Then: From last May: "To date, Plummer has never played in an offense that's truly tapped into the position like Denver's does. I'd also be willing to argue that Arizona falls somewhat short when compared to Denver in terms of the overall level of talent surrounding Plummer over the last six years and they certainly never boasted the kind of collective offensive brainpower [head coach Mike] Shanahan and Broncos coordinator Gary Kubiak bring to the table."

What Went Right: Posted career highs in passer rating (91.2) and TD-to-interception ratio (15-7). And according to the Sports Xchange, his ability to make plays on the run is something Denver hadn't seen since John Elway was playing.

What Went Wrong: Missed four consecutive games with shoulder and foot injuries; missed a fifth start when Shanahan held him out of the regular-season finale as a precautionary measure.

What The Future Holds: Still has plenty of room left to grow in Shanahan's system, but needs the team's receiving corps to pick it up a notch in order to maximize potential.

Kordell Stewart, Chicago Bears
 What I Said Then: Last July, I noted: "Given his history of losing confidence when things go poorly, scouts say an offense built specifically to suit Stewart is the most logical way to avoid those bouts of depression."

What Went Right: Offensive coordinator John Shoop tried to work to Stewart's strengths by keeping the ball in the veteran signal caller's hands as much as possible.

What Went Wrong: Stewart came up small despite Shoop's efforts. The former Steeler appeared in only nine games -- seven as a starter.

What The Future Holds: Rex Grossman's solid play last year probably means Stewart will spend most of his future Sundays toting a clipboard and wearing a ball cap.

Running Backs

Only injuries kept Stephen Davis from being a truly elite fantasy running back. Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Stephen Davis, Carolina Panthers
 What I Said Then: Well, I didn't actually say it, but I did pass along the following tidbit last March: "We have evaluated him and he has the potential to be an impact back," Carolina head coach John Fox said. "He has great numbers in his career. I have faced him on more than one occasion when I was with the New York Giants and he is a big, strong, physical back. He is somebody that we would be interested in the free agent market."

What Went Right: Carried the ball 382 times and set a franchise record with 1,444 yards in his first season as a Panther.

What Went Wrong: Injuries cost him two full games and cut into his touches significantly in two others.

What The Future Holds: Will be a huge factor again in the Carolina offense next season. However, many observers believe he'll get fewer carries in 2004 with DeShaun Foster expected to be at full speed from day one.

Stacey Mack, Houston Texans
 What I Said Then: Not much -- and with good reason. As I said last July: "The Texans averaged a meager 84.2 yards per game on the ground last season. In light of Tony Boselli's sudden retirement, I'll go way out on a limb and predict that immediate, significant improvement isn't in the cards here."

What Went Right: The Texans improved their per-game rushing average to 103.2 yards per game.

What Went Wrong: Mack had nothing to do with that improvement after losing his starting job to Domanick Davis, a fourth-round draft pick, a month into the season. Mack ultimately finished the season on injured reserve and missed the last three games with an inflamed left toe.

What The Future Holds: Mack, who originally signed a one-year deal with the Texans, is unlikely to be asked back for another season.

Emmitt Smith, Arizona Cardinals
 What I Said Then: Last July, I suggested a variety of possible scenarios for Smith's 2003 season, including: "An injured or ineffective Smith could eventually give way to Marcel Shipp, who burst onto the scene late last season; or maybe a season long committee approach with Smith serving as the primary back and Shipp coming off the bench as third-down back."

What Went Right: I suppose that depends on your point of view. For me, the fact an injured and ineffective Smith gave way to Shipp was rather fortuitous.

What Went Wrong: For those counting on him to come up with one more productive season, the fact an injured and ineffective Smith gave way to Shipp was rather unfortunate.

What The Future Holds: According to published reports, Green likes the idea of resurrecting the NFL's career rushing leader -- a development that some believe might provide additional motivation for Smith to come back for the second and final season on his contract.

Wide Receivers

David Boston had 320 yards and four TDs in two games, but 560 yards and three scores in his other 12 contests. Donald Miralle/Getty Images

David Boston, San Diego Chargers
 What I Said Then: Last March, I wrote: "Despite [head coach Marty] Schottenheimer's obvious confidence in his maturity, I think anybody seriously considering Boston would be wise to listen to the words of Cardinals defensive line coach 'Mean' Joe Greene, who recently told USA Today: 'He could have the world by its tail if he lives to the age of 30.'"

What Went Right: Overcame nagging injuries to finish the season with a team-high 880 yards and seven TDs on 70 catches. Had two games with two TDs and more than 100 yards.

What Went Wrong: It's safe to assume the Chargers were looking for more -- in terms of both performance and attitude -- when they signed him to a $47 million deal. Boston appeared to go out of his way to irritate Schottenheimer as often as possible. The process started early, with the mercurial wideout testing Schottenheimer's "no-practice, no-play" rule in the week leading up to the regular-season opener.

We're talking about a guy who served a one-game suspension following a run-in with an assistant coach; a guy who once asked defensive teammates to go easy on him in practice because his recently pierced nipple was still sore; and a guy who slipped away from a game he missed due to injury without sitting in on the postgame lecture as expected.

What The Future Holds: Until he really believes it's Schottenheimer's way or the highway, his future in San Diego will remain in question.

Laveranues Coles, Washington Redskins
 What I Said Then: "If everything goes as planned, look for Coles to line up as the starter opposite Rod Gardner -- a role that should give him all the opportunity necessary to post Fantasy totals matching or even exceeding last year's impressive totals."

What Went Right: Got off to a strong start en route to an 82-catch, 1,204-yard season.

What Went Wrong: Unable to produce consistently over the entire season, due in part to a very sore toe that slowed him noticeably down the stretch, and perhaps to a greater degree by the shortcomings inherent in Steve Spurrier's offense.

What The Future Holds: According to those who follow the team closely, Coles has a terrific work ethic, can make tough catches over the middle and is virtually uncoverable on crossing patterns. Although it remains to be seen exactly how the new coaching staff will use him, I suspect Joe Gibbs and crew will greatly appreciate the attributes Coles brings to the table.

Curtis Conway, New York Jets
 What I Said Then: Last March, I noted that "even though the general consensus among league observers says the 10-year veteran has clearly lost a step, he still had four receptions of 40-plus yards in 2002, his best total since 1995."

What Went Right: Started 15 games, pulling in 46 passes for 640 yards with two touchdowns.

What Went Wrong: The 33-year old started slowly and didn't really come into his own until late in the year when Wayne Chrebet shut it down for the year with concussion-related problems. For what it's worth, those observers pointing out he'd lost a step had it right. Conway finished the 2003 season with just one catch over 40 yards or more.

What The Future Holds: Conway will be in the mix, but his diminishing speed and skills all but guarantee diminished totals in 2004.

Brandon Stokley, Indianapolis Colts
 What I Said Then: "If he can avoid the kind of injury woes he suffered during his tenure in Baltimore, the underrated Stokley would give Indianapolis a fearless threat over the middle."

What Went Right: Once he was healthy, Stokley gave the Colts a fearless -- and very productive -- threat over the middle. Finished the season with six touchdown catches despite 10 injury-related DNPs.

What Went Wrong: Wasn't able to go full speed until Week 13.

What The Future Holds: I hate to be a smart aleck, but ... if he can avoid the kind of injury woes he suffered during his tenure in Baltimore, the underrated Stokley would give Indianapolis a fearless threat over the middle.

Derrius Thompson, Miami Dolphins
 What I Said Then: The general consensus last offseason said: "The Dolphins view Thompson, who caught 53 passes while working with three quarterbacks last season in Washington, as a young player on the rise, an ideal complement to Chris Chambers."

What Went Right: I'll have to get back with you on this one.

What Went Wrong: Thompson was a major free-agent bust for the Dolphins, finishing with just 26 catches for 359 yards with no touchdowns. His inability to get the job done ultimately prompted team officials to re-sign Oronde Gadsden at midseason.

What The Future Holds: Surprisingly enough, the Dolphins plan to bring Thompson back in 2004 -- if he's willing to adjust his contract to their satisfaction.

Tight Ends

Desmond Clark, Chicago Bears
 What I Said Then: "Two years ago, Clark caught 51 passes for 566 yards and six TDs for Denver. He's not likely to match those totals with the Bears, but I'll be surprised if he fails to account for more than half of the team's production from that spot this year."

What Went Right: Yes. That might be as vanilla a prediction as I've made in my 11-year career as a fantasy info guy. Nonetheless, Clark finished the season with 44 passes for 433 yards and two touchdowns while the rest of the team's tight ends pulled in 11 catches -- all by Dustin Lyman -- for 80 yards.

What Went Wrong: Injuries -- along with an inconsistent and ineffective passing attack -- kept him from blowing away my projected totals.

What The Future Holds: Pro Football Weekly suggested that new offensive coordinator Terry Shea -- an import from Kansas City -- wants to stress the tight end in the passing game. Although he'll never be mistaken for Tony Gonzalez, Clark is a converted wideout who is capable of getting past most of the league's linebackers in one-on-one coverage.

Jay Riemersma, Pittsburgh Steelers
 What I Said Then: Last March, I suggested: "Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey, a former tight end, often lobbied for the Steelers to throw more to their tight ends when he was their position coach. But when he became their coordinator, he still did not call many passes to the tight ends, mainly because [former starter Mark] Bruener is a basher, not a receiver. That will change with Riemersma."

What Went Right: In 2002, Steelers tight ends caught only 18 of the team's 350 receptions. They upped that total to 24 out of a possible 306.

What Went Wrong: Riemersma, who missed four full games due to a variety of injuries, was only responsible for 10 of those 24 catches.

What The Future Holds: Despite his disappointing 2003 season, team officials still like Riemersma's ability to get open over the middle and he's expected to figure prominently into their plans in 2004.

Kickers

John Hall, Washington Redskins
 What I Said Then: Last April, I said: "Hall might have been better off sticking with what -- at least last season -- was a pretty effective offense in New York. Whatever the case, some good might come from this move. If nothing else, Redskins owner Daniel Snyder should have enough wherewithal to find Hall a chinstrap that fits."

What Went Right: Hall certainly outperformed my expectations, hitting 76 percent of his field goals without missing from inside the 40-yard line until December. He did especially well on longer attempts, hitting six of nine from 40-49 yards and four of seven from 50 and beyond.

What Went Wrong: No go on the chinstrap.

What The Future Holds: The arrival of a staff intent on improving the team's overall offensive output has to be good news for Hall fans.

Rian Lindell, Buffalo Bills
 What I Said Then: "Lindell is not worried about the swirling winds that are common in Ralph Wilson Stadium during the winter. He played at Washington State and kicked for two years at Husky Stadium while the Seahawks' new facility was being built. 'For me it's just about kicking the ball,' Lindell said."

What Went Right: Those swirling winds were never really a factor.

What Went Wrong: Only six NFL place-kickers finished 2003 with fewer than the 24 attempts Lindell had, which was certainly no fault of his own. But the two misses that cost Buffalo a win against Houston -- a 12-10 loss -- fall squarely on his shoulders.

What The Future Holds: A new coaching staff and offensive philosophy are just what the doctor ordered.

That's all for now. Check back next time, when I'll review some of last year's key sleeper predictions.

Bob Harris is Editor and Webmaster of the TFL Report and Senior Editor for Fantasy Sports Publications.