Grey Matter

Setting up a draft day plan for success

By Jason Grey, Special to SI.com

There are many different strategies out there trying to help people win at fantasy baseball. Some of them have cute little acronyms to describe them, or are named after someone for a reason that seemed clever at the time, or are based on some weird gimmick like drafting nothing but lefty platoon players and middle relievers born in the state of Georgia.

Quite frankly, any method can be good enough to win a league in a given year, with the proper circumstances and a good amount of luck (particularly in avoiding injuries). It seems that many of these strategies get you set to challenge for a money finish, but not necessarily win. If that's why you play, then go right ahead.

I approach things a little differently. I prefer a saying that goes: "Second Place is First Loser." I don't want to settle for getting lucky and winning once in a while. I'd rather have a plan that consistently puts me in a position to challenge for a title, year after year.

In an auction league, we can break it down into five easy concepts:

Proper Valuation

Carlos Beltran is a very valuable player, just make sure you have his numbers right. AP FANTASY BASEBALL Sign up Today! • NEW! Baseball Commissioner Full service league management tool. $99.95 per league • NEW! Fantasy Baseball Conquer your league and take home the pennant. $19.95 per team • NEW! Salary Cap Challenge Select your dream team with a $75 million budget. $9.95 per team

Yes, there are correct ways and incorrect ways to derive proper player values for draft day. Why can that make a difference? Say you have the exact same player projections as one of your competitors does, and proper mathematical valuation has a particular player earning $29 in value, while he has him at $23 using a different, flawed method. Guess who drops out at $23 and who picks up a $5 profit by getting him at $24?

I've seen disparities in valuation systems where a player's projections are relatively the same, but projected value is $10 different. How can that be? Someone is doing it wrong.

One of my favorite examples of proper valuation occurred back in the 2000 season. Before the season, many published dollar values had Carlos Delgado earning in the high 30s or even had him as a $40 player, either because their valuation methods were incorrect or that was his "perceived" draft value.

The trouble with that was that the stats that were being projected for him (mostly around .275-40-130) were not worth that much. In actuality, those stats would have made him a $28-$29 player, as power stats were not in short supply in the draft. There is a happy ending though, as Delgado did earn $40, but only because he hit .344 that year. If he had hit his usual .270 for that time, people would have vastly overpaid. Sometimes it pays to be lucky.

If you want to find out a proper way of doing valuation, I'm sure with a little sleuthing you can find a place that know what it is talking about. Just avoid the two words "standings gain" or the acronym "SGP" like the plague if you see it.

At-Bats = Production

To continue the equation: Production=Value=Fantasy Points. Especially if your league is 5x5, with extra quantitative categories, it is important to get as many at-bats out of your hitters as you can, to increase your rate of accumulating homers, runs scored, RBIs and steals. Ideally, you want an everyday starter at every position, or, at the very worst if you are in a deep league, left-handed hitters in platoon situations. This goes for draft leagues as well. To help facilitate that from a dollar standpoint:

At least 80 percent of your budget goes to hitting

You've probably already heard the old adages that go something like: "Pitching is riskier, so spend more on hitting." How about some numbers instead: Studies have shown that as much as 30 percent or more of the eventual pitching value in a league, is not available on draft day (meaning on Opening Day rosters). Hitting tends to run around 10%. You have a much better chance of finding quality pitching than hitting in the free-agent pool. Thus, spend a lot on hitting on draft day.

Load up on cheap starting pitching

Like I mentioned above with at-bats, innings pitched also equals production as well. By accumulating more innings pitched than your competitors, you have a better chance of getting more wins and strikeouts. Don't spend more than $15 on any pitcher, preferably no more than $10. If you have a reserve list, load up with more starters. If you throw enough spaghetti at the well, eventually a piece or two sticks.

Two years ago in the AL Tout Wars Expert League, I managed to get Kenny Rogers and Tim Wakefield in the reserve round. This past year, it was Cliff Lee, Darrell May and Gil Meche. The more starters you roster, the better your chance of catching some diamonds in the rough (or sticking spaghetti.) You can always get rid of those that don't pan out.

Draft for value; trade for balance

You'll notice in the last section that I didn't mention saves (if your league uses them). People spend a lot of money trying to chase saves on draft day. That is money that can be better spent elsewhere. You can always trade for saves later, when you have some in-season track records to go by and closers become a little more established. I'm not saying punt a category entirely, but punt it on draft day. There is a difference. Get as much value as you can on draft day and trade your excess for anything you might need during the season. Spending 80 percent of your budget on hitting should give you the cushion to deal for help in the categories where you are weakest.

Of course, no strategy is foolproof, and winning a title is also largely based on your in-season management, injuries and, of course, luck. What this method does do though, is give you a solid foundation from which to build a championship season. On draft day, that is all you are looking for.

Jason Grey is the publisher of Mastersball.com, a site for fantasy baseball analysis, insight, and opinion, and a two time defending Tout Wars Experts league champion.