Grey Matter

Forecasting next year's surprise pitchers now

By Jason Grey, Special to SI.com

Jeremy Bonderman won't be losing 20 games again, but he could be on his way toward winning 20 sometime soon. Tom Pidgeon/Getty Images

So where are they coming from next year?

Who, you ask?

The Oliver Perezes, the Jaret Wrights and the Jason Marquises of 2005.

All three of these players were on my must-get list this year, for projected price/performance ratio, and all three have hit big.

(Before I pat myself too much on the back, I also had Cliff Lee and Scott Schoeneweis on that short list as well, but let's not talk about that, shall we? The last one was Jeremy Affeldt, who also panned out. Four out of six isn't bad when three of them have been exceptional. Am I rationalizing? Let's move on.)

After the 2003 season, all three of those pitchers had put together less than desirable fantasy seasons. Wright had posted an 8.37 ERA in 47 innings in San Diego and was going to be lucky to be drafted. Perez had a 5.47 ERA last year between San Diego and Pittsburgh. Jason Marquis had ERA's of 5.53 and 5.04 the last two seasons in Atlanta, and didn't look like he was going to fulfill his promise.

Of course, we know what happened. Wright fell under Leo Mazzone's tutelage, stayed healthy for the first time in years, and turned back the clock to 1997. Marquis, conversely, got away from Mazzone, with whom he constantly clashed, and found the perfect mentor in Dave Duncan in St. Louis to put it all together. Perez already showed glimpses of what he can do with his 10.02 K/9 last year even while putting up a poor ERA, and took the next step up this year by improving his command as he gained more major league experience.

So where are next year's pitchers that can go from the outhouse to the penthouse? Here are some candidates, who currently have 2004 ERAs that are in the stratosphere. And when I say stratosphere, I mean stratosphere.

Jose Acevedo, Cincinnati: Still relatively young, but needs to learn you can't just throw your fastball by everybody. His first 10 starts this year went well, but the flyball pitcher started giving up too many homers. The talent is there, the command now needs to develop.

Darrell May, Kansas City: Has had groin troubles that have left him far short of 100 percent for most of the year. In actuality, 2003 will go down as his career year, but people will write him off in 2005 as a one-year wonder, which he isn't. He's good enough to be serviceable and will be had for a rock bottom price next year.

Cliff Lee, Cleveland: For a good portion of the year, Lee was looking to join those other hits on my list instead of being one of the misses, but the bottom line is he has tired out. He has a slight frame and has some injury history, so his stamina isn't where you would like it to be for a starter. He has the stuff, now he needs to get stronger. His strikeout rates and his performance for the first two months are encouraging and he'll only be 26 on Opening Day 2005

Kyle Lohse, Minnesota: Needs to add another pitch to his arsenal, and is trying to do so with a sinker, but it has been very inconsistent all year, as has his command. Also 26 on Opening Day (younger than many people assume), he isn't far off from being a consistently effective pitcher.

Matt Mantei, Arizona: Lost year due to injury, and he's had his share of them, and others' shares too. Could be a perfect fit for a team like Pittsburgh that likes to sign cheap closers who have had success in the past.

Ben Hendrickson, Milwaukee: Like Jeff Francis of the Rockies, minor league success has not translated to major league success yet. Just needs to find his command on the major league level, and stop nibbling. He'll be a good one eventually, but he wasn't quite ready this year.

Joe Valentine, Cincinnati: His 9.22 ERA was mostly the result of one bad start (and a recent bad relief outing.) Can't find the plate at times, but can be a useful setup man that can close in a pinch. At least for this year, Dave Miley picked him to close ahead of Ryan Wagner when Danny Graves went down.

David Aardsma, Giants: Rushed to the majors before he was ready, but there are lots of encouraging signs that this kid could eventually be a solid big league closer. Working on adding a changeup to help take that next step up.

Mike Wood, Kansas City: He's not this bad, really. Doesn't throw hard, and operates on a thin margin for error, but he should be a good No. 4 starter in the major leagues. The Royals will keep giving him the ball every fifth day and the experience will be good for him to prepare for 2005.

Joaquin Benoit, Texas: You get the feeling that one of these years he is going to put it together after we've all tired of waiting for him to break out. 8.03 K/9, not a terrible ratio, but man, he just can't keep the ball in the yard. That is the only thing keeping him from going to that next level. If he can keep that ball down in the zone and still stay effective, we could see a breakout next year. I also think that if it is going to happen, next year may be his last opportunity.

Ryan Vogelsong, Pittsburgh: Throws the heck out of the ball, now needs to repeat his mechanics on his other pitches. It's not showing up in the results this year, but there is some intriguing talent in his arm. Potential closer candidate?

Scott Elarton, Cleveland: Next year's Jaret Wright? Was as good a prospect as any before injuries and Colorado.

Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit: Next year's Oliver Perez? On the surface, no improvement in ERA this year (5.56 vs. 5.60), but look further: K/9 up from six to eight, and opponents' OPS down from .832 to .733. It's starting to come together.

Jason Grey is the publisher of Mastersball.com, a site for fantasy baseball analysis, insight, and opinion, and a two-time defending Tout Wars experts league champion.