NL Report

It's never too early to start looking for sleeper picks

By Jason Grey, Special to SI.com

Long time readers know that I always qualify these "sleeper" lists by making sure that I mention the inherent subjectivity in using the word "sleeper." One man's sleeper is another man's guy he has had rostered for the last eight years because he is in a league where you can draft the kid down the block with a good arm and stash him away on your 40-man roster.

In a general sense, we are looking at players that could see nice surges in value in 2005. To me that kind of qualifies as a sleeper, especially if it's not a hot rookie like Gavin Floyd, or a guy rebounding from injury like Austin Kearns. With that in mind, here are some guys I am starting to key in on for 2005.

ARIZONA: The Diamondbacks are interested in re-signing Steve Finley, but may not be able to, especially since Finley would love to play for the Padres. Danny Bautista may also be elsewhere, which puts the onus on Luis Terrero to step up. Terrero has a ton of speed (but still needs some refinement on the basepaths) and some decent pop.

ATLANTA: After his season got off to a slow start, many considered Adam LaRoche to be a bust, but he has been proving otherwise since returning from injury putting up quality .272-10-32 numbers in fewer than 300 at-bats.

CHICAGO: The bullpen has been a trouble spot for good portions of the year. Todd Wellemeyer is a sleeper who can emerge to play a prominent role. If he can stay healthy, he just needs to cut down on the walks a little bit to take that next step up. He has shown he can strike out better than a batter per inning. Also watch Jason Dubois if the organization ever decides to give him some meaningful playing time.

CINCINNATI: I've already written about Jose Acevedo here, and as I mentioned, Kearns will be no surprise to anyone, but watch Felipe Lopez, who seems to finally starting to fulfill his offensive potential after being rushed to the major leagues and then getting hurt.

COLORADO: I am on record about Brian Fuentes getting into the Rockies' 2005 closer derby. Clint Barmes should get a regular role next year, depending on how the Rockies' roster shakes out in the off-season, and I like Barmes' offensive potential a bit more than most pundits.

FLORIDA: No real candidates on this team. There were a couple of intriguing catching possibilities, but the arrival of Paul Lo Duca changed that. The fifth starter spot should be wide open in 2005, and there are sleeper possibilities for whoever gets that role.

HOUSTON: Chris Burke may step in to play second base full time if the Astros decline their $9 million option on Jeff Kent. Burke could be a useful everyday player at a bargain price.

LOS ANGELES: Edwin Jackson is up to 98 on the gun again but really can't be considered a sleeper for next year despite his 2004 performance. Quality setup men on the other hand, are routinely undervalued, and Yhency Brazoban is just that.

MILWAUKEE: Chris Capuano may be a perfect endgame starter grab next year if he can stay healthy. Chad Moeller is not .215 hitter and could produce $10 worth of value for a $1 investment. Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks get all the prospect publicity (and rightfully so), but Dave Krynzel and J.J. Hardy may contribute next year as well.

MONTREAL: Jon Rauch will be an overlooked pitcher in NL-only leagues. He's still only 26 on Opening Day, and could finally start fulfilling some of his promise. A real gambling man may want to take a look at John Patterson, but after all the injuries he has been through, he may never develop consistency.

NEW YORK: Jason Phillips is a no-brainer to rebound. His 2003 numbers were not a fluke. Bartolome Fortunato may wind up being a key man and could have surprising value.

PHILADELPHIA: It's time for Brett Myers to start putting it together consistently from start to start.

PITTSBURGH: Will the Pirates give J.J. Davis some playing time? There is definite sleeper potential if he can stay healthy and get 400 at-bats. A healthy Sean Burnett can be very effective. The bullpen picture is too muddled at this point, especially as the Pirates often sign a cheap veteran to close.

SAN DIEGO: Xavier Nady: bat in need of a defensive home. Ryan Klesko: a year further removed from shoulder surgery and the power should start to come back. Side note because I wanted a third use of a colon as punctuation in this paragraph: Has Scott Linebrink had the quietest dominant fantasy season you've seen in a while?

SAN FRANCISCO: I, for one, am not betting on Dustin Hermanson lasting the whole 2005 season as the closer, which puts names like David Aardsma and Merkin Valdez (both Felipe Alou favorites) into the mix. It's possible that Hermanson's niche is indeed in the pen for his stamina-challenged arm, but be sure to back him up just in case. Noah Lowry is an intriguing cheap starter play for 2005.

ST. LOUIS: Of course, this one is utterly predictable: Rick Ankiel. Hey, wouldn't you take a chance on him if he looked good in Spring Training 2005? Of course, you would, even if (or perhaps especially if) you got burned on him before. Things are looking positive right now, and besides, he owes us, right?

Jason Grey is the publisher of Mastersball.com, a site for fantasy baseball analysis, insight, and opinion, and a two-time defending Tout Wars experts league champion.