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Posted: Tuesday March 22, 2004 12:08 PM
By David Sabino, SI.com
After a decade of out-pitching their opponents to win the NL East, last season the Braves took the crown by out-hitting everyone. Now that free agency has claimed their top two offensive threats, Javy Lopez and Gary Sheffield, the Braves are no longer the favorites to win the division. Best player
It's tempting to select Russ Ortiz, who had a league-best 21 victories last season, but he'll be hard-pressed to repeat that accomplishment. Therefore, the choice is 26-year-old centerfielder Andruw Jones, who has already hit 221 home runs, had 675 RBIs and six Gold Gloves in his young career. He'll mainly be batting cleanup this season, so look for Jones to have career highs in home runs and RBIs, although his base-stealing prowess has diminished.
On the decline
Would you believe John Smoltz? That's hard to fathom given his performance last season (45 saves, 1.12 ERA) but Smoltz says that the next serious elbow injury he suffers will likely cause him to retire. His numbers are outstanding but if you select him you'll be playing with fire.
Position up for grabs
Third base: Former utility man Mark DeRosa is the prohibitive favorite to replace Vinny Castilla, who signed with Colorado. Playing every day, DeRosa could hit 20 home runs. So far in spring training he's been holding off the challenge of Georgia native and professional strikeout victim Russell Branyan, and to a lesser extent former top prospect Wilson Betemit, who is looking to fill DeRosa's old utility role.
Cheap source of steals
Eli Marrero is one of the few players who can play centerfield and catcher, and he's recovered from the ankle injury which hobbled him for most of last season. Although he won't have a starting slot to begin the season, his versatility makes him a virtual lock to appear in 140 games, which should equate to 15 steals.
Should something happen to Smoltz
Although it looks as if newly acquired righty Antonio Alfonseca would get the nod in the event Smoltz went down, last season Bobby Cox turned to Will Cunnane, who saved three games in less than a week down the stretch. He has an above-average fastball and opposing hitters batted just .189 against him.
Don't believe the hype
John Thomson's career stats (42-63, 4.93 ERA and 1.39 whip) don't look impressive, but last season he very effective at times for Texas. A poor-man's Greg Maddux, Thomson relies on location and changing speeds. Renowned pitching coach Leo Mazzone should squeeze a 15-win, sub-4.00 ERA season from him.
Don't forget
J.D. Drew, Johnny Estrada, Marcus Giles
Don't bother
Julio Franco, Eddie Perez, Jaret Wright
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