Myths, realities of national title teams

Defense, turnover creation matter -- but star QBs, veteran coaches don't

By Stewart Mandel, SI.com

Tennessee's 1998 team was one of four over the past decade to win a national title without a top-30 offense. Vincent Laforet/Getty Images

Myths, realities of title teams What does it really take to win a national championship? By Stewart Mandel Applying the formula Five teams that fit the mold in 2004, and three "contenders" that don't. By Stewart Mandel Profile of a Champion: A statistical breakdown of the 12 national champions from the past 10 years. • Athlon 2004 Previews: All 117 I-A teams • TV Guide: 10 games to watch in '04 • National TV schedule | '04-'05 bowl schedule  And much more ... 8/5  Return of the RBs 8/6  The true freshmen 8/10  SI's Top 25 8/11  ACC preview 8/12  Big 12 preview 8/13  Big East preview 8/16  Big Ten preview 8/17  Pac-10 preview 8/18  SEC preview 8/19  C-USA, Mt. West, MAC 8/20  Inds., WAC, Sun Belt 8/23  SI's All-Americans 8/24  SI's Heisman Preview 8/25  Bowl Projections 8/26  SI.com's Crystal Ball 8/30  Power Rankings

Mack Brown's Texas teams have posted double-digit victories each of the past three seasons. They've recruited some of the nation's most coveted prospects, broken all kinds of school records and churned out an assembly line of NFL Draft picks.

For all their accomplishments, however, the Longhorns have yet to ascend that final step up the ladder of the college football hierarchy and claim the sport's most coveted prize: the national championship. An enormous state full of fans are beginning to grumble, and much of their criticism is focused on what they believe is an overly conservative offensive system. So last winter, Brown commissioned a little research project -- compiling the statistical rankings of all the most recent national champions to search for common threads. "My job is to figure out what we need to do to win," Brown said. "So I said, 'Let's look at the teams that have won it from the '90s to now, and let's look at it from a factual standpoint rather than an emotional one.'"

What did he learn? That for all the attention placed on offense, the statistics point overwhelmingly toward a greater emphasis on defense. "We've heard it our whole life, that defense wins championships," Brown said. "This is something you just need to reinforce."

Expanding on Texas' research, SI.com did its own analysis of the past 10 years of national champions (which comprises 12 teams due to split championships in 1997 and 2003), including a review of statistical rankings and performances in 10 major categories, as well as rosters, schedules, recruiting rankings and other areas, all to find out what truly constitutes the formula for a title team.

With the data as evidence, here are five myths and five realities about national champions:

Myth: You need an explosive offense.

Division I-A's all-time winningest coach and owner of two crystal footballs, Bobby Bowden, never ceases to be amused by what he feels are the misplaced concerns of his fan base. "When people ask about our football team, the first thing they mention is [quarterback] Chris Rix," Bowden mused. "Defense is where you win. I saw Ohio State win a ballgame last year where they didn't even score a touchdown offensively. You've only got to do so much offensively to win, but you have to play great defense."

Indeed, while many of the 12 teams studied did have highly ranked offenses, others, such as 2002 Ohio State, ranked 70th in the country in total offense. Three others -- '03 LSU, '98 Tennessee and '97 Michigan -- fell outside the top 30. As for the notion that you have to be able to run the football? Only four of the 12 title teams ranked in the top 20 in rushing yards -- and three of those were Nebraska teams that relied on the option -- while another four finished outside the top 45, including a 1999 FSU team that was ranked 83rd. Even the idea of a balanced offense doesn't seem nearly as important as some coaches preach; only five of the 12 teams had rushing and passing averages within 100 yards of each other.

Reality: You have to stop the run.

Of all the categories SI.com examined, none proved a more common thread than this one. Amazingly, nine of the 12 teams ranked in the top 10 nationally in rushing defense, all nine allowing less than 100 yards per game. Only one, 2001 Miami, got away with allowing more than 110. In fact, last year's co-national champs, USC (60.2) and LSU (67.0), had the two lowest averages of any team. "A good defense starts with defending the middle of the field, and that starts with being able to stop the run," LSU coach Nick Saban said.

Said Lou Holtz, who won a national title at Notre Dame in 1988: "The ability of a defense to dominate and stop the run forces you into a one-dimensional game. You come out wanting to play ball control, field position, but by the second quarter, you're down by 17 and you're forced to throw."

Myth: The best teams have a
veteran, star quarterback.

Quarterback Matt Mauck wasn't the star of LSU 2003 team, but he was still a key to its title run. Jamie Squire/Getty Images

You hear it every season. Watch out for Team A because they've got (insert big-name QB here). Team B is going to struggle because they don't have anyone back at quarterback. In reality, some of the game's most recognizable quarterbacks of the past decade -- Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Chris Simms -- left college without a ring, while such lesser-regarded names as Tee Martin, Craig Krenzel and Matt Mauck did win a ring. In fact, 10 of the 12 starting quarterbacks analyzed here led their teams to titles in just their first or second years as the starter. And only four reached the much-celebrated 3,000-yards-passing mark.

While national title quarterbacks aren't necessarily glamorous, however, they do have certain traits. Almost unanimously, the QBs in question were accurate (all completed at least 55 percent of their passes), productive (seven threw at least 20 touchdowns) and avoided mistakes (all had positive touchdown-to-interception ratios, at least 2-to-1 for eight of the QBs).

"Sometimes the charisma of a quarterback is as important to a football team's success as his ability," said Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer, whose team won a national title in '98 with first-year starter Martin. "A lot of people would not call [Mauck] at LSU last year a 'star quarterback,' but he was the key to what was happening offensively. His decisions put them in position to win."

Reality: Both the offensive and defensive
lines should be dominant.

Sack-masters These seven title teams recorded twice as many sacks as they allowed (1994-2003) Yr. Team Sacks Given up Ratio '95 Nebraska 32 0 N/A '97 Nebraska 44 4 11:1 '01 Miami 39 4 9.8:1 '94 Nebraska 43 6 7.2:1 '03 USC 55 15 3.7:1 '97 Michigan 38 18 2.1:1 '03 LSU 44 22 2:1 MAILBAG MAILBAG Stewart Mandel will answer questions from SI.com readers each week in his mailbag. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

The numbers are staggering. Last season, USC produced 55 sacks while allowing just 15. In 2001, Miami gave up just four sacks the entire season. In 1995, Nebraska gave up zero. Seven of the 12 national championship teams averaged at least three sacks per contest on defense, and seven also had at least double the amount of sacks on defense as it allowed on offense.

"The game is won in the trenches," said N.C. State coach Chuck Amato, an assistant on Florida State's two national title teams, "and the defensive line is just as important as the offensive line. If you can harass the quarterback and handle the running game with four down linemen, you can do whatever you want."

Reality: Create more turnovers
than you allow.

It's no coincidence that all 12 national championship teams had a positive turnover margin. Seven of the 12 ranked in the top 20 nationally, with four teams (1995 Nebraska, '98 Tennessee, '01 Miami and '03 USC) in the top six. That 'Canes team in particular made a living in the department, intercepting 27 passes and forcing 18 fumbles for a stunning average of plus-2.4 turnovers per game, which ranked No. 1 in the country and No. 1 among the title teams.

"When we're really good, we've created a lot of turnovers and scored with those turnovers," Miami coach Larry Coker said. "There's more ways to score on defense than offense."

Last year, behind mistake-prone QB Brock Berlin, the 'Canes actually lost more turnovers (35) than they gained (31). Not surprisingly, it was their first two-loss season in four years.

Myth: You need to have
top-10 recruiting classes.

Each February, diehard fans pound the recruiting Web sites to find out how their team fared in the annual signing derby, as measured by several noted recruiting analysts. During the timespan studied here, however, highly ranked recruiting classes did not have a huge impact on whether or not a team won the national championship. For each national champion, SI.com averaged the SuperPrep rankings of the team's five preceding recruiting classes. Seven of the 12 teams had an average lower than 10th, including the vaunted 1995 Nebraska (17.6) and 2001 Miami (14.0) teams.

"The difference between No. 1 and No. 20," SuperPrep's Allen Wallace said, "is probably about two or three big names."

Case in point: In 1999 Texas landed the top-rated quarterback in the country, Chris Simms, while Miami's QB signee, Ken Dorsey, was only the No. 62 prospect on the West Coast. Texas had the No. 1-rated class, Miami the 11th. If the two quarterbacks were switched, Wallace said, Texas would have fallen from No. 1 and Miami might have moved into the top five. Yet without Dorsey, the 'Canes probably wouldn't have won their championship in 2001.

Reality: You need at least one gamebreaker
on both sides of the ball.

Michael Jenkins' fourth-down TD catch against Purdue in 2002 saved the Buckeyes' title season. Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

As mentioned previously, you don't need a razzle-dazzle offense to win a national title. Just ask 2002 Ohio State. But sooner or later, you're going to need someone to step up and make a big play. As vanilla as the Buckeyes' offense was, they did have a future NFL first-round pick at wide receiver, Michael Jenkins, who made game-saving fourth-down catches against both Purdue and Miami, as well as a first-round cornerback, Chris Gamble, whose numerous late-game interceptions helped make up for the fact that the OSU's pass defense was actually mediocre (95th in the country).

Go down the list of other champions and you'll find the same thing. LSU had just the 43rd-rated pass offense last season, but receiver Skyler Green caught a game-winning 34-yard touchdown against Georgia and scored on a 24-yard run in the Sugar Bowl. Tennessee averaged less than 200 yards per game through the air in 1998 but had receiver Peerless Price, who made a crucial 79-yard catch against Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl.

"That's really the beauty of football," Miami's Coker said. "Just a few players make the difference. You look at Ohio State, they had 14 players drafted last year. Obviously they had some difference-makers on that team."

Myth: You've got to start high
in the polls to finish high.

Recent changes to the BCS ratings system that put more emphasis on the AP and Coaches' polls have raised concern that a team will have to start the season at or near the top of the preseason polls if it hopes to reach the national championship game. However, history has shown that where you start tends to have little bearing on where you finish. Three of the past five and five of the past eight national champs began the year ranked 10th or lower in the AP poll, including 2000 Oklahoma (19th), 2002 Ohio State (13th) and 2003 LSU (14th). And Virginia Tech, 13th in 1999, reached the title game. All but the Tigers finished the regular season undefeated.

"Sometimes you start looking at the polls too much, and all of a sudden you forget to play," Hokies coach Frank Beamer said. "To get to the championship game, you're probably going to need to be undefeated, and if you're undefeated, I think you're going to end up there regardless of where you started out."

Myth: Coaching experience matters.

In any job, you would think someone who's been a head coach for several decades, like a Bobby Bowden or Joe Paterno, would have a considerable advantage over someone who just started. But while veterans Bowden and longtime Nebraska coach Tom Osborne did win four titles between them over the past decade, Coker and Oklahoma's Bob Stoops also led championship teams in their first and second seasons, respectively, as head coach. Overall, five of the 12 national champions were led by men who'd been Division I-A head coaches for less than three years.

What makes it possible for a virtual newbie to climb the ladder so quickly? Said Amato, now in his fourth year as head coach at still-developing N.C. State: "What schools did those guys win those national championships at?" The answer: USC, Ohio State, Miami, Oklahoma and Michigan. "They went into a program where everything was right in place."

Reality: Luck has to be on your side.

When it comes to national champions, there are two kinds of luck. The conventional kind -- like Arkansas quarterback Clint Stoerner's unexplainable fumble that saved Tennessee's 1998 title quest, or Nebraska's miraculous touchdown catch off a kicked ball against Missouri in '97.

Then there's the more subtle kind, like, say, how the schedule falls. It just so happens that for 10 of the 12 national champions, their toughest game of the season (by opponent's record) happened to come at home. In 2002, Ohio State played its three toughest contests -- including the Michigan game -- at the Horseshoe. Issues like injuries, weather and bye weeks all can play a big role in determining the national champion as well.

"You can pick out about 12 teams [before the season] that have a shot," Florida State's Bowden said. "One of them is going to get lucky and not get injuries and get a couple breaks you can't explain that go in their favor, and that's going to win them a national championship."