Marquee Matchup

Colts, Chiefs clash in evenly matched Divisional playoff

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST Arrowhead Stadium (79,451)

The two teams playing in this AFC Divisional matchup share more than just their exemplary records. Both clubs feature Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks and running backs, consistent offensive line play, standout special teams players and defenses that rose to the occasion in their last game. The Colts have a 7-1 record on the road, topped only by the Chiefs' perfect season at home.

Chiefs offense vs. Colts defense

Priest Holmes AP

Stockpiled with five Pro Bowl players, the high-powered Kansas City offense ended the season first in the league in points per game (30.3) and second in both total yards (369.4) and passing yards (248.8) per game. QB Trent Green threw for 4,039 yards (second in the league) while posting a 92.6 pass rating. He completed the bulk of his passes to RB Priest Holmes (74 receptions, 9.3 average) and Tony Gonzalez, who led all tight ends in receptions (71), yards (916) and touchdowns (10).

While the passing game accounted for 52 plays that gained 20 or more yards this season, much of its success came from Holmes and the offensive line. Holmes finished the season with 13 runs over 20 yards and set the NFL record for touchdowns in a season with 27. The offensive line, which has remained intact for 32 consecutive games, is outstanding in its ability to pull and trap on run plays and also gave up the fewest sacks in the league.

The Colts' defense atoned for its terrible showing against the Broncos in Week 15 by focusing on such basic skills as gap control and tackling in the rematch. Indianapolis gave up 146 rushing yards, but 74 of those came in the fourth quarter when the outcome was already settled. By taking away the running game early, Indianapolis forced Jake Plummer to throw against a pass rush that would not allow him to step up or scramble. Plummer, who threw just seven interceptions all season and was sacked only 14 times, suffered two picks by David Macklin and was pulled down twice behind the line of scrimmage.

This week, the Colts' defense, which likes to drop one of the safeties into the box to play run support, must guard against biting on play-action fakes or it will be burned by Gonzalez.

Colts offense vs. Chiefs defense

Peyton Manning AP

Peyton Manning not only answered the critics with a playoff victory in last week's wild card game, but also did it in dramatic style. Manning was 22 of 26 for 377 yards and five touchdowns for his second perfect passing day (158.3 QB rating) of the season. With Manning eliminating the audibles and dummy calls at the line of scrimmage, the offense exploded in the first half, as both Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley racked up more than 100 receiving yards before halftime.

HB Edgerrin James only had 78 yards on the ground but was successful in the early stages of the game, setting up Manning for the play-action series. The decision to move starting center Jeff Saturday to right guard to neutralize Baltimore's Trevor Pryce and allow Manning to take snaps from Tupe Peko in Indianapolis' biggest game of the year turned out to be a stroke of genius.

The Kansas City defense employs a cover 2 scheme with a quick and aggressive front that can get pulled out of position by misdirection plays. Although the Chiefs were one of the healthiest teams throughout the season, the loss of MLB Mike Maslowski had a dramatic effect on their ability to defend the run. Lack of depth on the defensive line has limited their ability to rotate fresh bodies into the defense, which also explains their breakdowns against good running teams in the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs ranked 19th in points allowed (20.8) and 29th in total defense (356.7 yards per game) but are a force to be reckoned with at home. During Kansas City's current franchise-record 13-game winning streak at home, the defense has allowed just 101 rushing yards per game and an average of 11 offensive points per game.

All-Pro return specialist Dante Hall led the league in punt returns (16.3 average) and was fourth in the NFL in kick returns (25.9 average). His four special teams touchdowns included the game-winning points against Baltimore in Week 4 and Denver in Week 5. Forty-three-year-old Morten Andersen has a wealth of experience in pressure games and made 16 of 20 field goals this season, missing only once at Arrowhead Stadium.

Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt added two more field goals against Denver to his regular-season record of 41 consecutive kicks. DE Raheem Brock blocked a Broncos third-quarter field goal attempt last week. The Colts' cover units ranked in the bottom half of the league this season and allowed two touchdowns on kickoffs. Indianapolis cannot allow Hall to gain field position for the top scoring team in the league.

Chiefs TE Tony Gonzalez vs. SS Donald Strickland. Gonzalez is a mismatch for most safeties in the league, especially a rookie backup who will be called on to support the run. If Strickland bites on play-action fakes, Gonzalez will have a big day.

Chiefs RG Will Shields vs. DT Larry Tripplett. The 32-year-old Pro Bowl right guard is a solid run blocker that Holmes likes to run behind when the plays go inside the tackles. Tripplett uses his speed and quickness to his advantage when chasing plays but has problems anchoring at the point of attack.

Colts WR Brandon Stokley vs. DC William Bartee. The loss of Dallas Clark forced Indianapolis to use more three-receiver sets, allowing Stokley to emerge as a deep threat. Stokley caught a touchdown for the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV, and last week's 87-yard TD catch set a Colts postseason record. Bartee has the size to play press coverage and throw Stokley off his routes. If the scheme calls for Bartee to play a soft zone, Stokley will have the operating room necessary to produce big plays.

Kansas City finished the season ranked seventh in third-down production (41.8 percent) with a 46.5 percent average in its last three games. The defense was less consistent over the last three games, allowing the Lions (57 percent) and Vikings (58 percent) to convert at will before clamping down on the Bears (13 percent). Priest Holmes was unstoppable on third-and-one, converting all four attempts with two for touchdowns. When the Chiefs throw the ball, keep your eyes on Eddie Kennison, who converted his four attempts in the last three weeks, one for a score.

Third-down statistics help explain Indianapolis' domination of the Broncos last week after being dominated by Denver in Week 15. In their first meeting, the Colts managed only a 22 percent success rate on third down; last week the number jumped to 75 percent when Denver decided to play soft corners, something it didn't do in their earlier matchup.

Sixty-seven-year-old Dick Vermeil has no intention of retiring anytime soon. The AP Coach of the Year is the only man to lead a team (St. Louis) to victory in the Super Bowl after coming out of retirement and now, after returning from retirement a second time, has a chance to repeat history with the Chiefs. In an effort to motivate the defense, which gave up 45 points twice in a three-week period, Vermeil researched home-field statistics to suggest an advantage for the much-maligned unit.

Until last week's victory, Tony Dungy was riding a four-game postseason losing streak, punctuated by not scoring a single touchdown in any of those contests. The Colts won their first playoff home game since moving to Indianapolis in 1984, and Manning finally proved he could win a big game. Now that the weight of winning in the postseason has been lifted, Dungy must guard against a letdown this week in Kansas City.

Both clubs have marquee backs and solid running games that are employed early and often to set up play-action fakes, the heart of their passing games. Expect the Colts to run James on the stretch play, hoping to catch the Kansas City defense out of position. With Harrison typically drawing double coverage, look for Indianapolis to use three-receiver sets, relying heavily on Stokley and Reggie Wayne to make things happen.

The Colts' defense has the speed to run down the outside run but lacks the bulk to stop the inside run, a favorite of Holmes and the Chiefs' offensive line. Cover 2 defenses are susceptible to tight end routes splitting the safeties, and there is no finer player at that position than Gonzalez. In five postseason games in cold-weather environments, the Colts have been outscored 148-61 with only one victory.

The lead will change hands several times, but the Chiefs should hang on to win at home.

Written by Dan Schwab of Real Football^TM. Throughout the season, the Real Football^TM staff will bring you an "insiders" analysis of key matchups in the league. The Real Football^TM staff includes coaches, players, scouts and other experts with real experience inside the NFL, who give you access to a unique, exclusive look inside the game.