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Who's Next?

The last five majors have been won by first-timers. If that trend continues, SI's experts think that one of these dozen players will win

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The most curious by-product of Tiger Woods's so-called slump in the major championships (he has gone 0 for 6 since the 2002 U.S. Open, the last of the eight he has won) is that the last five Grand Slam winners -- Rich Beem ('02 PGA), Mike Weir ('03 Masters), Jim Furyk ('03 U.S. Open), Ben Curtis ('03 British Open) and Shaun Micheel ('03 PGA) -- have all been players who had previously been majorless. We asked a group of Tour pros and golf insiders to name the players, based on their past records, recent play and ability to handle mighty Augusta National, who are most likely to continue the first-timer trend next week at the Masters. (Everyone considered Phil Mickelson, who has come in third in the last three Masters, too obvious a choice for this exercise.) Once we came up with our Dangerous Dozen, we took the list to a Tour pro who, on condition of anonymity, pointed out the strengths and weaknesses in their games, as well as what has to happen for each player to break through at Augusta.

 
Stuart Appleby
Age: 32
World rank: 9th
Worldwide wins: 7
Majors: 28
Best finish: T2nd, 2002 British
He's missed the cut in five of his last six Masters, which says he's not crazy about Augusta, but he's playing too well this year to disregard.... As we saw at Bay Hill, Stuart's problem is driving accuracy; he's going to be hitting too many flyers out of the rough for his iron game to be a factor. His fortunes will depend on his scrambling, and he lacks creativity.... You never see him try to hit a big slice or a big hook; he seems more concerned with making a good swing than a good shot.
Final fore: I like his chances of winning a major someday, but my gut says it'll be a British Open or a PGA, not a Masters.

 
Thomas Bjorn
Age: 33
World rank: 24th
Worldwide wins: 9
Majors: 26
Best finish: T2nd, 2000, '03 British
If ever a guy should've won a British Open (my apologies to Jean Van de Velde), it was Bjorn last year. The one mistake you can't make at 16 is missing right, and on Sunday he did. He compounded the error by getting frustrated and flailing away in the bunker as if he were playing a $2 match at his club. Thomas has the game but not the head.... His swing isn't a wow, but he hits stellar shots.... He's long, averaging 301 yards off the tee in the U.S., and he was fifth in putting and 13th in scoring in Europe last year.
Final fore: He has to get out of his own way and play 72 holes without a mental hiccup.

 
Chad Campbell
Age: 29
World rank: 13th
Worldwide wins: 2
Majors: 8
Best finish: 2nd, 2003 PGA
Chad is going to win a major, maybe a bunch of 'em. I look at him and see Ben Hogan. Like Hogan, his lower body starts moving in the other direction before he completes his backswing. You get a sense that he's being pulled into motion, a most efficient way to hit a golf ball. He has one of the best swings I've ever seen.... But Chad isn't going to win at Augusta until he improves his putting. He was 69th on Tour last year.
Final fore: Course changes have put more emphasis on ball-striking at the Masters and have de-emphasized shots around the greens, which should be a better fit for Campbell.

 
Paul Casey
Age: 26
World rank: 28th
Worldwide wins: 2
Majors: 5
Best finish: 66th, 2003 PGA
Paul isn't well known in the U.S. but should be. He was Europe's rookie of the year in 2001 and at Arizona State was the first Pac-10 player to win three straight league titles. He also broke Tiger's conference-tournament record by five shots and Phil Mickelson's school record for scoring average.... Did I mention that he's the nicest guy but will still step on your neck on the course?... This is his first Masters, so don't expect much. He's been a dud in the majors, missing the cut four times with a combined score of 42 over. Ouch!
Final fore: He's a superstar in waiting, but he'll have to turn his game up a notch in the majors.

 
Darren Clarke
Age: 35
World rank: 15th
Worldwide wins: 13
Majors: 34
Best finish: T2nd, 1997 British Open
Augusta was the site of his epiphany last year, when he decided he needed to lose weight. Trouble is, I've never seen anyone drastically change their body type and play better for the long haul. When a sturdy guy can suddenly make more of a shoulder turn and a more athletic move, it completely changes his game.... Darren has the game for Augusta. He's long and a good iron player, especially in the wind.... His scrambling isn't always the best. Neither is his putting.
Final fore: Darren is cut in the mold of Walter Hagen. If he wins the Masters, I'd definitely want to crash the champions' dinner.

 
Sergio García
Age: 24
World rank: 45th
Worldwide wins: 9
Majors: 21
Best finish: 2nd, 1999 PGA
I liked Sergio's chances more before he changed his swing. He was an artist, but they've tried to turn him into an engineer who thinks about his swing. That's a huge risk.... Sergio was one of the best drivers in the world for four years. Now he's driving it much worse but is sixth on Tour in greens hit in regulation.... His putting has declined to the point that it's a glaring weakness, which is what happens when you focus so much on the full swing.... He's not scrambling as well either.
Final fore: Sergio still has a childlike enthusiasm for the game. He can shape shots. He has all the instincts and the talent to compete at Augusta.

 
Padraig Harrington
Age: 32
World rank: 8th
Worldwide wins: 8
Majors: 23
Best finish: T5th, 2002 Masters, British; 2000 U.S. Open, 1997 British
Padraig may be too analytical. He has all the X's and O's in his head before he hits a shot. He's the Bob Estes of Europe, only a little better player.... I don't know if anyone has come so close in the majors without winning. He's in a class with Phil Mickelson.... I like everything about his game.... His pace of play could be an issue, though.
Final fore: Like Ernie Els and Greg Norman, Padraig is a great win-place-or-show bet. He's there so often, he's bound to break through and win a major, if only by accident.

 
Charles Howell
Age: 24
World rank: 30th
Worldwide wins: 1
Majors: 9
Best finish: T10th, 2003 PGA
Everybody agrees that Charles is going to be a world-beater, but he's been coached so much that he's lost his instincts. David Leadbetter has a bit of mad scientist in him, and Charles is David's lab experiment.... His swing looks a little paint-by-numbers, and there's a move at the top that doesn't look right -- he casts the club, then has to reset it on the way down.... He's played so poorly this year that I would've left him off this list if he didn't have a home-course advantage.
Final fore: Charles has the length for Augusta. I don't know if he has the finesse.

 
Fredrik Jacobson
Age: 29
World rank: 18th
Worldwide wins: 3
Majors: 7
Best finish: T5th, 2003 U.S. Open
Why does Sweden keep turning out tall, skinny, eccentric golfers who dress like bowlers? ... It's hard to believe Fredrik is already ranked so highly.... Beware of the guy with the suspect swing, because he must have some weapons to have gotten this far. Fredrik is called the Junkman because he's a better scrambler than ball striker.... I'm not surprised he's having trouble with his left elbow, the way he hangs onto the club, like Arnold Palmer.
Final fore: A great putter with a lot of self-confidence is dangerous. Ask Ben Crenshaw.

 
Jonathan Kaye
Age: 33
World rank: 17th
Worldwide wins: 2
Majors: 9
Best finish: T10th, 2003 U.S. Open
Hard to get a read on him, but all you need to know is that he took down Phil Mickelson in front of Phil's fans in golf's largest theater, in Phoenix. He doesn't care what anybody thinks.... Jonathan is one of the game's most irreverent players, and the Masters is golf's most reverent tournament. Following the rules hasn't been his strength. There's a chance the members could get into his head the way they did Lee Trevino's.... I love that he's self-taught and doesn't have a coach.
Final fore: He might be the wild card who sneaks into contention and does something crazy, like win, because he doesn't give a rip.

 
Justin Rose
Age: 23
World rank: 71st
Worldwide wins: 4
Majors: 9
Best finish: T4th, 1998 British
I played with Justin in a British Open and was impressed. He's the most seasoned 23-year-old since Seve Ballesteros.... Justin has a strong, dynamic and athletic swing.... All areas of his game are very good. He's long and straight, and he can work the ball both ways.... He needs to get one part of his game to go from good to great.... He has an air of decisiveness that I like.
Final fore: At worst, Justin is a future star. At best, he's a future superstar. He was 39th in his first Masters last year. I'd be surprised if he doesn't do much better this time.

 
Adam Scott
Age: 23
World rank: 12th
Worldwide wins: 5
Majors: 11
Best finish: T9th, 2002 Masters
I watched him win at the Deutsche Bank last year, and we all saw him at the Players. He can handle the pressure.... It's tough to find fault with his swing. Put him side by side with Tiger, and it's eerie how similar they are.... Scott has missed the cut in six majors, but he's taken to Augusta better than some other venues, coming in 23rd last year.... He has superstar potential, and if he had the putting stroke of another young Aussie, Aaron Baddeley, he'd be Tiger's main rival.
Final fore: He has the tee-to-green game and the head, but he's going to have to putt like he did at Sawgrass to win.

Photographs by Stuart Hannagan/Getty Images, David Cannon/Getty Images, Robert Beck/SI (2), Lenny Ignelzi/AP, Donald Miralle/Getty Images, Robert Beck/SI (2), Stuart Franklin/Getty Images, Darren Carroll/SI, Dave Martin/AP, Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Issue date: April 6, 2004

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