Flipping picks

Dolphins should consider entering Giants-Chargers trade talk

San Diego general manager A.J. Smith is remaining tight-lipped over the confirmed talks between the Chargers and New York Giants surrounding a potential swap of first-round draft picks. Since he won't speculate, I'll expand the possibilities to include another AFC team, Miami.

Why the Dolphins? Considering that AFC East rival New England has nine picks -- including four in the top 64 -- Miami's window of opportunity for remaining competitive with the salary-cap savvy Patriots is closing fast.

Say the Giants move from No. 4 to first overall after a trade with San Diego and also give up a second-round pick as part of the package. If that happens, the Dolphins may be tempted to trade their first-round choice (No. 20) to San Diego for its two second-rounders (No. 34 from the G-Men and its own No. 35).

The Dolphins do not have a second-round pick (Miami's choice -- No. 56 -- belongs to New England as part of a 2003 draft day deal), so they are currently looking at a pick at No. 20 and a lot of waiting until the 87th spot rolls around. Now I ask you, which would you rather have: two of the top 35 players, or two of the top 87? That's what I thought.

The Dolphins signed tackle John St. Clair during the offseason, but Dolphins head coach Dave Wannstedt cannot be comfortable with him manning front-side pass protection. And the team's other free-agent tackle signee, Damion McIntosh, is injured and it is doubtful he will be ready when the season kicks off.

If the Giants-Chargers-Dolphins scenario comes to pass, Miami could target tackles Nat Dorsey of Georgia Tech or USC's Jacob Rogers, then address its hole at safety after Brock Marion's departure.

Certainly the Chargers would be open to discussing how they could obtain two spots in the top 20, but it remains to be seen whether the Giants can live with picks No. 1 and 65, their third-round choice.

Sure, Eli Manning, the quarterback reportedly sought by the Giants, would be a safe choice, but it's not like New York is in great shape for the next four or five years. Philadelphia is the NFC East's top team, but Dallas is nipping at the Eagles' heels, while Joe Gibbs' return has buoyed Washington's hopes (though I can't say why; no move this offseason has been a difference-maker that will trim the talent gap between the Skins and the Cowboys or Eagles).

Recent history also is against the Giants. Since 1984, 43 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round in either the regular draft or supplemental draft. Only one, Dallas' Troy Aikman, started and won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him. And since the merger in 1970, 13 QBs -- Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, Steve Bartkowski, John Elway, Vinny Testaverde, Aikman, Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr and Carson Palmer -- have been selected first overall. Only Bradshaw, Plunkett, Elway and Aikman have started and won the championship game.

Will the Giants mortgage the future on a player who is, arguably, the second- or third-best QB in this draft? Only GM Ernie Accorsi and head coach Tom Coughlin can answer that, but I believe there is enough talent between Nos. 4 and 34 to offset any potential boon Manning ultimately may provide.

Nonetheless, it's no secret the Giants covet Eli Manning. A deal has been discussed with San Diego and as April 24 approaches, the talks should become more substantive. And if a trade ensues, Dolphins GM Rick Spielman will have a dilemma on his hands: Sit tight at No. 20, or try to keep up with rest of the quickly improving AFC.

B. Duane Cross is a senior producer for SI.com.